Men’s Bracket Watch: Initial Predictions As March Madness Looms

Just 40 days separate us from Selection Sunday, with the calendar flipped to February and conference regular seasons about halfway gone. Which teams are positioned to go dancing and which are bound to be sweating come early March? We finally have enough data points to put together a projected bracket for the 2024 NCAA tournament field, so here’s your first look at Sports Illustrated’s forecast for the field of 68, with notes on what to watch as the season reaches its home stretch.

On the Bubble:

Last Four Byes:

Northwestern Wildcats
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Seton Hall Pirates
Butler Bulldogs

Last Four In:

Ole Miss Rebels
Florida Gators
Virginia Cavaliers
Washington State Cougars

First Four Out:

St. John’s Red Storm
Cincinnati Bearcats
Colorado Buffaloes
Villanova Wildcats

Next Four Out:

Providence Friars
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Memphis Tigers

The Big East is prominent in the early bubble picture, with five of the league’s 11 teams within six spots of either making or missing the Big Dance. Seton Hall and Butler have the best wins in league play, with the Bulldogs’ road victories at Marquette and Creighton particularly notable. Things have gotten dicey in a hurry for Rick Pitino, whose St. John’s team has lost five of six to fall below the cut line. Villanova and Providence are on the outside looking in as of now, with the Wildcats in particular a fascinating test case with some elite wins (neutral court over North Carolina most notably), bad losses (Penn, St. Joe’s, Drexel) and a high quantity of total losses (10). A critical six weeks looms for coach Kyle Neptune in his second season.

Another team worth zooming in on is Washington State, off to a 7–4 start in Pac-12 play. The Cougars are squarely on the bubble as things stand today, a remarkable story given what the team lost from last season, let alone the bigger-picture state of Wazzu sports after being left out of the conference realignment party. There’s a very real path to the Big Dance for Kyle Smith’s Cougars, which would be the program’s first trip since 2008.

Midwest Region:

No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers* vs. No. 16 NC Central Eagles*/Merrimack Warriors*
No. 8 New Mexico Lobos vs. No. 9 Clemson Tigers
No. 5 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 12 McNeese State Cowboys*
No. 4 Dayton Flyers vs. No. 13 Charlotte 49ers*
No. 6 Colorado State Rams vs. No. 11 Grand Canyon Antelopes*
No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide* vs. No. 14 Samford Bulldogs*
No. 7 Utah State Aggies* vs. No. 10 Butler Bulldogs
No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks* vs. No. 15 Oakland Golden Grizzlies*

Purdue edges out UConn for the No. 1 overall seed as of today. Both résumés are hard to poke holes in, but the Boilers’ body of work is incredibly deep, with 15 wins against the top two quadrants and high-profile victories over the likes of Marquette, Tennessee, Alabama and Arizona. That said, the more important thing for both UConn and Purdue is protecting regional paths to the Final Four: Purdue would love to play in Indianapolis and Detroit in the first two weekends, while UConn’s preferred path is assuredly Brooklyn and Boston. Both teams are in great shape to do just that, regardless of which team claims the top overall mark.

Our most rapid riser as of late is South Carolina, currently a projected No. 5 seed. The Gamecocks’ win at Tennessee last week might just be the best individual win for any team in the nation this season. South Carolina is 19–3 and on pace to finish in the top third of a loaded SEC. A weak nonconference schedule may cap the Gamecocks’ seeding potential a bit, but South Carolina should, if nothing else, be wearing home colors in the first round of the Big Dance.

East Region:

No. 1 UConn Huskies* vs. No. 16 Eastern Kentucky Colonels*/Grambling State Tigers*
No. 8 Boise State Broncos vs. No. 9 Michigan State Spartans
No. 5 Florida Atlantic Owls vs. No. 12 Richmond Spiders*
No. 4 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 13 Akron Zips*
No. 6 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 11 Indiana State Sycamores*
No. 3 Baylor Bears vs. No. 14 Morehead State Eagles*
No. 7 TCU Horned Frogs vs. No. 10 Mississippi State Bulldogs
No. 2 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 15 Eastern Washington Eagles*

With blue bloods UConn, Duke, Kentucky and Michigan State—as well as programs with recent March success like Wisconsin, Baylor and FAU—this region would feature storylines galore, that’s for sure.

One of the more interesting teams to seed at the moment is Kentucky, whose résumé lacks some luster after a recent cold spell. Outside of a huge neutral court win over North Carolina in December, Kentucky’s best win is on the road at Florida. And overall, only three of Kentucky’s 15 wins are against teams anywhere close to the NCAA tournament field. The Wildcats will have chances to right the ship, but right now this résumé needs some work to get back in the mix for a top-four protected seed.

Is Michigan State in serious danger of not dancing? As of now, probably not. The Spartans are safely in the field today as a No. 9 seed. But given MSU has already amassed eight losses and will likely play just two more Quad 1 games before the Big Ten tournament, the margin for error is fairly slim. Beating Illinois this weekend would make things a whole lot easier the rest of the way; without that, things could get interesting by Selection Sunday.

South Region:

No. 1 Houston Cougars vs. No. 16 Quinnipiac Bobcats*
No. 8 Utah Utes vs. No. 9 Nebraska Cornhuskers
No. 5 BYU Cougars vs. No. 12 UC Irvine Anteaters*
No. 4 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 13 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs*
No. 6 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 11 Ole Miss Rebels/Virginia Cavaliers
No. 3 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 14 High Point Panthers*
No. 7 Saint Mary's Gaels vs. No. 10 Seton Hall Pirates
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 15 Drexel Dragons*

Auburn finally has its first Quad 1 win, winning on the road at Ole Miss on Saturday after starting 0–3 such games. The Tigers are a fascinating case: Predictive metrics believe this to be an elite team, but the Tigers haven’t accomplished much yet to build out a résumé. For now, we’re slotting them as a No. 4 seed, though that could move up or down quite a bit depending on how the next month or so shakes out.

Defending national runner-up San Diego State has the best résumé of the whopping five Mountain West teams in the current projected field, and could garner serious consideration for a protected seed with a strong finish. The Aztecs have three Quad 1 wins, no losses outside of Quad 1 and strong metrics across the board.

West Region:

No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels* vs. No. 16 South Dakota State Jackrabbits*
No. 8 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 9 Texas A&M Aggies”
No. 5 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 12 Appalachian State Mountaineers*
No. 4 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 13 Yale Bulldogs*
No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 11 Florida Gators/Washington State Cougars
No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 14 Vermont Catamounts*
No. 7 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 10 Northwestern Wildcats
No. 2 Arizona Wildcats* vs. No. 15 Colgate Raiders*

Arizona is the highest-rated No. 2 seed, though there’s a clear divide right now between the Wildcats and North Carolina for the fourth No. 1 seed. Wins over Duke, Wisconsin and Alabama in nonconference play are feathers in Arizona’s cap, but a bad loss to Oregon State in Pac-12 play is a killer. They’ll need a very strong finish to creep onto the No. 1 line.

Texas has one of the stranger résumés in the projected field. The Longhorns are just .500 in games against the top three quadrants, and they own a bad loss at West Virginia. Despite that, Texas is safely in the field thanks to its impressive results on the road, with wins at Cincinnati, Oklahoma and TCU. I wouldn’t call the Longhorns a lock to dance just yet, but as of now, they’re in fairly good shape.