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3 NFL Draft bets based on last-minute intel from around the league (including J.J. McCarthy to Denver)

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For The Win (usatoday.com) 

We are deep into Silly Season around the NFL as the start of the 2024 draft on Thursday night draws closer. That makes this a pretty scary time for bettors and sportsbooks alike.

Wagering on pro drafts is one of the few areas where oddsmakers and bettors are on fairly even ground. There are no algorithms to work out pricing. It’s simply a race to see which side can amass the most correct information first.

Which leaves plenty of opportunities for bettors to jump on.

If you believe what you’re hearing from NFL insiders on Draft Week — a notorious time for the deliberate spread misinformation to fool other teams – these props might be for you.

All odds via BetMGM

Minnesota Vikings to draft Bo Nix (+450)

One look at the Vikings’ roster makes is pretty clear how bad this team needs its next franchise QB. Minnesota currently has Sam Darnold as QB1 followed by Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall. Which made this nugget from Yahoo Sports’ Charles Robinson on Tuesday a bit intriguing:

A very well-connected league source told Yahoo Sports they firmly believe that if the Patriots take Maye, the Vikings are comfortable standing down in trade talks and using one of their two first-round picks — either No. 11 or No. 23 — to select Oregon quarterback Bo Nix. It’s worth noting here that Nix had a private workout for the Vikings earlier this month.

Denver Broncos to draft J.J. McCarthy (+325)

The Vikings’ QB room looks like paradise compared to Denver’s, which our Christian D’Andrea noted might be the saddest in the league. Hope, or at least another attempt at it, might be on the way in the form of Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy — if we’re to believe Peyton Manning.

Washington Commanders to draft Drake Maye (+350)

All of the steam is on the Commanders to take Jayden Daniels No. 2 overall and the team has reportedly declined to make the pick available in trade talks. But it all seems just a bit too sketchy to trust for now. As the public keeps hammering away on Daniels, Maye actually seems like the better bet for a franchise that continues to grab North Carolina products (Sam Howell in 2022, Dyami Brown in 2021 and Cole Holcomb in 2019).

Consider this the zag play while everyone else zigs.