McDonald: Aiyuk needed the 49ers more than they needed him
The 49ers’ 2024 crisis period has ended, or will end if and when Trent Williams is aboard for their Week 1 Monday night game against the New York Jets.
Based on the level of outrage over Brandon Aiyuk’s protracted “hold-in” you’d think it was some sort of premeditated sabotage against the 49ers. In reality, although it was weird, Aiyuk wasn’t out as long as Nick Bosa was a year ago under similar circumstances.
But in the end, the reality was the 49ers needed Bosa more than Bosa needed them. And Aiyuk needed the 49ers more than the 49ers needed Aiyuk. Bosa didn’t agree to terms until Sept. 6, four days before their road opener against Pittsburgh.
We’ll wait and see if Aiyuk gets off to a slow start as Bosa did.
Bosa, however, was coming from more of a position of strength. There are a lot fewer Nick Bosas on the football landscape than there are Brandon Aiyuks. And while Aiyuk eventually got paid with a reported four-year, $120 million extension, he had to realize at some point the 49ers were ready to move on without him if for no other reason than they could.
The 49ers are better with Aiyuk, no question. But the hard truth is the 49ers had to swallow hard to pay Aiyuk as they did because he’s not as valuable to them in a contractual sense as he would be to another team.
While Aiyuk was seriously considering playing elsewhere, he gets to stay in his comfort zone and make a lot more money while facing a lot less pressure.
Anywhere else, Aiyuk would be working with a less stable situation — whether it be Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Washington or New England.
Opposing defenses would be zeroing in on Aiyuk in a way that can’t happen with the 49ers because coach Kyle Shanahan has more options at his disposal.
If Aiyuk had left, a good portion of the fan base and media would have thrown up their hands in frustration at the mismanagement of general manager John Lynch, negotiator Paraag Marathe and Shanahan.
Yet the very reason the 49ers could take a hard line is that Aiyuk, as good as is, is down the pecking order of importance even if the inflated wide receiver market has driven up his price tag.
Aiyuk caught 79 passes for 1,342 yards, averaged 17.9 yards per catch and scored seven touchdowns in 2023. The 49ers had no single replacement to equal those numbers but had a coach in Shanahan who could have made the necessary adjustments to keep them one of the NFL’s top offenses.
There’s only one coach in Shanahan’s league in terms of play design and execution, and it’s worth remembering how the Chiefs’ Andy Reid recovered from the supposedly disastrous decision to trade an instant-strike receiver when Tyreek HIll wanted more than Kansas City would pay.
Hill went to Miami and got paid. The Chiefs won anyway. With Hill, the Chiefs won a Super Bowl and lost one. Without him, they won two in a row.
And while Brock Purdy is no Patrick Mahomes, neither is Aiyuk the equal of Hill.
Among the adjustments Shanahan was pondering:
— Increasing the use of Deebo Samuel, who in his new uniform No. 1 has been a camp standout since Day 1.
— Using Christian McCaffrey more as a receiver. McCaffrey caught 67 passes for 564 yards last season and rushed for 1,459 on 272 carries. Throw it to him 90 times and he’ll approach 1,000 yards. Shanahan has said he would like to use McCaffrey a little less between the tackles. Cut his carries to the 200-to-210 range and increase the use of Jordan Mason inside.
McCaffrey, who had 2,023 yards from scrimmage last year, could still be in that neighborhood with a 1,000-1,000 season.
— Throwing more passes to Jauan Jennings, whose numbers (79 receptions, 963 yards, seven touchdowns in three seasons) aren’t a true measure of his value as evidenced by a $10.5 million guarantee on a contract extension in his restricted free agent year.
— Get something from first-round draft pick Ricky Pearsall Jr. approximating Aiyuk’s rookie year in 2020. That’s 60 receptions, 748 yards and five touchdowns. Pearsall’s apparently recurring shoulder injury makes this a problem, but there’s also fourth-round pick Jacob Cowing.
Aiyuk is very good, but he’s not Ja’Marr Chase of the Bengals, who will cash in next year, or CeeDee Lamb, who reset the market Tuesday at an average of $38 million per year.
If you were to rank the players the 49ers could least afford to lose going into the season, six names come to mind before Aiyuk:
Purdy
Without Purdy being at least as good as he was last season — and he probably needs to be better — the 49ers have no shot at a championship. It all flows from Purdy.
McCaffrey
Let’s not overthink this. He has played 33 games with the 49ers including the postseason and has scored 39 touchdowns.
Williams
He’s headed to the Hall of Fame, probably on the first ballot, five years after he retires. He has shown no signs of slippage at age 36. If he isn’t signed and in the lineup Week 1, it’s a much bigger deal than losing Aiyuk would have been. It’s easy to see Williams’ side of this, especially after the 49ers made things right with McCaffrey after performing at an elite level.
Bosa
With a full offseason and training camp, Bosa will be expected to contend for the NFL Defensive Player of the Year award he won after the 2022 season.
Fred Warner
Maybe a tad shy of a Patrick Willis level of performance, but not by much. In terms of defensive leadership, he’s the 49ers’ Ronnie Lott.
George Kittle
The only thing he loves more than the camera is his family, playing football, studying football and training to play football. He is a leader in every respect who has been with Shanahan and G.M. John Lynch since Year 1.
Where is Aiyuk in the pecking order? Probably something approximating a dead heat with Deebo Samuel at No. 6, with cornerback Charvarius Ward not far behind.
Aiyuk got paid and is still around, even if the 49ers would have survived and possibly still thrived without him.
As for the “distraction” factor, that’s more of a fans and media thing. Having lived through the Raiders’ training camp with Antonio Brown, the Aiyuk hold-in was small potatoes.
And now it’s over and everyone can move on to gnashing their teeth over the Williams holdout, and then the Purdy extension looming in 2025.
The only thing more annoying than having to pay so many good players top dollar is not having them at all.