Men’s Basketball Preview: Baylor Looks to Snap Kansas’ Home Winning Streak

Another big weekend in the world of men’s college basketball is upon us. While it won’t match last week’s four top-10 showdowns, there’s plenty to look forward to over the next few games, including several games with huge NCAA tournament selection and seeding implications. Can big brands like Michigan State and Gonzaga take steps toward punching their ticket to March? Top seeds are also on the line, especially after North Carolina’s home loss Tuesday against Clemson.

Here’s what you’ll want to pay attention to over the weekend.

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The headliners

No. 10 Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State Spartans, Feb. 10, 2 p.m.

Michigan State’s place in the NCAA tournament isn’t quite secure yet. The Spartans are just 2–7 in Quad 1 games and 4–9 against the top two quadrants, and MSU’s résumé-based metrics (KPI and strength of record) look more like a team on the outside looking in than that of a tournament team. Getting a big win to solidify its standing is a necessity, and the Spartans get a golden opportunity to do just that in East Lansing on Saturday afternoon. Illinois won the teams’ first meeting of the year, getting 15 points each from Marcus Domask, Coleman Hawkins and Ty Rodgers to overcome not having Terrence Shannon Jr. for that contest. With Shannon back, the Illini are a more dynamic offensive team. Does Michigan State have the firepower to keep up?

No. 12 Auburn Tigers at Florida Gators, Feb. 10, 3 p.m.

Only one team in the nation ranks in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency: Auburn. The Tigers were incredibly impressive in dismantling in-state rival Alabama Wednesday, earning their biggest win of the season. Can they get a third Quad 1 win in as many games Saturday on the road at Florida? The Gators sit squarely on the NCAA tournament bubble, but were in the field in SI’s most recent projection thanks to a recent road win at Kentucky. Florida does have the size to match Auburn star big Johni Broome down low, but keeping up with this Auburn offense is challenging given how well the Tigers defend the rim.

Gonzaga Bulldogs at No. 17 Kentucky Wildcats, Feb. 10, 4 p.m.

Both these teams are at something of a crossroads entering this rare February nonconference clash. Kentucky has stumbled since asserting itself as a potential contender in mid-January, with a porous defense leading to losses against South Carolina, Florida and Tennessee in recent weeks. Meanwhile, a more than two decade-long streak of going dancing is in jeopardy for Gonzaga, which lacks a Quad 1 win early in February. The Bulldogs desperately need a win here to avoid needing to win the WCC tournament to get in the field, but Kentucky can’t afford much more slippage after its late January swoon.

No. 13 Baylor Bears at No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks, Feb. 10, 6 p.m.

Two of the last three national champions facing off in one of the sport’s best venues? Sign me up. The Bears and Jayhawks are in the thick of a crowded Big 12 title race, and a win here for either team would be a big step toward a regular season title. Kansas has shown some cracks on the road, but is undefeated in the friendly confines of Allen Fieldhouse, including a dominant win over Houston last weekend. Can Baylor, riding high off three straight wins, end that streak? The Bears’ elite three-point shooting will have to travel for them to pull the upset.

Related: How Big 12 Men’s College Basketball Keeps Getting Stronger

No. 8 Arizona Wildcats at Colorado Buffaloes, Feb. 10, 10 p.m.

Arizona’s race for a No. 1 seed is on, but getting there will require some big road wins given the relative weakness of the Pac-12. Coming up with a win in Boulder would certainly qualify. Colorado is a top-30 team in the NET and traditionally has a tremendous home-court advantage at altitude in Boulder. And Colorado will be desperate, given that the Buffaloes sit squarely on the NCAA tournament bubble thanks to a lack of high-level wins. This should be a fun nightcap for a full Saturday of hoops.

Bubble battles

• No. 24 San Diego State Aztecs at Nevada Wolf Pack: The dream of a six-bid Mountain West is alive and well after Nevada won at Utah State earlier this week. The Pack are still right on the cut line though, so winning at home against an excellent San Diego State team is close to a must.
• No. 5 Houston Cougars at Cincinnati Bearcats: Cincinnati’s road wins at BYU and Texas Tech are keeping them in the thick of the NCAA tournament conversation, but they’re still looking for a résumé-topping win. Beating the NET’s top team in Houston would certainly qualify.
• Providence Friars at Butler Bulldogs: The Big East has nearly half its league teetering one way or another around the NCAA tournament cut line, which should produce some epic games in February and March. This one certainly qualifies. Can Devin Carter and Josh Oduro will the Friars to another big win?
• Washington State Cougars at Oregon Ducks: The Pac-12’s hopes of maximizing bids in March rely on teams like these two finding their way into the field. Washington State getting yet another Quad 1 win would be huge for the Cougars’ chances of dancing for the first time in more than 15 years.
• Seton Hall Pirates at Villanova Wildcats: Villanova’s 12–11 record is an eyesore for the selection committee, so protecting home court here against a feisty Seton Hall team is vital if the Wildcats want to avoid missing the Big Dance for a second straight season.

Mid-Major game of the weekend: Akron Zips at James Madison Dukes

The MAC-Sun Belt Challenge gives us midseason matchups with an ode to the old ESPN BracketBusters games. These two teams are ones to keep on eye on in March: JMU is 21–3 on the year with a road win at Michigan State, while Akron has won 10 of its last 11 games to sit at 18–5.