NFL spread picks Week 3: Banking on the Bills, Ravens and Bengals

It turns out small sample sizes can be detrimental when picking against the spread.

Our panel had a rough week with only Christian D’Andrea making it to the .500 mark. A colossal Cowboys loss, the Patriots upsetting the Seahawks and the Jaguars getting cooked at home by Cleveland ruined our three unanimous staff picks last week.

We’ll try to bounce back in Week 3.

Name	Last Week	YTD
Christian D’Andrea	8-8	17-14-1
Blake Schuster	7-9	16-15-1
Charles Curtis	6-10	14-17-1
Cory Woodroof	5-11	13-18-1
Prince Grimes	4-12	10-21-1
Robert Zeglinski	4-12	10-21-1

All odds via BetMGM

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots (Thursday Night)

Opening Line: Jets -7.5

Blake Schuster: Jets -6.5

I’d take the Patriots if this game were in New England, but the amount of energy we’ll see in New Jersey after the Jets opened with back-to-back road games should offset the Thursday Night of it all.

Prince Grimes: Patriots +6.5

The Patriots are a little more competitive than I expected. If there was ever a game for that to continue, it’d be the divisional clash with the Jets in a short week.

Charles Curtis: Patriots +6.5

A divisional game in a short week on a Thursday night with two teams that aren’t the best? I’ll take the points, thank you.

Cory Woodroof: Jets -6.5

We’re sure this will be some sloppy Thursday Night Football, but the Jets should be able to score at the last minute to get the win.

Robert Zeglinski: Jets -6.5

The Patriots play an anemic brand of offensive football as they can’t really block. Even if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t play well, the New York defense should feast.

Christian D’Andrea: Jets -6.5

The Patriots’ offensive line was already garbage and it’s missing TWO starters? New England covers if it avoids a turnover, but that’s a ticking clock.

Cleveland Browns vs. New York Giants

Opening Line: Browns -6.5

Blake Schuster: Browns -6.5

I think Cleveland’s defense will make life hell for Daniel Jones and he already does not play well under standard amounts of pressure.

Prince Grimes: Giants +6.5

The Giants played well enough in Washington to enter this game with confidence and keep it close against another bad quarterback.

Charles Curtis: Browns -6.5

Deshaun Watson may be bad but he’s not Daniel Jones bad. Plus, the Browns D continues to be good.

Cory Woodroof: Browns -6.5

The Browns defense is just not the kind of buzzsaw the Giants want to face right now as it tries to score more points.

Robert Zeglinski: Browns -6.5

Let’s be real. Myles Garrett has had the game he gets to harass Daniel Jones circled on his calendar since the NFL schedule was revealed in May.

Christian D’Andrea: Browns -6.5

The Giants got me out here backing the quarterback who once had more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL later described as “predatory behavior” levied against him for a full touchdown’s worth of points. Congratulations, Brian Daboll. You have broken me.

Tennessee Titans vs. Green Bay Packers

Opening Line: Packers -3.5

Blake Schuster: Packers +2.5

Malik Willis took the high road, but come on, we all know this is a revenge game.

Prince Grimes: Packers +2.5

Jordan Love practiced Wednesday. If he’s playing, this is a no brainer.

Charles Curtis: Packers +2.5

Will Levis has a big arm but not great decision-making. So I’ll back the smarter team.

Cory Woodroof: Titans -2.5

The Titans aren’t as bad as their record shows. Will Levis just has to take care of the ball to get the first win of the season.

Robert Zeglinski: Packers +2.5

What happens first in this game? Brian Callahan admonishing Will Levis for another silly turnover, or Malik Willis reaching 10 total pass attempts?

Christian D’Andrea: Packers +2.5

MALIK WILLIS REVENGE GAME (Will Levis > 1.5 turnovers)

Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears

Opening Line: Colts -2

Blake Schuster: Colts -1

Indianapolis has the No. 7 defensive line per PFF, which should be problematic for a Chicago offense that just gave up seven sacks against the 10th-ranked Texans defensive line.

Prince Grimes: Bears +1

Hard to feel good about the Colts after a bad loss last week.

Charles Curtis: Colts -1

Can’t trust Caleb Williams just yet.

