Karl-Anthony Towns’ injury shakes up the entire dynamic of the race for the West's top seed

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been riding high all year as one of the NBA’s best stories. They’ve led the Western Conference standings for most of the way and even joined the all-important 40-before-20 championship contender club.

Unfortunately, Karl-Anthony Towns’ meniscus injury — on which no one can agree about a recovery timeline — will likely change things for them. That’s because Towns is Minnesota’s second-best offensive player behind Anthony Edwards, and it already struggled to score consistently when he was healthy. Minnesota’s results have taken a noticeable dip lately, too, with the team losing three of its last seven games at the time of this writing. Perhaps most importantly, Towns’ injury will probably greatly benefit their two Northwest division rivals, the reigning champion Denver Nuggets and the young Oklahoma City Thunder.

In fact, it might make the Western Conference race for the No. 1 seed a definitive two-horse race between Denver and Oklahoma City down the stretch of the regular season:

If I had to pick a team to finish with the West’s No. 1 seed, it would probably be the Thunder. At least for now.

According to Tankathon, Denver and Oklahoma City have two of the weaker remaining strengths of schedule. But this is a very young Thunder team’s first rodeo, the first time they are making their mark. They are not at the point in their time together where they will likely occasionally take their foot off the gas in the regular season the way many veteran NBA teams do, like the veteran Nuggets. Oklahoma City will probably keep its pedal to the metal as much as possible before the start of the postseason in late April.

Meanwhile, fresh off a championship run where they played 20 extra games, it has been abundantly clear that the Nuggets shift between flipping their switch into gear as they deem necessary. This has been about a concerted effort to conserve their best fastballs for the grind of the playoffs in pursuit of back-to-back titles. At a certain point, as much as it would undoubtedly be beneficial to force opposing teams to play as many games as possible in Denver’s high altitude, the experienced Nuggets understand that they can win on the road when they absolutely have to. This isn’t to say that the Nuggets have no chance at the West’s No. 1 seed. It’s more that they will prioritize their starters’ health and energy, especially reigning Finals MVP Nikola Jokić, above everything else.

As for the Timberwolves, it’s tough to have an optimistic outlook about them without their second-best scorer available for a little while. Minnesota has one of the tougher remaining strengths of schedule and still has to play the Nuggets three more times (including twice in Denver). At this rate, the Timberwolves may likely enter the playoffs as the West’s No. 3 seed. If they’re not careful, they might even slip to No. 4 behind the Los Angeles Clippers.

Such is life in the NBA when unlucky injuries strike.