NFL Week 1 overreactions: Caleb Williams won't be the Offensive Rookie of the Year

09.09.2024 18:42

Thank goodness the Chicago Bears were able to dig their way out of 17-0 hole to beat the Tennessee Titans Sunday. Because had they lost, it’d be a code red on Caleb Williams Monday morning.

Of course, any panic about the No. 1 overall pick after just one start would have been ridiculous. But when have football fans ever acted rationally?

There’s no way around it. Williams was bad in his debut. He completed fewer than 50% of his passes and finished with just 93 passing yards on 3.2 yards per attempt. It was rough. But I won’t go so far as to say he won’t eventually be good.

What I will say is Williams’ first game is a reality check about his Offensive Rookie of the Year chances. Playing quarterback is hard and maybe he wasn’t as plug-and-play ready as we assumed. Though he remains the favorite at +145 odds at BetMGM, the gap doesn’t feel nearly as large as it did before game one.

Related: 8 grossest QBs of Week 1

In fact, if I’m putting my money on anybody to win right now, it’s Kansas City Chiefs receiver Xavier Worthy at +1200. He was sensational in his debut, scoring touchdowns as a runner and receiver. And I believe his chemistry with Patrick Mahomes will only increase.

After him, I’d even sprinkle something on Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels at +500 before Williams.

That’s not to say Williams won’t eventually pick it up. But he’s already behind the eight ball, and upcoming games at the Texans and Colts and at home against the Rams aren’t going to make it easy to catch up.

Now for more of my Week 1 overreactions.

Minnesota Vikings: Will win more games than the Bears

Sticking with the NFC North, Caleb Williams’ slow start means the gap between the Lions and Packers at the top of the division and the Bears is larger than I thought. It also means the gap between the Bears and Vikings might be smaller. Especially if the Vikings are anything close to as good as they looked against the Giants.

It’s obviously an overreaction to read too much into anything anyone does against the Giants. But that’s the point of this whole exercise. And Sam Darnold looked like a real starter in that game. If he continues to play anything close to that level, the Vikings can push the teams at the top of this division and relegate the Bears to a last-place team.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Can win the AFC North

Pittsburgh opened the season with the worst odds to win the North, but it only took one week to prove they can absolutely win it. I’d still say the Ravens are the best team in the division, but considering how bad the Bengals and Browns looked, that’s the only team I feel confident saying is better than Pittsburgh. Even then, I’m not sure how much better Baltimore is.

With the Steelers as the only team to start 1-0, an incredible defense and upcoming games they may be favored to win in Weeks 2 through 4, Pittsburgh has a chance to build a cushion that will make this a race to the very end. And as we all know, you can never count out a Mike Tomlin-coached team.

Atlanta Falcons: Will miss the playoffs

I came into this season believing just one team from the NFC South would make the playoffs, and if I had to pick which team that would be after Week 1, I’d say the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Though the Saints were also impressive in their win over the Panthers.

The Bucs had a much easier matchup against Washington than Atlanta did against Pittsburgh, but it was very concerning how out of sync Atlanta’s offense appeared. Kirk Cousins didn’t look completely comfortable in his return from an Achilles injury, and it’s hard to expect that to improve for a 36-year-old who was never a Hall of Fame-level player to begin with.