The Week in Kazakhstan: Harder, Better, Faster

Kazakhstan’s ministry of foreign affairs said on September 27 that the country’s accession to the BRICS group is not on the agenda, because the Russian government suggested to suspend the admission of new members. Since January, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates are full members of the group. In July, during a meeting with Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, China’s President Xi Jinping said its country would support Kazakhstan’s membership. In June, however, Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov had urged the group to stop further admissions.

Almasadam Satkaliyev, the minister of energy, expects that the arbitration dispute between Kazakhstan’s government and the oil majors developing the Kashagan and Karachaganak oil and gas fields could be resolved by the end of the year. Although details are scant, the ongoing arbitration amounts to around $160 billion and concerns historic cost calculations, which the government argues were inflated in order to delay payments to the state budget. In another arbitration claim, the government is seeking a $5 billion compensation from the same consortia related to environmental pollution.

During a press conference in Almaty on September 25, Satkaliyev also pledged to increase Kazakhstan’s oil production to 100 million tons per year by 2030. Last year, the country’s total production amounted to 90 million tenge, in violation of promises made to the OPEC+ group of oil exporters, with whom Kazakhstan had agreed to keep production low in an effort to boost international oil prices.

Satkaliyev also said that oil exports to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline are likely to double next year. In 2025, Kazakhstan plans to pump a total of 2.5 million tons to Germany while this year’s plan accounts for 1.2 million tons. These represent marginal volumes compared to Kazakhstan’s total oil exports, which amount to around 70 million tons each year.

The government said that the flood season earlier this year caused 300 billion tenge ($627 million) in damages. The ministry of digital development said on September 24 that it will launch a new monitoring system on December 1, in an effort to improve forecasts and avoid this year’s time and cost overruns.

President Tokayev continued to reshuffle the National Security Committee (KNB) and appointed two deputy directors on September 23. Almas Naimantayev replaced Bakytbek Koszhanov, who had been in this position since January 2022. Marat Zhumabayev replaced Askar Amerkhanov, the former head of the foreign intelligence service who had been fired earlier in September.

A surge in youth suicides prompted the government to issue guidelines for parents, urging them to closely monitor their children's activity on social media and video games. Four underage children committed suicide in recent weeks and the ministry of education published on September 25 a list of games and books that should not be made available to children. Regarding two seven-graders who committed suicide on September 16, the ministry of interior told Vlast that it did not find any content, including video games, in their phones. According to the World Health Organization, Kazakhstan has one of the world’s highest rates of youth suicides.