College Football Playoff Update: Playoff Projections, Championship Game Best Bets, and More
As part of my work at Fantasy Life, I run a college football betting model that predicts weekly spreads and scores, while also power ranking all 134 FBS teams and projecting the college football playoff bracket. What you’ll find below is a weekly update on the best of this week’s content. I hope you find it helpful!
This Week’s Top 5
(Full Top 25 is at the end of this column)
- Texas
- Oregon
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- Notre Dame
Projected College Football Playoff Rankings
The major difference between my projected bracket and the official one put out by the College Football Playoff selection committee is they aren’t projecting out for strength of schedule and remaining opponents; I am. So while our brackets may look a little different now, I’m hoping my version will be what it looks like when the playoffs arrive.
My Top Four Playoff Teams (Receiving Byes)
- Oregon
- Texas
- SMU
- Iowa State
The Outside Looking In:
Miami, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Clemson
This Week’s Best Bet: The Conference USA Championship
Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky
Thor’s model says: Jax State -4.7
Thor’s bet: JSU -3.5
These teams met last week, with WKU hitting a game-winning 50-yard field goal with three seconds to escape with a 19-17 win.
WKU – which needed to win the game to clinch a berth into the CUSA title game – had everything to play for in that game. Jacksonville State – which had already clinched its own berth – had nothing to play for. J-State also played the end of that game with its QB2.
We cashed a Jax State +2.5 ticket in that game. And we’re returning to the well for many of the same reasons we backed JSU last week. This is what we wrote last week in this space:
”Western Kentucky has lost two straight, a surprising 12-7 upset loss to Louisiana Tech, and a 38-21 loss to Liberty last week … WKU has a really good pass defense (No. 15 success rate and No. 53 EPA/dropback). But WKU’s run defense stinks (No. 111 success rate and No. 100 yards per rush with sacks omitted). That’s a bad recipe against Jacksonville State’s offense. The Gamecocks have one of the G5’s best rushing offenses… No. 4 in standard downs rush rate and No. 5 EPA/run. WKU’s Air Raid will get its yards against a mediocre Jacksonville State pass defense, but the Gamecocks are top-25 in turnovers forced and interception % and feel like a good bet to flip the field on a WKU offense that throws too many interceptions.”
We love the matchup for J-State, especially now that motivation has become a wash on both sides. One potential complication? Jacksonville State QB1 Tyler Huff injured his left knee (or ankle) against WKU and was removed from the game.
JSU HC Rich Rodriguez has not yet updated Huff’s status (as of Tuesday night). Veteran QB2 Logan Smothers – a transfer from Nebraska who started most of last season – would get the call if Huff can’t go. Smothers isn’t as good as Huff (1,079 rushing yards and 13 TD this year), but he’s a competent veteran backup who knows the offense.
Even with the Huff injury, we were showing line value on J-State. We like Jacksonville State to win this game and cover the number regardless of who is behind center.
Gene Clemons’ Take On The Sun Belt Conference Championship
Louisiana will face Marshall in the Sun Belt Conference Championship, and Marshall has to travel to Lafayette to face the Ragin Cajuns.
Marshall has played well this season, but Louisiana just finds a way to win regularly. They have the 15th ranked scoring offense and the 44th ranked scoring defense. Marshall, meanwhile, has the 69th ranked scoring defense. This is a matchup that could come down to which team makes the most explosive plays — and the least amount of mistakes. And Louisiana is ranked 9th in turnover margin; this game will not be too big for them.
Gene’s Bet: UL Lafayette -5
Thor Nystrom’s Top 25 College Football Rankings
Check out the full top 134 at our college football power rankings.
| Rank | Team | Proj Wins | SOS Rank |
| 1 | Texas | 11.5 | 10 |
| 2 | Oregon | 12.7 | 35 |
| 3 | Ohio St. | 10.0 | 21 |
| 4 | Georgia | 10.5 | 2 |
| 5 | Notre Dame | 11.0 | 53 |
| 6 | Alabama | 9.0 | 8 |
| 7 | Ole Miss | 9.0 | 26 |
| 8 | Tennessee | 10.0 | 49 |
| 9 | Penn St. | 11.3 | 24 |
| 10 | Indiana | 11.0 | 66 |
| 11 | South Carolina | 9.0 | 15 |
| 12 | Miami (FL) | 10.0 | 64 |
| 13 | SMU | 11.5 | 63 |
| 14 | Texas A&M | 8.0 | 19 |
| 15 | Clemson | 9.5 | 52 |
| 16 | Iowa | 8.0 | 38 |
| 17 | LSU | 8.0 | 9 |
| 18 | Florida | 7.0 | 4 |
| 19 | Louisville | 8.0 | 37 |
| 20 | Iowa St. | 10.5 | 31 |
| 21 | Kansas St. | 8.0 | 44 |
| 22 | Colorado | 9.0 | 43 |
| 23 | USC | 6.0 | 12 |
| 24 | Missouri | 9.0 | 42 |
| 25 | Boise St. | 11.7 | 77 |