Fantasy Focus: Alex Newhook
Alex Newhook’s first year with Montreal was somewhat of a mixed bag with some good performances, some bad ones, and some time on IR. Nonetheless, it’s reasonable to expect that the best is still to come from him.
2023-24
Newhook had quite the Montreal debut with a pair of goals against Toronto but was relatively quiet after that, scoring just once in the next month. Along the way, they dabbled with playing him down the middle for a few games but he struggled and was quickly moved back to the wing, only taking the odd strong-side draw.
Newhook had a good stretch in mid-November and it looked like he was starting to turn the corner. Unfortunately, as was the case for many Habs last season, he then suffered a long-term injury as an ankle issue felled him for 27 games, keeping him out of the lineup until early February. By then, the Habs were well out of playoff contention once again.
Normally, I hesitate to glean too much from the stretch run when there isn’t much at stake. But Newhook’s performance over the final couple of months is still somewhat relevant given that it was his first year with a new team and the fact he had some success both on the wing and down the middle when Sean Monahan was traded.
Over the final 32 games of the season, Newhook picked up 24 points while winning a respectable 49% of his faceoffs. He finished up on a high note, averaging just shy of a point-per-game over his final 13 outings, a lot of that time coming with veterans Brendan Gallagher and Joel Armia on his wings. That was an odd combo but it worked while allowing Gallagher and Armia to finish strong as well.
Stats: 55 GP, 15-19-34, -11, 18 PIMS, 2 PPG, 2 GWG, 85 shots, 16:56 ATOI
3 Year Averages
(Since Newhook played just six games late in 2020-21, it’s not really relevant for full-season averages.)
GP: 69
Goals: 14
Assists: 18
Points: 32
+/-: E
PIMS: 17
PPG: 2
GWG: 3
Shots: 105
2024-25 Role
Some players have a role that is pretty easy to predict heading into training camp. Newhook is not one of those. Even his position is in some flux.
The return of Kirby Dach gives the Habs four full-time middlemen excluding Newhook as Nick Suzuki, Christian Dvorak, and Jake Evans are also in the fold. At first glance, that would seemingly make Newhook the odd one out. But if they want to keep him down the middle, it might make more sense to move Dvorak or Evans over, knowing those two aren’t likely part of the long-term plans in Montreal.
With that in mind, Newhook could centre the third line with Dach anchoring the second. Alternatively, if Newhook goes back to the wing, he could line up on the second line alongside Dach or on the third line in an effort to give the Habs a third line capable of producing on somewhat of a regular basis. Speculatively, I could see Newhook being one of those players who moves around the lineup a lot, seeing time in each of those spots.
As for special teams, Newhook averaged just over three minutes a night on the power play last season. With Dach returning, I could see that coming down with him taking Newhook’s spot on the top unit. Penalty killing, meanwhile, probably isn’t in the cards once again.
Projected Stats
On the one hand, there are two elements that suggest there could be a bit of a dip in Newhook’s performance. The first is the 17.6 shooting percentage he put up last season which is well above the league average and is in that unsustainable territory. His first two years were around the 12% mark and it wouldn’t be surprising to see his percentage in 2024-25 be closer to that. The other is that if the team can stay healthy, I expect we might see a small drop in Newhook’s ice time, particularly with the power play.
Having said that, I think Newhook can still beat his output from last season simply by staying healthy, even if the per-game rates go down. He doesn’t have a significant track record of injuries so there’s no reason to think he can play much closer to a full 82 games, if not 82 games entirely. The reality is that there will be injuries so I expect he will still see some PP1 time and somewhat regular time on the second line; he should have more games there than on the third.
From a fantasy perspective, Newhook probably isn’t coming off the board in most standard leagues unless you’re going deeper on roster size or number of teams. For perspective, he’s probably not in the top 250 or 300. I like him more as a plug-and-play piece depending on his spot on the depth chart. Consider him when he’s in the top six or on the top power play unit but I’d shy away from drafting him in most formats unless you’re in a deep league. There will come a time when Newhook is in that top 250-300 but it might be a year or two away.
GP: 79
Goals: 15
Assists: 26
Points: 41
+/-: -8
PIMS: 26
PPG: 2
GWG: 2
Shots: 116