Fantasy Focus: Nick Suzuki
For each of the last four seasons, Nick Suzuki has improved upon his point total from the year before. Will he able to continue that streak and reach the 90-point mark in 2025-26?
2024-25
Suzuki was a little slow out of the gate in the goal department, needing seven games before he scored his first of the season. On the other hand, he finished October averaging over a point per game so it wasn’t all bad. He got off to a tough start in November with a season-worst four-game pointless drought but then ended that with a four-point effort. He wasn’t quite at the point per game mark through the first quarter but he was still around the same point per game level as the year before, making for a solid start.
Suzuki made up for that in the second quarter of the regular season, nudging a little past that mark to put him at 42 points in 41 games in the first half. But his effectiveness waned for a bit after that as he managed just two goals and eight assists in the following 15 outings leading up to the 4 Nations Face-Off. Disappointed that he didn’t make Canada’s roster, he at least got a break to rest up for an important stretch run that saw the Habs obviously make it to the postseason.
It’s fair to say that the break was great for Suzuki. Coming out of that, he was the NHL’s leading scorer for the better part of a month and by the time the season ended, he wound up with 15 goals and 22 assists in just 26 games, good for the fourth-most points in the NHL in that stretch behind only Robert Thomas, David Pastrnak, and Nikita Kucherov. Pretty good company to be in and that played a big role in Montreal making the playoffs.
In the playoffs against Washington, Suzuki looked a bit run down and understandably so, given how much the top line was counted on over those last few weeks. He still managed two goals in the first three games but was held off the scoresheet although that top line as a group showed pretty well in terms of generating chances.
Regular Season Stats: 82 GP, 30-59-89, +19, 8 PIMS, 4 PPG, 9 GWG, 172 shots, 20:04 ATOI
Playoff Stats: 5 GP, 2-0-2, -5, 2 PIMS, 1 PPG, 0 GWG, 14 shots, 22:16 ATOI
5-Year Averages
(2020-21’s numbers have been extrapolated to an 82-game season.)
GP: 82
Goals: 26
Assists: 45
Points: 71
+/-: -9
PIMS: 29
PPG: 8
GWG: 3
Shots: 173
2025-26 Role
Considering how much success Montreal’s top line had last season (Suzuki with Juraj Slafkovsky and Cole Caufield), there’s little reason to think that Martin St. Louis will be breaking up that trio to start the season. And while in-season struggles or injuries could lead to some shuffling, the weak centre depth the Canadiens have means that Suzuki should be entrenched as the number one centre no matter what. No other player on this team is as secure in his role as the captain is.
Suzuki was also a permanent fixture on Montreal’s top power play unit last season and that’s unlikely to change. But in the second half, he started playing the full two minutes in an effort to try to get the second wave going. However, Kirby Dach is back, Ivan Demidov is set for his first full season, and Zachary Bolduc was also brought in. There are enough offensive-minded players that the Habs shouldn’t need to have Suzuki do that. They might still want to but his extra minutes will probably be needed elsewhere.
That would be the penalty kill. The departure of Christian Dvorak has opened up a key centre spot shorthanded. Dach probably won’t be an option there. Alex Newhook could be but his defensive game has left something to be desired thus far. Joe Veleno has killed penalties before but if everyone’s healthy, he might be a healthy scratch. Basically, Suzuki might very well be the best option for the second shorthanded duo (with Jake Evans centring the first group). And if they need to play him there, they’ll probably want to lower the power play minutes to balance things out and keep him in that 20-minute range.
Projected Stats
I expect Montreal’s second line will pick up a bit more of the offensive load and while that will take some pressure off Suzuki’s line (which is a good thing), it also wouldn’t surprise me if it cuts into the top line’s production just a little bit. Suzuki has also carried a shooting percentage over 17% the last two seasons and while it looks like he might be someone who carries a mark well above average (as someone who doesn’t shoot a ton), it could still drop a bit, lowering his goal potential a tad. Long story short, I think the streak of besting his point total each season comes to an end.
But even with that, Suzuki is still a solid pick in fantasy hockey. There’s a reason that his ADP is ranging between the high 40s and early 60s. He’s consistent and durable (having never missed a game) and that’s a high floor anyone can work with. For leagues that put a little higher emphasis on goals and ones that have shots as a scoring category, I’d bump him down a couple of spots but even so, he should be one of the first Habs coming off the board in drafts. (Personally, I think he should be the first Hab to get picked in most formats.)
GP: 82
Goals: 27
Assists: 56
Points: 83
+/-: +12
PIMS: 24
PPG: 6
GWG: 4
Shots: 175