The Cowboys can still win the NFC East even if their offseason stunk

Jerry Jones, owner and de facto general manager of the Dallas Cowboys, told reporters two days before the 2024 NFL Draft he felt good about his offseason acquisitions. He spoke as if 2024 was a launching pad; the genesis of a new era for the Cowboys.

“We feel great about what we’ve been in free agency,” Jones told the media. “All-in. All-in. All-in. We’re all-in with these young guys. We’re all-in with this draft.”

This was a curious statement. Jones hadn’t committed all-in money to starting quarterback Dak Prescott. He hadn’t extended All-Pros CeeDee Lamb or Micah Parsons. His biggest free agent signing, at that moment, was 32-year-old linebacker Eric Kendricks.

This was a grim reality for a team whose salary cap management meant shedding veteran talent designed to win a Super Bowl rather than add it. But even without headlining additions or locked-in contracts for his biggest stars, Dallas has a strong chance to be the NFC East’s first repeat champion since 2004.

Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, playing angry football, can keep the Cowboys offense great

Aside from maybe Lamar Jackson, there’s no quarterback fans like to argue about more than Prescott. The former fourth round pick has been a one-man economy for ESPN’s daytime shows and talk radio alike. The indelible stain on his resume is a 2-5 playoff resume that serves as the end-game for anyone convinced he can’t be an elite quarterback.

The other side of the coin is, for the most part, Prescott’s been very, very good. Since 2016, 36 quarterbacks have taken at least 2,000 NFL snaps. Prescott’s 0.166 adjusted expected points added (EPA) ranks seventh among them behind only Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers and, uh, Jimmy Garoppolo (look, the metric isn’t perfect).

Slide that scale down to 100 postseason snaps, and Prescott’s number drops to 0.155 — 13th out of 23 qualified quarterbacks and, (long inhale) right below Blake Bortles.

That’s still ahead of Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts and Drew Brees, which really showcases why Prescott, with his 73-41 regular season record and 99.0 career passer rating, is such a lightning bolt. It also illustrates why Jones may be hesitant to give him a market value contract even as it gets more expensive each year. It also puts a lot of pressure on Prescott as free agency looms — right when Dallas’s roster management has left him to deal with significant turnover.

The Cowboys lost four different players who took at least 50 percent of the team’s offensive snaps last season; left tackle Tyron Smith, center Tyler Biadasz, wideout Michael Gallup and running back Tony Pollard. That means two new starters on the offensive line — a pair of blue chip rookies in Tyler Guyton and Cooper Beebe — and a cadre of skill players that will rely heavily on relative NFL geriatrics in Brandin Cooks and Ezekiel Elliott.

This may not matter, because Prescott has CeeDee Lamb.

Prescott made Lamb his ultra huckleberry last year and turned that into the first All-Pro honor of his career and a second place finish in MVP voting. Lamb was a monster; 135 catches, 1,749 receiving yards and 2.68 yards per route run (YPRR), fifth-best in the NFL. He stands to somehow improve on those numbers in an offense light on playmakers and in the midst of his own standoff with Jones. Lamb is playing out the final year of his rookie contract and staring down an extension that should pay him Justin Jefferson type money at $35 million annually over four years.

That All-Pro to All-Pro connection alone will keep last season’s No. 1 scoring offense above average at the very least (and it helps Guyton and Beebe both look capable as inexpensive blockers). The continued emergence of Jake Ferguson will help as well. The YPRR metric wasn’t as kind to him, ranking him 15th among last season’s 56 qualified tight ends. However, his 71 catches and 761 yards were each top 10 numbers and likely to rise alongside his target share this fall.

The real question is whether an Elliott-Rico Dowdle tailback rotation can provide meaningful ground support. Elliott remains a pro who can be trusted as a receiver and pass blocker, but his -0.39 rush yards over expected (RYOE) were seventh-worst in the NFL last season. Dowdle is more efficient — his 0.15 yards created per carry last year were slightly better than Pollard (0.14) but he only has 96 regular season carries in three years as a pro.

This suggests 2024 will be another season where Prescott has to sling it. And while a single injury could derail a top heavy, thin lineup, it could also be the year Prescott establishes himself as an undeniably elite quarterback. Of course, if he lands somewhere in between his team should still be alright because…

The Cowboys’ defense is a chaos engine

There are few defenses in the league capable of swinging the outcome of a game on a single play like Dallas. Micah Parsons has 40.5 sacks in three seasons as a pro and in 2023 averaged a negative play — either a sack or a tackle for loss — on roughly five percent of his snaps, per Sumer Sports. DaRon Bland had seven interceptions and five pick-sixes en route to first-team All-Pro honors in 2023. Trevon Diggs had 11 interceptions and a pair of pick-sixes en route to first-team All-Pro honors in 2021.

By those powers combined, the Cowboys can thoroughly devastate opponents in a span of seconds.

Dallas fielded a top five defense even with Diggs missing all but two games due to injury. Bland and Parsons were the headliners and Demarcus Lawrence earned a Pro Bowl nod despite underwhelming counting stats (his four sacks failed to gauge his impact on the line). But other players stepped up to ensure this defense rolled.

Osa Odighizuwa continued to be an overlooked piece of the machine, finishing second on the roster in quarterback hits (13) and had as many pressures as Lawrence while maintaining a solid base against the run. Malik Hooker provided above average help as both a pass deterrent and tackler from his perch at safety.

Kendricks is an inexpensive gamble on a one-year deal to punch up the off-ball linebacker corps. His coverage is a problem — he’s allowed a passer rating over 100 each of the last three seasons — but he’s a perceptive veteran who knows where the ball will be and how to stop it. Demarvion Overshown’s return from the torn ACL that cost him his rookie season could be an even bigger addition. He brings 4.5-second 40 speed to a 6-foot-3, 220 pound frame that should give Dallas an extra weapon to deploy against tight ends or crushing gaps against the run.

It’s probably a little silly to get too hyperactive about a 32-year-old and a third round draft pick coming off a significant injury and without any regular season snaps to his name, but it’s easy to see how Overshown fits in the puzzle. If he and Kendricks can provide stability to the middle of the field, it creates more room for Parsons, Diggs and Bland to make those risk/reward bets that pay off with huge negative plays. So while the departures of veterans like Stephon Gilmore, Jayron Kearse and Dorance Armstrong Jr. sting, there’s still reason to believe this will be a top five unit once again.

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Despite the accounting that’s forced some veterans out and left others to twist in the wind during extension talks, the Cowboys are well set for 2024. It doesn’t hurt that half the NFC East looks like a mess (Washington Commanders, New York Giants) and Dallas’s top competition spiraled out with a 1-6 record in its final seven games of 2023 (Philadelphia Eagles).

Still, in a season where it became clear this team needed an extra gear to speed past the playoff failures that have become a tragic tradition, the Cowboys were stuck hoping low-budget additions and in-house development could save them. That’s not a terrible plan — it’s basically how Bill Belichick kept the Patriots’ dynasty rolling — but it’s not entirely inspiring, particularly with some huge pending free agents on the roster.

There is, of course, time to fix things. Jones could make this whole premise obsolete before this preview even goes live. But recent history suggests the mercurial owner will do things his way, tying his $10 billion franchise in more knots while searching for the glory of the 1990s. And that could be all it takes to keep a good Cowboys team from greatness.