NFL Futures Picks — Which team will win the NFC?
Word’s buzzing around town, and we’re about to make a slew of new friends today. Welcome aboard to this betting thing of ours. You’ve come to the right place! What better way to put a shiny bow on this holiday season? The more, the merrier.
Today, we’re whipping out the old crystal ball to examine the current NFL futures market for a couple of +EV plays that are sure to stuff those stockings.
Strap up, strap in. Let’s go.
THE WATERCOOLER
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THE BET
Philadelphia Eagles To Win NFC #1 Seed (+170) DraftKings
Nothing says the holidays like a little acapella over a flaming trash can. My favorite plus-money future on the board takes us back to South Philly—and is actually one we began a position on about a month ago. To my surprised delight, despite modeling its likelihood to increase, the price remained stagnant. So I’m hitting it again. In the words of the great luminary and American songwriter/philosopher Britney Spears, do it to me one more time.
Philadelphia has burned like liquid hot magma throughout its 10-game win streak, going back to mid-October. To me, no one’s even close during that span in balanced domination. Philly is easily a top-tier offense, ranking fifth or better in scoring (28.3) and EPA/play (+0.10) since the Week 5 bye. And we know the defense gets after it.
PHI’s success should come as no shock with Saquon Barkley leading the NFL in rushing by a country mile behind the league’s premier offensive line. And, oh yeah, quarterback Jalen Hurts is pretty good, too. He’s scored more rushing TDs in 2024 than anyone—and also happens to be posting the best underpinning passing metrics of his career in terms of EPA/attempt (+0.26), completion rate (69.2%), passer rating (104.5), and yards per attempt (8.1). That boy is on fire.
If stopping this uniquely versatile offense doesn’t present enough of a problem, Vic Fangio’s defense certainly will. The Eagles consistently collapse interior lines, get to the quarterback, finish tackles, and present a strong secondary. No easy outs here, folks.
Right now, Philly’s D could keep an ice dragon north of Westeros, sitting at or near the top of every critical macro stat on the season:
- 17.6 Points Allowed Per Game: T-1st
- 276.5 Yards Per Game: 1st
- 4.7 Yards Per Play: 1st
- 26.1 Average Drive Distance: 1st
- 32.4% Scoring Drive Success: 4th
- 2.6 Snaps Per Splash Play: T-2nd
- 9.0% Sack Rate: T-4th
Philadelphia’s tied in wins with the Lions, whose injury report could field an entire quality unit right now. The Eagles do trail Detroit by a game in conference record (second tiebreaker), but there’s a tremendous disparity in rest-of-season strength-of-schedule from here on out. Combine that with sheer roster health and I think the Eagles are the new favorite Monday if they defeat the Commanders in the Nation’s Capital.
Combined Opponents’ Record Rest Of Season:
- MIN — 30-12 (at SEA, vs GB, at DET)
- DET — 22-20 (at CHI, at SF, vs MIN)
- PHI — 17-25 (at WAS, vs DAL, vs NYG)
THE LONGSHOT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers To Win NFC Conference (+1600) And To Win Super Bowl (+4000) MGM
Bosses asked me to get weird with this last one. Say no more—your wish is my command. Hitting on futures this late in the season comes down to pricing. Where’s the potential value the public hasn’t caught onto yet?
For the entire month since their Week 11 bye, I’ve been summarily obsessed with the Buccaneers. Watching a metric ton more football than any normal human should, it’s actually adaptive schematics and aggression on defense that draw me in like moths to the flame.
I know, I know. Defense and the Buccaneers in the same sentence sounds odd—especially after a disastrous five-game stretch in October in which they allowed +33 points and nearly 430 total yards/game. TB couldn’t stop a snowman in a sauna, I get it. Well, the NFL season is still a marathon, not a sprint. Sometimes absence makes the heart grow fonder.
That bye I alluded to before couldn’t have come at a better time. Like the mighty Phoenix, Baker Mayfield’s boys ascended from the ashes to win four straight—and look like a legitimate contender in the process. Not one to rest on his laurels, Todd Bowles went right in his bag to reconfigure their pressure packages, evident in an elevated blitz rate.
Just on its face, the laundry list of elite results across phases over the past month becomes hard to argue:
- 15.0 Points Allowed Per Game: 1st
- 276.0 Yards Allowed Per Game: 3rd
- 4.7 Yards Allowed Per Play: T-2nd
- +0.15 EPA/Play: T-2nd
- 25.2 Average Drive Distance: 2nd
- 26.7% Scoring Drive Success: 1st
- 3.6 Yards Per Rush: 3rd
- 3.9% Explosive Rush Rate: 2nd
- 36.4% Blitz Rate: 1st
- 44.6% Pressure Rate: 1st
- 80.2 Opposer Passer Rating: 2nd
- 9.6 Yards Per Reception: 2nd
- 3 Passing TD: 2nd
If I succeeded in making a compelling case for the defense, suddenly Tampa’s listed prices look like an insane value. Remember, you need not even squint to see how well the Bucs have played on offense this season—they’re top-5 in scoring (28.8), yardage (388.4), and success rate (50.5%). Bust out the microscope if you’d like on last month’s spreadsheet, but I warn you. You’ll need sunglasses. Tampa Bay is No. 1 in both point and net-yard differential since that fateful bye week. The public has been slow on this transformation, but not us…
Yes, it’s a longshot but also one that’s going to be a ton of fun to root for.
NOTE: Betting’s fun and potentially very profitable but must be done responsibly at all times. In longshot cases like this, I recommend only betting 10% or one-tenth of whatever your standard betting unit is (0.10u).
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE! And happy holidays from all of us at Fantasy Life!