NHL draft lottery: Five things to know before today’s drawing

SAN JOSE – Weeks, even months, of waiting by the San Jose Sharks and their fans will end later today when the NHL conducts its draft lottery just outside New York City.

By finishing with the NHL’s worst record at 19-54-9, the Sharks have a 25.5% chance of coming away with the No. 1 overall selection and earning the right to draft Boston University center Macklin Celebrini. Celebrini’s playing style, detailed game, and competitive nature have drawn comparisons to former Chicago Blackhawks captain and three-time Stanley Cup winner Jonathan Toews.

The Sharks also have a 18.8% chance of winding up with the second overall pick, and a 55.7% chance of having the third overall selection.

The lottery begins at 3:30 p.m. (PDT) and will be televised in the U.S. on ESPN and streamed on ESPN+.

Here are five things to know about today’s draft lottery.

1. HISTORY SUGGESTS: Every year from 2016 to 2020, the NHL held three lottery draws to determine the first three spots in the draft order. Under those rules, the team that had the worst record ended up with the No. 1 pick only twice – in 2016 (Toronto Maple Leafs) and 2018 (Buffalo Sabres).

But since the NHL began holding only two draws, the team with the worst record has had the top pick two of three times. The Sabres kept the top selection in 2021 and took defenseman Owen Power, and in 2022, the Canadiens won the lottery and drafted forward Juraj Slafkovsky first overall.

The exception was last year, of course, when the Chicago Blackhawks won the lottery despite having the third-best odds. This gave them the first overall pick, which they spent on center Connor Bedard.

2. STAY WEST, YOUNG MAN?: Adding up all of the percentages of the teams that can win the lottery and select first overall, there is a 48% chance Celebrini will go to a Pacific Division team.

In addition to the Sharks’ 25.5%, Anaheim (11.5%), Seattle (6.0%), and Calgary (5.0%) can also end up with the No. 1 selection. There is an additional 21% chance that Celebrini is in the Western Conference, with Chicago at 13.5% and Utah at 7.5%.

Celebrini, 17, has West Coast ties, having been born in Vancouver and spending time in the Bay Area as a young teenager, playing for the Jr. Sharks in 2019-2020.

3. RETURNING HOME: Celebrini and Columbus Blue Jackets center Adam Fantilli were originally supposed to compete for Team Canada at this month’s World Championships in the Czech Republic. Tuesday, though, it was reported that veteran NHL forwards Pierre-Luc Dubois, Nick Paul, and Brandon Hagel would be joining the team, making Celebrini and Fantilli expendable.

Per Darren Dreger of TSN, Celebrini and Fantilli accepted their invitation with the understanding that they may not have a roster spot if more experienced players were made available. Both were also given the option to stay in Prague, but Celebrini and Fantilli have decided to return home.

4. HOW THE LOTTERY WORKS: For each of the two drawings, 14 ping pong balls, numbered 1 through 14, are placed in a lottery machine. That allows for 1,001 possible combinations (one combination is deleted to make it an even 1,000). Each lottery team is assigned a certain number of four-number combinations. The Sharks have 185 combinations, more than any other team.

The lottery machine selects four balls, and the resulting four-number series is matched against a chart showing every possible combination. The team that has that combination wins the lottery.

Last year, the Sharks had the first three numbers drawn, 5, 13, and 4, and just needed a 12 to pop up in the bingo-style machine. Instead, a nine came up, giving the Blackhawks the winning combination and the right to select Bedard, who had 61 points in 68 games this season and is a finalist for this year’s Calder Trophy award as the league’s top rookie.

This year’s tables are here.

5. WHAT ELSE TO LOOK FOR: The Sharks also own a top-10-protected first-round draft pick from Pittsburgh as part of the trade that sent Erik Karlsson to the Penguins last August. Pittsburgh, seeded 14th, has a 1.5% chance of winning the lottery.

If the Penguins do not move into fourth overall after next month’s lottery, the Sharks will take ownership of that selection, which will be 14th overall.

If they move up in the draft, the Penguins can keep that first-round draft pick and defer the pick they owe the Sharks to 2025. That pick would be unprotected.

If the Penguins, Flyers, Wild, Red Wings or Blues win the first lottery, they would move up 10 spots, and the Sharks would be awarded the No. 1 overall pick.

NHL Draft Lottery odds

San Jose Sharks  18.5%
Chicago Blackhawks 13.5%
Anaheim Ducks  11.5%
Columbus Blue Jackets 9.5%
Montreal Canadiens 8.5%
Utah 7.5%
Ottawa Senators 6.5%
Seattle Kraken 6.0%
Calgary Flames 5.0%
New Jersey Devils 3.5%
Buffalo Sabres 3.0%
Philadelphia Flyers 2.5%
Minnesota Wild 2.0%
Pittsburgh Penguins *1.5%
Detroit Red Wings 0.5%
St. Louis Blues 0.5%

*Pittsburgh will transfer its first-round pick in either the 2024 or 2025 NHL Draft to San Jose. If Pittsburgh’s 2024 first-round pick becomes a top 10 pick due to the Draft Lottery, Pittsburgh will have the option to transfer its 2025 first-round pick to San Jose instead of its 2024 1st-round pick.