NFL Best Bets, Week 18: Betting big on the Ravens' ability to win meaningless games

There’s one week left in the 2023 NFL regular season. And when you’ve got a bottle bet going with a guy you’ve known since junior high AND your reputation on the line as a betting expert, that’s when you burn the boats and don’t look back.

That’s the situation our resident handicapper, the Rhode Island Scumbag, has found himself in this winter. 2023 was the backdrop to his hottest start yet before giving way to the cold snaps that have becoming a recurring nightmare in his three years blessing us with his locks to play (in September-October) and then quickly fade (in December and January). Meanwhile, my uncharacteristically steady non-Scumbag picks have allowed me to open up a sizable lead for a bottle of fine brown party liquor this guy said he’d hand deliver to Wisconsin.

Wisconsin, understandably is a long way from Rhode Island. And two flights is a long time to think about all the terrible bets you’ve made. So he’s going hard in an effort to catch up. 14 units across three locks gives him the chance to claim the regular season crown (in terms of total profit; overall pick percentage and the case of beer that comes with it is already all mine).

That’s a big wager in a weekend filled with meaningless games and rested starters. The upshot is, of course, not just winning our bottle bet but watching me absolutely lose my [expletive] mind via losing to this [expletive] guy thanks to a Hail Mary. Which, yeah, I can see the value in that.

Anyway, all Scumbag analysis is in blockquotes. My plays follow.

Welcome to the NFL in December and January… where my picks turn into complete garbage. I am going to put out three big plays; I would advise betting heavily on the opposite side.

My track record has shown that I cannot pick a playoff winner OR continue my hot starts to every NFL season. I had an absolute smash week about a month ago, and have since given most of those units back. If I can’t change that, you should at least be able to make some money off it.