Euro 2024: Predictions and odds for the semifinals, featuring France's epic battle with Spain

Eventually, the cream always rises to the top.

From start to finish, Euro 2024 has already played out like one of the most exciting men’s international soccer tournaments anyone could remember. However, despite some upstart underdogs making deep runs, some all-time legends choking in the biggest possible spots, and an entire country waiting with bated breath over its team’s place in the tournament, the final four in Germany has more or less played out exactly as expected.

These semifinals are all blue bloods and chalk, baby.

In one corner of the ring, we’ve got a historic rivalry that goes far beyond soccer. I’m talking, of course, about Kylian Mbappe’s France and Lamine Yamal’s Spain in another matchup that feels extremely worthy of a Final. Did you know these two nations haven’t played against each other in a knockout round at a major tournament in over a decade?

We were way overdue, dearest readers.

On the other end, we’ve got the English, sitting in their third semifinals of a tournament in four go-arounds with Gareth Southgate. There’s little doubt England has the requisite talent to finally win its first men’s European championship. But the Dutch, a gifted, if fellow historically snakebitten group, will have other ideas before letting Jude Bellingham and Co. get the monkey off their back.

In a round that should live up to the hype, here are my picks for the Euro 2024 semifinals. All odds are courtesy of BetMGM.

Tuesday, July 9: France vs. Spain

As thrilling as these Euros have been, most teams haven’t consistently impressed me. Even some heavyweights have seen drab, uninspiring stints of play that made any reasonable soul wonder how they won a single game. Well, except for the juggernaut Spanish.

Your move, Didier Deschamps and France.

While Spain has effectively controlled the proceedings in every game it’s played, the French have been, weirdly, grinding results out. I’m not exaggerating. Despite having one of the better rosters on hand in Germany, France has yet to score an open-play goal through five games. It’s wild that a team this good would struggle this much to put the ball in the net, but it helps speak to how the French have been losing the offensive margins they’re accustomed to winning.

Of course, on the flip side, France hasn’t conceded a goal in open play either. That’s probably just as important:

France are in the semi final with zero open play goals scored. First time ever in the history of the Euros.

Zero goals also conceded from open play. pic.twitter.com/TWiQOjW0yS

— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) July 5, 2024

When it comes to this semifinal duel, I think we’re pretty evenly matched. There’s enough star power between Rodri, Dani Olmo, Nico Williams, Lamine Yamal for the Spanish and Kylian Mbappe, N’Golo Kanté, Ousmane Dembélé, and Antoine Griezmann for the French to last us a lifetime. And both squads seldom make mistakes to beat themselves.

However, when push comes to shove, I trust Spain more.

From depth to how its top-end talent has actually performed in these Euros, it’s clear the Spanish are ready to battle for their fourth European championship. With all due respect to the French, that grind-it-out style eventually wears thin.

Prediction: Spain 2, France 1

Wednesday, July 10: England vs. Netherlands

From a historical perspective, few things are sadder than a big soccer game between the English and the Dutchmen.

This is England’s third major semifinal appearance under Gareth Southgate — a remarkable achievement with a true golden generation. Yet, it somehow manages to fall flat on its face before finishing the job. It’s basically a trademark for this bunch. The Netherlands, meanwhile, is back competing with the big boys after a dry spell featuring just one quarterfinal berth (at the 2022 World Cup) in its previous four tournaments. Mind you, this has often happened despite usually having some of the most talented rosters in the world.

If anyone knows heartbreak better than the English, it’s the Dutch.

This late into the tournament, I find England’s continued approach confounding.

Southgate seemingly refuses to make any meaningful tactical adjustments that would jumpstart his predictable offense. It’s hard to misuse a core featuring Bellingham, Harry Kane, Phil Foden, and Bukayo Saka, but not for Southgate. And it almost seems like England is content simply not to lose games rather than go all out and earn a hard-fought victory. It’s infuriating to watch as a neutral observer.

This isn’t great news for the English because it feels like the Netherlands loves playing with volatility.

The Dutch have scored at least two goals in four of their five games, and they have been very comfortable chasing deficits. For a team with less comparative star power than their remaining peers, the Dutch are selling out, pressing for quality goals, and being rewarded accordingly. After initial skepticism about the Oranje, it’s a delightful brand of soccer that has won me over.

It’s the semifinals, so this matchup will be full of drama no matter what. But I think the Dutch are more willing to take risks. The soccer gods usually smile at these kinds of teams.

Prediction: Netherlands 3, England 2