UFC Vegas 103 Gambling Preview: Should Manel Kape being a betting favorite over Asu Almabayev?
The UFC returns to the APEX for UFC Vegas 103 this weekend, headlined by a short-notice flyweight fight between Manel Kape and Asu Almabayev. Kape was supposed to face Brandon Royval in a No. 1 contender matchup, but now that’s thrown into question as the two surging flyweights duke it out atop a thoroughly forgettable fight card. Still, plenty of fights means plenty of chances to make some money.
All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Single Plays
Asu Almabayev (+176)
I’m surprised the line is this big on Saturday’s main event. I know Kape is a fan favorite and Almabayev is stepping in on short notice, but this is a tough stylistic matchup for “Starboy.” Almabayev is the exact sort of hard-nosed grinder that can ground Kape’s dangerous striking game, and though Kape has improved on the floor, he still gives up plenty of takedowns. Muhammad Mokaev won a decision over Kape with repeated takedowns, and though Almabayev isn’t the same level of athlete as Mokaev, he’s the more developed ground fighter at this stage. If Almabayev has the gas to go 25 minutes, I think he wins this one outright.
Cody Brundage (+110)
Similar to the main event, I don’t really know why Brundage isn’t the favorite in his co-main event fight with Julian Marquez. Marquez is on a three-fight losing streak and has consistently shown an inability to wrestle defensively. If Marquez doesn’t land a guillotine choke, Brundage should be able to control this fight, and if Brundage falls headlong into that, I’ll be surprised. The man has been submitted before but Marquez is a far cry from Bo Nickal and Rodolfo Vieira on the floor.
Andrea Lee (+168)
This one is probably really stupid, but I can’t help it. Lee takes on JJ Aldrich in a prelim bout on Saturday and she should win. The reason Lee is an underdog is she’s currently on a five-fight losing streak. That’s tough, but a few of those fights could’ve gone either way and Aldrich simply isn’t good. Lee can outwork Aldrich on the feet and has the superior wrestling skills to mix things up. If it weren’t for the losing streak, Lee would be a favorite.
Prop Bets
Mario Pinto by KO/TKO (-145)
Pinto makes his UFC debut on Saturday against Austen Lane and he’s a prospect to watch. Off the most reason season of Contender Series, Pinto was one of my favorite fighters and I comped him to Alex Pereira because he’s a big dude with poise who hits really hard. And what do you know, that’s the recipe to beat Lane. In his 19-fight career, Lane has lost 5 times, all by knockout, and five of Pinto’s nine career wins are by KO. A+B=C — Pinto by KO.
Danny Barlow vs. Sam Patterson Under 1.5 Rounds (-110)
In my Contender Series breakdown of Barlow, I noted that he doesn’t care much about defense. Well, that lines up well against Patterson who is also looking to end things quickly. Five of Barlow’s eight career fights have ended in the first while eight of Patterson’s 15 have done the same, including three in a row for “The Future.” This one should be short.
Wrap Up
No parlay this week as there aren’t a lot of lines I like out there and the best gimmick parlay is a Portugal Parlay with Kape and Pinto, but since I’m backing Almabayev, that’s a nonstarter.
We kept things small last week and still fell short. If only Cejudo had taken the No-Contest, things might have been different, but alas, here we are. Better luck this week, hopefully.
Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!
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