Pac-12 bowl projections: Utah and Oregon reach the CFP, Washington heads to Las Vegas and Colorado makes the Sun
In one regard, the Pac-12 hasn’t splintered: All 12 schools are tied to the same bowls that have been affiliated with the conference for years. (Exceptions are made for teams that qualify for the College Football Playoff.) The Hotline will provide weekly projections for the teams throughout the regular season. Our latest CFP picks can be found here.
College Football Playoff
Team: Utah (Big 12 champion)
Comment: The toughest stretch of Utah’s conference schedule comes sooner than later: Back-to-back dates with Oklahoma State (road) and Arizona (home) at the end of September. Win both, and the Utes are a lock for the Big 12 championship game. The winner receives an automatic bid to the CFP.
College Football Playoff
Team: Oregon (Big Ten at-large)
Comment: The Hotline still believes in the Ducks, although a close game this week against Boise State, which struggled to slow Georgia Southern (45 points and 461 yards), might cause us to reconsider.
Alamo Bowl
Team: USC
Comment: Instead of relying on conference record to set the pecking order, the Pac-12’s bowl partners will use overall record. The Trojans should make the Alamo with nine wins and could get there with eight. Not for nothing: They would be first-timers in San Antonio.
Holiday Bowl
Team: Arizona
Comment: Bowls usually loath repeat participants, so the Alamo likely would pass on Arizona — assuming it has the choice. If the Wildcats have two more victories than any other available team, the bowl would be forced (by selection protocol) to invite them.
Las Vegas Bowl
Team: Washington
Comment: Fortunately for the Las Vegas Bowl, which alternates between the Big Ten and the SEC as the Pac-12’s opponent, this is an SEC year. Bowl officials need not worry about matching new and old Big Ten teams that played each other during the regular season.
Sun Bowl
Team: Colorado
Comment: Few teams in the country are as coveted as Colorado, which hits the postseason sweet spot as a bowl participant that sells tickets locally and generates TV ratings nationally. If the Buffaloes get to six wins, they will be in high demand.
LA Bowl
Team: Cal
Comment: The LA Bowl won’t want Washington State and the Independence Bowl won’t want Cal for the same reason: Repeat participants are to be avoided, especially repeat participants who performed poorly. (The Cougars were thrashed in Los Angeles by Fresno State last year while the Bears lost decisively in Shreveport to Texas Tech.) So if need be, the bowls could trade selections.
Independence Bowl
Team: Washington State
Comment: The Cougars have enough second-tier Mountain West schools coming through Pullman to make the bowl math work so long as they win one or two games on the road. If they handle Texas Tech this week, the path to the postseason widens considerably.
ESPN bowl
Team: None
Comment: With eight bowl-eligible teams and two jumping into the playoff, the math doesn’t work for filling a spot in one of the ESPN-operated games.
Non-qualifier
Team: Arizona State
Comment: Good as they looked against Wyoming, the Sun Devils have a challenging road to bowl eligibility: Unlike Arizona and Utah, they drew all the best teams in the Big 12. Conference schedule rotations matter more than ever.
Non-qualifier
Team: Oregon State
Comment: Admittedly, we could regret this forecast by late November. OSU’s season likely will play out on the margins, with a handful of plays determining the trajectory. If the majority of those plays break right, the Beavers will be bowling.
Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford
Comment: Too many difficult games combined with too little talent makes for a fifth consecutive bowl-less season (excluding 2020) for a program that went to 10 in a row from 2009-18.
Non-qualifier
Team: UCLA
Comment: Even if the Bruins had run Hawaii off the field, we would not forecast a bowl berth for DeShaun Foster and Co. — their schedule is simply too difficult. But given the reality in Honolulu, the Bruins will be fortunate to win five.
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