Cory Woodroof: Colts -1

The Colts cannot be an 0-3 team, can they? If they are, all the progress from Year One will look like fool’s gold, at least for now. Willing to bet they can right the ship here.

Robert Zeglinski: Bears +1

Oh goodness. I guess I have more confidence in Caleb Williams FINALLY cutting up the Colts’ porous defense over Anthony Richardson facing down the Bears’ elite shutdown unit. I don’t feel great about this.

Christian D’Andrea: Colts -1

Indianapolis needs a get right game. It’s now or… well, until the Jacksonville Jaguars come to town.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Houston Texans

Opening Line: Texans -4.5

Blake Schuster: Texans -2.5

The Vikings can’t take down contenders in back-to-back weeks, right? Right?

Prince Grimes: Texans -2.5

Though this is harder to feel good about with Joe Mixon potentially out.

Charles Curtis: Texans -2.5

The Vikings secondary is going to have a long day.

Cory Woodroof: Texans -2.5

The Vikings have been a surprise, but the Texans can get it done and maintain the perfect record.

Robert Zeglinski: Vikings +2.5

Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores might be the best play-calling duo in the league. Meanwhile, Houston’s Bobby Slowik just got put in a blender by Matt Eberflus. Minnesota’s gonna make this super interesting.

Christian D’Andrea: Vikings +2.5

Mannnn I’d like this a lot more if it were a full field goal. But Minnesota just came through at home and Brian Flores has plans for C.J. Stroud. Maybe not enough to fully stop him, but slow him down enough to keep things close.

New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Opening Line: Eagles -3

Blake Schuster: Eagles +2.5

The Saints have to come back down to Earth eventually. The Eagles should be able to frustrate the offense enough that we finally get to see New Orleans face adversity in a game.

Prince Grimes: Saints -2.5

Based on what we’ve seen so far, the Eagles are going to have a long day trying to slow NO’s offense.

Charles Curtis: Saints -2.5

The Eagles pass rush is going to have a long day.

Cory Woodroof: Eagles +2.5

The Saints look terrifying, but the Eagles will be their biggest litmus test yet. Philly will be highly motivated after a very difficult loss to the Falcons.

Robert Zeglinski: Saints -2.5

Dennis Allen’s defense is about to grind Jalen Hurts into a fine paste. Even worse, are we sure Vic Fangio understands how electric Alvin Kamara is with the ball in his hands? Because his fourth-quarter playcalling on Monday night suggests otherwise.

Christian D’Andrea: Eagles +2.5

Philly still has the more talented roster and the other shoe’s gotta drop at some point for New Orleans. Right? RIGHT???

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Opening Line: Steelers -3

Blake Schuster: Steelers -1.5

Take the under in this game. The final score might be 13-10 as Mike Tomlin tries to shut down Jim Harbaugh’s run-heavy offense.

Prince Grimes: Chargers +1.5

In a game where the rushing attacks will dominate, the first team to get a big throw may very well end up on top and the Chargers have Justin Herbert.

Charles Curtis: Chargers +1.5

In Jim we trust. His defense is playing well and grinding games out on the ground is working.

Cory Woodroof: Steelers -1.5

That Steelers defense is perfectly designed to slow down what Jim Harbaugh wants to do offensively, and Justin Fields can do just enough right now at home to seal a close victory.

Robert Zeglinski: Chargers +1.5

The Chargers have the league’s second-best rushing offense. The Steelers like to keep it close enough to hope their defense makes a game-breaking play. As long as L.A. keeps successfully stuffing the ball into J.K. Dobbins’ chest, Pittsburgh won’t get the opportunity to tilt this game.

Christian D’Andrea: Chargers +1.5

Pittsburgh throws the ball less than any team in the league but the Saints. Los Angeles has the NFL’s best run defense through two games by a mile. Unless Justin Fields is ready for a big leap, LA can take this one straight up.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Denver Broncos

Opening Line: Buccaneers -3.5

Blake Schuster: Buccaneers -7

If Tampa is the true contender it looks like through the first two weeks of the season, it won’t play with it’s food at home.

Prince Grimes: Buccaneers -7

Especially at home, these are the type of games Tampa needs to take care of.

Charles Curtis: Buccaneers -7

This team is legitimately good on both sides of the ball. The Broncos are … not.

