NFL Week 11 Picks — Longshots, Underrated Chargers, Anthony Richardson, and More
Betting Life’s Matthew Freedman, Matt LaMarca, and Geoff Ulrich share their favorite Week 11 longshots, opine on the Chargers, dole out some dynasty league advice… and more!
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Week 11 Longshot Bets
- I’m giving you $20 to bet on the Jags, Raiders, or Cowboys. Which underdog do you put it on?
Matthew Freedman: Cowboys +7.5 vs. Texans
I want to be clear: I have not logged this in our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker, and I’m not likely to have a position on this game. That said … backup QB Cooper Rush is 5-2 ATS for his career, and we have this projected at +6.75 in our Fantasy Life Game Models. With a projection on the other side of the key number of +7, there’s theoretically value in this line—but I doubt I’ll want to bet on it in reality. The Cowboys are 2-7 ATS this year. As a bettor and a Cowboys fan, I just can’t invest in this team anymore than I already have.
LaMarca: Raiders +7.5 at Dolphins
The Dolphins picked up a win on Monday Night Football vs. the Rams, but they’re in an awful spot this week. They have one fewer day of rest than usual, while the Raiders are coming off a bye week. The Buccaneers were in the same spot as the Dolphins last week, and while the 49ers are obviously way better than the Raiders, they were massively outplayed. Their typically explosive offense managed a season-low 215 yards, while their defense surrendered 413 yards. The Raiders also recently overhauled their offensive coaching staff, so maybe that gives them a shot in the arm. I’m not sure if I’ll actually bet the Raiders this week, but I like their situation much more than the Jaguars and Cowboys.
Ulrich: Cowboys +7.5 vs Texans
I’m not sure I have the gumption to bet the Cowboys straight up as underdogs but I did play them at +7.5 and even logged it as an official bet in our NFL Bet Tracker, where you can find all of my free NFL bets.
C.J. Stroud has been sacked an average of 4.7 times over the last three games and the Cowboys have Micah Parsons back in the lineup, which helped them rack up 5.0 sacks last week (although you wouldn’t know it by the final score). After last week, Stroud is also now just 5-10 ATS as a favorite in his career, a clear trend as he’s generally outperformed as an underdog.
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Are the Chargers Good?
- The Chargers are 6-3 and live in the shadow of the Chiefs. Are they good? Any actionable wagers we should make?
Matthew Freedman: Chargers to Win AFC (+2000, DraftKings)
I already have bets on the Chargers to win the Super Bowl (+4500) and to win the AFC West (+490). I don’t need to open any more positions on this team in the futures markets … but I do think there’s value in Chargers to win their conference at 20-1. I just ran 10,000 rest-of-season simulations using my power ratings, home-field values, and QB ATS values, and the result is +1823 for the Chargers to make the Super Bowl as the AFC representatives.
Geoff Ulrich: Chargers to miss the playoffs (+450; DraftKings)
There can be a lot of divergence in markets like “make/miss the playoffs” especially mid-season with so much going on. Using our NFL Futures Tool we can see the Chargers are as short as +330 to miss the playoffs at some books, but as big as +450 at DraftKings. I would say there is theoretical value in taking them to miss out at that price as they face the Bengals, Ravens, Falcons (road), and Chiefs (road) over their next four games.
Just from a general vibes standpoint, they also have just one win over a team with a winning record — so I think it’s OK to be a little skeptical of just how much upside they have.
Matt LaMarca: I’ve been down on the Chargers for most of the year, but I’m starting to come around on them. It has nothing to do with their wins—they continue to feast on some of the worst teams in football—but rather their change in offensive philosophy. They’re letting Justin Herbert throw the ball a bit more, and he has responded with some of the most efficient football of his career. Add in an elite defense, and I think this is a clear playoff team. That said, my favorite bet for them in the market currently is 10.5 wins (-135; DraftKings). Their schedule is about to get a lot tougher, including a four-game stretch vs. the Bengals, Ravens, Falcons, and Chiefs. We’re about to find out a lot about this squad.
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Dynasty Fantasy Football Advice
- In a dynasty league, would you rather have Anthony Richardson or Bryce Young?
Freedman: Anthony Richardson > Bryce Young
Neither player seems especially likely to be a serious dynasty contributor. And in fact, given that Young is actually playing well right now and has won his past two games, he looks likelier than Richardson to be an NFL starter moving forward. But I’d rather have Richardson, who still has massive Josh Allen-esque upside if he hits because of his rushing ability and arm strength. If Young hits, he’s unlikely to be anything more than a mid-range QB2 … and that’s not much of a hit.
LaMarca: Definitely Anthony Richardson.
Quarterbacks who are capable of providing fantasy points with their legs are like a cheat code in fantasy football. We’ve seen plenty of guys who aren’t great with their arm turn in strong fantasy seasons with their legs. It’s important to remember that Richardson is still very raw. He spent just one year as a starting QB in college, and he’s made just 10 career starts at the NFL level. It hasn’t looked pretty, but his numbers during that stretch aren’t all that dissimilar to a guy like Josh Allen. In fact, he’s posted a better adjusted yards per attempt than Allen through his first 10 career games. I’m not saying that Richardson will become Allen, or even a starting fantasy QB. But he has that type of ceiling, and I’m willing to take a shot on him if he’s cheap.
Ulrich: Anthony Richardson
A timely question given that the Colts just announced that Richardson will be their starter rest of the season. There will undoubtedly be more bumpy patches ahead, but for fantasy, we don’t care about how pretty things look, we care about results.
Richardson has made seven starts where he’s played the entire game. Three of those starts have resulted in games where he’s produced 20.0+ fantasy points and he’s gone for 25.0+ fantasy points twice. In comparison, Bryce Young has played in 21 full games as the starter and has only exceeded 20.0+ fantasy points once (and never had a game with 25.0+ points).
Richardson is the far better asset, and it’s not even close.
You can find more of our NFL free bets in our bet tracker as well. And upset picks can be found in our NFL betting model for Week 11.
Rapid Fire Questions – 5 word answers
Answer the following questions in exactly five words:
- Falcons or Texans: Which team will go deeper?
Freedman: Texans are contenders. Falcons, pretenders.
LaMarca: Falcons. AFC is a gauntlet.
Ulrich: The Falcons. You like that?
- What will Shane Waldron’s firing do for the Bears in fantasy?
Freedman: Nothing. Playcaller Thomas Brown … ugh.
LaMarca: Puts the spotlight on Caleb.
Ulrich: Get DJ Moore more targets.
- What’s your favorite Week 11 bet of any kind?
Freedman: Packers -6. Bears are bad.
LaMarca: Browns ML. Saints are awful.
Ulrich: Bengals ML. Chargers are meh.
- The 49ers have a win total of 9.5. How do we feel about that?
Freedman: Projection: 9.6. I feel nothing.
LaMarca: Prefer +135 to win division.
Ulrich: Probably hits, but I’ll pass.
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