NFL bettors like Ravens to upset Chiefs in Thursday's opener. Here's why they might be right.

Thursday night’s NFL kickoff between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs will be one of the marquee games of the entire 2024 season.

The game is a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship and features the two teams favored to return to that game this season. It’s a big deal.

The Chiefs are three-point favorites at home, but bettors aren’t convinced the defending champs are a lock to win. Though 54% of bets on the spread at BetMGM had the Chiefs covering, 57% of the money was on Ravens +3 as of Wednesday morning. Furthermore, 58% of the moneyline handle and 61% of bets took the Ravens.

Public bettors and sharps seem to agree this is a good spot for the new-look Ravens led by Derrick Henry to get a little payback.

They might be on to something. Since 2021, defending Super Bowl champions are 0-3 ATS in this game and 1-2 overall. That includes Kansas City’s loss to the Detroit Lions in last year’s opener.

Two losses in three years hardly counts as a significant trend that should support any kind of bet. But it’s a stark departure from the seven years prior when the champs lost just once and failed to cover twice. And it carries a little more weight when it includes the Chiefs themselves.

As for the total, 60% of bets have it going over 40 points, while 54% of the money is on the under.