Cory Woodroof: Buccaneers -7

Bo Nix is still figuring out the ropes, so asking him to go into Tampa and win is a tall task.

Robert Zeglinski: Buccaneers -7

Until Bo Nix starts challenging defenses downfield, I am fading this team in every possible way every single week. The book is out on him, and he’s written most of it. We’re also UNDERRATING how good Tampa Bay is.

Christian D’Andrea: Broncos +7

Denver has turned the ball over five times and still held tight in both its losses. Tampa could be trending toward a letdown game after an emotional underdog win in Detroit.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Carolina Panthers

Opening Line: Raiders -4

Blake Schuster: Panthers +5.5

I’m expecting a letdown game after a massive upset at Baltimore last week. Plus, Andy Dalton is 4-0 in his career against the Raiders.

Prince Grimes: Raiders -5.5

Last I checked, Andy Dalton only plays one position. And he’s barely good at that.

Charles Curtis: Raiders -5.5

Andy Dalton makes the offense only slightly better. Can he play defense, though? Because the Raiders are going to run all over that D.

Cory Woodroof: Raiders -5.5

This feels like the exact type of situation where a Panthers team in freefall rallies behind Andy Dalton to squeak out a win… if the game is at home. Going on the road to face a physical Raiders team right after benching Bryce Young is a tough ask.

Robert Zeglinski: Raiders -5.5

It’s a bad time to be Andy Dalton in Charlotte. The Red Rifle was probably hoping he could cash a big check by sitting on the bench every Sunday this year. Now? Dalton has to hope Maxx Crosby doesn’t throw all his weight onto him when he buries him in the turf a few times. I feel for him.

Christian D’Andrea: Raiders -5.5

Andy Dalton is better than Bryce Young. He’s also less mobile, so Maxx Crosby may turn him into an orange stain on the Allegiant Stadium turf.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Miami Dolphins

Opening Line: Dolphins -2

Blake Schuster: Seahawks -4.5

No touching Miami until we see what this offense looks like with Skylar Thompson.

Prince Grimes: Seahawks -4.5

Fading Miami until further notice.

Charles Curtis: Dolphins +4.5

It’s just a hair too big of a spread for a well-coached team, even without Tua Tagovailoa.

Cory Woodroof: Seahawks -4.5

The Dolphins are in a bad spot right now, and Mike Macdonald’s defense is no joke.

Robert Zeglinski: Seahawks -4.5

The Seahawks’ defense is quietly special (thanks, Mike Macdonald). And the Dolphins are in crisis. I need to take more layups.

Christian D’Andrea: Dolphins +4.5

Mike McDaniel likes Skylar Thompson enough to make him QB2 behind an injury prone quarterback over more proven veterans (like Mike White). There’s gotta be something to that, right?

Dallas Cowboys vs. Baltimore Ravens

Opening Line: Cowboys -1

Blake Schuster: Ravens +1

It’s not sound betting logic, but I just can’t see the Ravens starting 0-3.

Prince Grimes: Ravens -1

Lamar Jackson puts the Ravens on his back and makes sure they don’t fall to 0-3.

Charles Curtis: Ravens -1

The Cowboys stink and this is a great get-right game for Baltimore.

Cory Woodroof: Ravens -1

The Ravens are not going to go 0-3. There is no way. Right?

Robert Zeglinski: Cowboys +1

Are either of these teams good? Will either of them be .500 by November? I dunno man. Taking the home points.

Christian D’Andrea: Cowboys +1

I don’t trust either team, but the home side is getting points so here we are.

Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers

Opening Line: 49ers -3

Blake Schuster: Rams +7.5

Both teams are hurting, sure. That’s still a lot of points to give a home team in a division rivalry game.

Prince Grimes: Rams +7.5

If the Niners were fully healthy, I’d lean that direction. But the Rams aren’t the only team dealing with injuries right now.

Charles Curtis: 49ers -7.5

The Rams are too banged up to do enough here.

Cory Woodroof: 49ers -7.5

Kyle Shanahan’s team should be motivated to brush off a tough loss to the Vikings against an ailing Rams team.

Robert Zeglinski: Rams +7.5

No matter the injury status of their roster, the Rams always play the 49ers tough. Sean McVay is not staring his first-ever 0-3 start in the face without a fight.

