Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Chiesa prediction, pick, start time, odds for UFC on ABC 7

Tony Ferguson and Michael Chiesa meet Saturday on the main card of UFC on ABC 7 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom. 

Last event: 3-2
UFC main cards, 2024: 64-56-3

Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Chiesa UFC on ABC 7 preview

Justin Gaethje (TKO), Charles Oliveira (unanimous decision), Beneil Dariush (unanimous decision), Michael Chandler (knockout), Nate Diaz (submission), Bobby Green (submission), and Paddy Pimblett (unanimous decision): Yes, it’s been a tough slate dating back to May 2020, but seven losses in a row is still seven losses in a row. One more, and Ferguson (25-10 MMA, 15-8 UFC) will hold the UFC record for consecutive losses. Hard to believe Ferguson, who once was on an impressive 12-fight winning streak, has reached this point in his career. …Chiesa (16-7 MMA, 11-7 UFC) has reached a crossroads in his career, as well, caused by a combination of injuries and a current three-fight skid with losses to Vicente Luque, Sean Brady and most recently Kevin Holland in July 2023.

Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Chiesa UFC on ABC 7 expert pick, prediction

Despite these two originally being booked to fight at lightweight back in 2016, Chiesa and Ferguson now find themselves meeting up a division over eight years later.

Although Ferguson still technically holds a winning record against UFC-level southpaws at 4-3, those stats hold little water given the stylistic dynamic of this matchup. And despite being a “Ferguson truther” during his cursed series with Khabib Nurmagomedov that never came to be, I find myself much less confident in the former interim champion these days.

I still believe that Ferguson – at one point – was the uncrowned king at 155 pounds. Those days, however, are long gone.

Even though D’arce chokes appear to be real-life kryptonite for Chiesa, I can’t help but see the more concentrated game of “Maverick” mowing through whatever is left of the once-ferocious Ferguson at this point in their perspective careers.

The pick is Chiesa to lock up a rear-naked choke by the beginning of Round 2.

Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Chiesa UFC on ABC 7 odds

The oddsmakers and the public are heavily favoring the younger fighter, listing Chiesa -620 and Ferguson +430 via FanDuel.

Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Chiesa UFC on ABC 7 start time, how to watch

Ferguson and Chiesa are expected to walk out to the cage at approximately 4 p.m. ET. The fight will air on ABC and stream on ESPN+.