A Patriots fireworks show? In this economy? and the best bets of NFL Week 12

Week 11 was an absolute beaut for our resident NFL betting expert, the Rhode Island Scumbag. Faith in Mike Tomlin and perfect 3-0 week led to a four-unit profit — and, importantly, take a slight lead in our season-long picks competition.

That effectively resets our season with seven weeks to go. The good news is we’re both profitable; our picks are up a combined 10 units. The bad news is neither one of us is killing it.

Can the Scumbag keep his momentum going? Can I change mine? Let’s take a look at our Week 12 locks. All Scumbag analysis is in blockquotes below. My non-Scumbag picks follow.

It feels great to see everything laid out in last week’s Scumbag picks come to fruition. The Pittsburgh Steelers showed Lamar Jackson their defense is for real. The New York Jets once again struggled against the run. The Dallas Cowboys were spectacularly bad in front of a national audience Monday night.

To my delight, Christian’s picks did the exact opposite, save for the Houston-Dallas matchup we both picked. My first instinct is to revel in Christian’s misfortune, but he’s had 10 weeks worth of opportunities to do that to yours truly, so I’ll count my blessings, take the high road (something he may not be used to within our degenerate circle) and move on to the current task at hand; keeping the positive momentum going.

Adding to the difficulty of capitalizing on my positive momentum is the minefield of the Sunday lines. We have a multitude of two score spreads, which leads me to hesitate on teams with which I’ve had success . I’m going to try and make some modest, low key wagers rather than getting overexcited/overconfident and forcing unnecessarily risky decisions.

Denver Broncos (-5.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (one unit)

The Broncos head to Vegas to take on a reeling Raiders team on a six game losing streak. The Broncos actually began that streak when they beat Vegas at home in Week 5, 34-18. There haven’t been too many changes to these teams since their last meeting, the exception being Bo Nix’s growing confidence running the Broncos’ offense.

Denver is still a strong defensive unit that takes care of business against bad teams. Vegas is still a bad team. Besides Brock Bowers, there isn’t much for Raiders fans to look forward to. The Broncos’ offense should put up points this week, and Gardiner Minschew [Ed. note: I’m not correcting this misspelling, as it’s rare to mess up both first and last names without, somehow, changing the pronunciation of either] hasn’t shown he’s going to be a problem for Denver. The Broncos should be able to cover the spread this week whether it’s -5 or -6.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins OVER 46 points (one unit)

Last time these two teams met, we took the under (37.5) and didn’t even have a sweat in a 15-10 game. This time around, both teams are sporting different quarterbacks.

Miami got Tua Tagovailoa back from his concussion in Week 8. The Patriots made the change to Drake Maye the week following that loss to the Dolphins. Miami’s offense has been much more explosive with Tua back under center, and has shown the ability to do so both in the air and on the ground. The Patriots offense hasn’t been quite as potent, but it’s certainly shown signs of competence with Maye leading the way.

Ultimately, I think this game has the potential to see some points put up by both teams, leading to the over in Miami. One unit works here.

San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) at Green Bay Packers (one unit)

San Francisco should be playing with a sense of urgency after losing to division rival Seattle last week. Green Bay barely escaped Chicago with a win themselves and gets to return to the comfy confines of Lambeau Field in November.

Last time these two teams met was last January, where San Francisco advanced to the NFC title game by a field goal. George Kittle makes his return this week after a one game absence, which should help elevate the 49ers’ passing attack. With Christian McCaffrey getting back up to speed, Green Bay may struggle to keep the run game in check again, continuing their struggles from last week.

This one could devolve into a shootout, in which case I want the team with the best offensive weapon at their disposal (McCaffrey). Ultimately, I like San Francisco’s chances to get right here and will lay a unit on them to cover.

Last week: 3-0, +4 units
Season to date: 20-15-1 (.569), +5 units

My non-Scumbag picks: New England Patriots +7.5 at the Miami Dolphins, Denver Broncos -5.5 at the Las Vegas Raiders and Carolina Panthers +11 vs. the Kansas City Chiefs (one unit each)

In three plays, I am backing Drake Maye, Bo Nix and Bryce Young, two of whom are on the road against division rivals. It’s possible that losing to the Scumbag has broken me.

The Panthers pick is fairly simple. They’re at home, coming off a bye and playing against a team prone to allowing opponents to stick around. Last year, that post-bye bounce led to Carolina’s only victory over a team with a winning record (and half its total wins) when Young stunk slightly less than C.J. Stroud in a 15-13 win over the Houston Texans.

The Raiders have played three teams with top 10 defenses and scored 41 combined points in three losses. That includes a 34-18 defeat in Denver to a worse version of Nix than the developing quarterback we’ve seen lately. I do not like laying points on the road in a divisional game, but these are two teams trending in very different directions.

New England? That’s a vibes bet alone. The first meeting between these teams taught us nothing, since it was a Tyler Huntley-Jacoby Brissett showdown. Over the last four weeks, Drake Maye has injected new life into the Patriots’ offense. Tua Tagovailoa has done the same in Florida.

New England’s defense has been a little better than Miami’s recently. Christian Gonzalez is up to the task of slowing Tyreek Hill. The Pats other cornerbacks are not, so this may all implode on me. But this feels like a statement game from Maye OR a close game ultimately decided by a costly turnover while he’s trying to do too much in a two-minute drill. Either way produces my desired result.

Last week: 1-3, -2 units
Season to date: 17-14 (.548), +5 units