Christian D’Andrea: Rams +7.5

That’s a lot of points to lay on the road. Even if roughly 60 percent of LA’s starting offense is hurt.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Detroit Lions

Opening Line: Lions -4

Blake Schuster: Cardinals +3

Haven’t faded Arizona’s offense yet this season and I don’t plan to now.

Prince Grimes: Cardinals +3

The Lions should win but AZ is playing a little too well for me to lay more than a field goal against the home team.

Charles Curtis: Lions -3

I honestly almost took the points but this feels like the kind of game a contender should win by more than three.

Cory Woodroof: Cardinals +3

I’ll take the upset here, as Kyler Murray is playing out of his mind right now. Dare we say the Lions aren’t quite as sharp as last season?

Robert Zeglinski: Lions -3

A needed get-right game for a Detroit Super Bowl contender against a Cardinals team that is getting a little too much shine.

Christian D’Andrea: Lions -3

Beating up the Rams’ decrepit offensive line is one thing. Do it against Detroit’s fleet of road-graders and I’ll believe in your playoff chances.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday Night)

Opening Line: Chiefs -3.5

Blake Schuster: Chiefs -3.5

Primetime Kirk Cousins in back-to-back weeks? In this economy!?

Prince Grimes: Chiefs -3.5

Atlanta should be thanking the stars and heavens Saquon Barkley dropped that pass.

Charles Curtis: Chiefs -3.5

KC’s pass rush will give Kirk Cousins nightmares. He will NOT like that.

Cory Woodroof: Falcons +3.5

Logic and reason say the Chiefs weather the injury storm and win this, but the Falcons are coming off a very emotional road victory that could spark some real momentum as Kirk Cousins continues to settle in, now at home with a dome. Kansas City will still break your heart in February.

Robert Zeglinski: Falcons +3.5

Hollywood Brown is out for the season. Xavier Worthy disappears after just getting brushed by defenders. Isiah Pacheco is out for the foreseeable future. And the Chiefs are barely skating by as Patrick Mahomes adjusts to his adverse circumstances. So, can we fast-forward to their three-peat in February already? I’m exhausted, man.

Christian D’Andrea: Falcons +3.5

This is beginning to feel like one of those seasons where nothing comes easily for the Chiefs (and they make it to the Super Bowl anyway).

Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (Monday Night)

Opening Line: Bills -5

Blake Schuster: Bills -5.5

Buffalo’s had 11 days to prepare for a hapless Jacksonville team to come to town.

Prince Grimes: Bills -5.5

The Jags just aren’t good.

Charles Curtis: Bills -5.5

I don’t like what I’ve seen out of the Jags AT ALL. The Bills are playing solid team ball all around.

Cory Woodroof: Bills -5.5

Don’t blame the Jaguars’ rocksteady defense for this pick. Blame whatever is happening on offense.

Robert Zeglinski: Bills -5.5

Trevor Lawrence is seeing ghosts and the Bills are kicking everyone’s [expletive] without relying on Josh Allen. Western New York is throwing a massive party on Monday night.

Christian D’Andrea: Bills -5.5

A warm night in Orchard Park means depravity in the stands and a fine cinnamon whisky mist descending on the field. And no one plays better through Fireball-stung nostrils than Buffalo.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Washington Commanders (Monday Night)

Opening Line: Bengals -7

Blake Schuster: Bengals -7.5

Yeah, this is about the time Cincy starts to wake up and get it together.

Prince Grimes: Bengals -7.5

I really, really want to take Washington with this many points, but if they couldn’t crack the goal line against the Giants, it’s hard to back them in Cincy.

Charles Curtis: Bengals -7.5

I do think Jayden Daniels has looked pretty good. But the Bengals were one call away from a win over the Chiefs and I don’t trust Washington’s defense.

Cory Woodroof: Bengals -7.5

Joe Burrow and Company can finally get a win this season against a Commanders team that is a ways away from an upset like this.

Robert Zeglinski: Bengals -7.5

The Bengals are ravenous after another classic slow September start. Washington may as well be literally entering a tiger den.

Christian D’Andrea: Bengals -7.5

Jayden Daniels has been kinda nice but he hasn’t had to face any coordinator on Lou Anarumo’s level yet.