Fantasy Focus: Mike Matheson
2025-26 is shaping up to be a big year for defenceman Mike Matheson as he’s entering the final season of his contract. However, with what the Habs have done this summer, will he have a chance to have a big platform year?
2024-25
When last season started, things were looking up for Matheson. He was the number one defenceman on the top pairing and, despite the ire of a lot of the fans, was the blueliner on the top power play unit as Lane Hutson was eased into his first professional season. Even though he only scored once in the first quarter of the year, with a dozen assists, he looked to be on his way to another 50-point year, suggesting that his 62-point effort might not have been a one-off.
Alas, that wound up being short-lived. Matheson managed just 15 points between quarters two and three, losing his top spot on the man advantage along the way. After notching seven points with the man advantage in the first two months of the year, he had just three power play points the rest of the season. That would be the byproduct of not playing on the top wave and the second unit largely struggling throughout the year.
Unfortunately, things got even worse offensively for Matheson down the stretch. Over the final quarter of the season (21 games), he had just one goal and two assists. On the other hand, his playing time jumped up to nearly 27 minutes a night with Martin St. Louis showing a ton of faith in him at five-on-five and on the penalty kill. He was still an impactful player, just not on the scoresheet.
Oddly enough, Matheson’s lone point in the playoffs came on the second wave of the man advantage but otherwise, how he finished the year applies here. Big minutes – especially defensively – with not a lot to show for it on the scoresheet. All in all, it was a year that the coaches were probably quite pleased with but a 50% drop in production stings after how things went the year before.
Regular Season Stats: 80 GP, 6-25-31, -6, 51 PIMS, 1 PPG, 1 GWG, 149 shots, 25:05 ATOI
Playoff Stats: 5 GP, 0-1-1, -1, 2 PIMS, 0 PPG, 0 GWG, 11 shots, 24:50 ATOI
5-Year Averages
(2020-21’s numbers have been extrapolated to an 82-game season.)
GP: 70
Goals: 9
Assists: 27
Points: 36
+/-: E
PIMS: 43
PPG: 1
GWG: 2
Shots: 146
2025-26 Role
First, the good news. Matheson is still likely to be trusted more at five-on-five than anyone else on the back end, at least to start. Yes, his mistakes have a tendency to be more glaring but he’s a decent enough defender and a strong puck-mover, elements that appeal to the coaches. Not much should change on that front.
Who Matheson plays with is a little harder to predict. They could try him with Kaiden Guhle, a pairing that had its ups and downs last season. They could put him and Noah Dobson together, allowing the Guhle-Hutson duo that played a lot together down the stretch to stay intact. Or, if they want Guhle and Dobson together (a stylistic match), Matheson and Hutson could make for an offensive-minded top pairing.
Now for the bad news. Hutson shouldn’t be getting pulled off the top power play unit and Dobson wasn’t acquired and signed to the richest contract given to a skater in franchise history to not play on the power play. If they stick with four forwards and one blueliner on each unit, Matheson is going to be the odd man out. I could see them experimenting with two defenders on the second wave, going with more of a traditional look but after seeing his power play output drop from 28 points to 10 last season, another drop seems quite probable as things stand as his ice time in that situation is almost certainly taking a dip.
On the penalty kill, Matheson and David Savard were used heavily last season and with Savard gone, it’s fair to think they’ll be leaning on him even more this year. Montreal experimented with playing him the full two minutes at times last season and it wouldn’t shock me to see them try that even more this year. Hutson shouldn’t be on there, Dobson typically doesn’t kill penalties much, and neither Jayden Struble nor Arber Xhekaj appear to be trusted to play on the penalty kill so Matheson is going to get a lot of usage here.
Projected Stats
Just two years ago, Matheson was the type of pickup that might have helped win a pool, basically in all formats. And if you’re like me and like to stick with the players that won you a title, there will be a temptation to take Matheson. However, if you’ve been following along, Montreal’s depth chart doesn’t seem to lend itself toward a big year offensively for the blueliner.
Is he heading for another 50% drop in points? Probably not, as long as he stays healthy. But if you have Hutson being among the top point-getters for blueliners and Dobson somewhere around the 50-point range as well, that’s not going to leave a lot for Matheson (or anyone else, really), especially with the Habs not projected to be among the NHL’s top-scoring teams.
The good news is that even if his point total slips a bit, he still has some extra value for leagues that have some extra scoring categories. He’s well above-average in terms of shots on goal (and shot attempts; he barely got 40% of those on net last season) and he picks up a lot of blocked shots. I could see the shots dipping a bit but with an expectation of bigger penalty killing usage, the blocks could be going up as well. He was 13th league-wide in that department last season; the top ten might be doable this time.
For 12 or 14-team leagues, Matheson feels like someone who probably shouldn’t be rostered. In deeper pools, he’s still worth a flyer as a fifth or sixth option with a bit of upside if Hutson or Dobson go down for any extended period of time. That’s a far cry from where he was just two seasons ago in fantasy hockey but while he may not be a key piece in those leagues, he’ll be a key piece for the Habs for sure.
GP: 80
Goals: 7
Assists: 22
Points: 29
+/-: -8
PIMS: 48
PPG: 0
GWG: 1
Shots: 145