Dillon Gabriel's rare surge to Heisman favorite is probably bad news for the Oregon QB's chances of actually winning
When we last checked in on the 2024 Heisman Trophy favorites after the spring games wrapped up, it was very fair to assume the odds would remain static for the rest of the postseason.
After all, players were headed home for the summer and, until training camps began in August, there wouldn’t be much news or video clips to get bettors and oddsmakers riled up.
That all blew up this week as Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel saw his odds make an extremely rare July surge, boosting him to the outright preseason favorite at +735 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
After the spring practice session closed, Gabriel’s odds were at +1000 — the same as they had been after the 2023 season officially ended with Michigan’s championship victory.
So what happened last week? And why is it not great news for Gabriel? Well, to answer that you need to remember that big bettors tend to view sports — specifically the futures markets — in different ways than most avid college fans and Heisman voters.
Why did Dillon Gabriel’s preseason Heisman odds surge?
ESPN’s David Purdum had the same question this week and got some terrific insight from oddsmakers.
The short version is that respected bettors started dropping enough cash on Gabriel that it caused the books to adjust his line.
[Gabriel] had been as long as 14-1 at other sportsbooks before an uptick of action showed up on the Ducks quarterback over the Fourth of July holiday weekend.
The SuperBook in Las Vegas started receiving bets on Gabriel on Sunday, causing his odds to tighten from 14-1 to 9-1.
“I think there were some maybe influential people that hopped on it and said they liked it on some public spaces,” Chase Michaelson, oddsmaker for the SuperBook, told ESPN. “It’s people we respect that like Gabriel, and I think there are lots of reasons to like him.”
According to Purdum, Gabriel has the highest handle at ESPN BET while receiving more than twice as much money as any other Heisman candidate at BetMGM since the Fourth of July.
So that means Gabriel is a lock to win the Heisman, right?
It absolutely does not.
In fact, topping the preseason Heisman favorites is more likely a kiss of death than a good omen.
Since 2009, which is as far back as Sports Odds History tracks, only one preseason favorite won the Heisman (Marcus Mariota in 2014). It’s been far more common to crown a Heisman who wasn’t even on the board when the season began — DeVonta Smith (2020), Johnny Manziel (2012), Cam Newton (2010), Mark Ingram (2009).
Even taking into account his status as the preseason favorite, Gabriel only holds implied odds of 11.75 percent to win.
If preseason favorites rarely win the Heisman, why is money pouring in on Dillon Gabriel?
This is the part where it gets a little wonky.
Sure, Gabriel isn’t a bad bet, per se. He’s passed for at least 3,100 yards and 25 touchdowns in each of his last two seasons at Oklahoma and now joins an Oregon offense that led the nation in passing last year (346.9 yards per game).
But there are two huge reasons why serious big bettors would throw away cash on a player they don’t think will win.
- It causes other players — like Quinn Ewers, Carson Beck or Jalen Milroe — to see their odds get longer, which make them more appealing as bigger paydays.
- Because some bettors need losses on their resume to make sure sportsbooks don’t start limiting how much they can wager.
We saw the most extreme version of this most recently with Bronny James at the NBA Draft and with the Rookie of the Year race. Sharp bettors know he won’t win, but are fine taking the loss because they’re trying to play dumb.
When you wanna get your limits raised a little bit pic.twitter.com/gDyvvZv2DO
— Alex Baker (@AwesemoDFS) June 21, 2024
Is that what’s happening here? It’s hard to say. But it’s just as hard to say whether Gabriel should or shouldn’t be the favorite right now, too.
The only clear takeaway is that when something catches the attention of sportsbooks during what’s typically a dead period on the market, bettors should keep their heads on a swivel and avoid falling into the hype trap.