Fantasy Focus: Mike Matheson
Mike Matheson’s second season with the Canadiens saw him stay healthy and as a result, he had a career year. Could another 60-point showing be in the cards or is he a candidate to take a step back?
2023-24
With the Habs basically returning the same defence corps that they ran with the year before, Matheson remained entrenched as Montreal’s top defender, for better and for worse. He got off to a solid start in the first quarter of the season with 15 points in 20 games but slowed down a bit in the second quarter, scoring just once in 21 contests. While he was still collecting the assists, it’s fair to say they were counting on more from him in the goal department.
It was more of the same in the third quarter of the season as he scored just twice. Nearly half of Matheson’s points came on the power play but this was the period of the year when things started to get ugly defensively. It wasn’t all on him but as the player logging the most ice time (more than 26 minutes in this segment), he had a big share of mistakes that happened to land in the back of the net.
The final quarter of the campaign was arguably Matheson’s best. Offensively, he had his highest point-per-game average of the season (0.90) while mixing in a season-high seven-game point streak along the way. Personally, perhaps more impressive was that he showed no signs of slowing down despite the exceptionally high ice time while playing in all 82 games for the first time in his career.
In his first season with the Canadiens, Matheson showed a lot of promise but it was hard to expect him to keep up his impressive production over a full year. As it turned out, he did exactly that and more.
Stats: 82 GP, 11-51-62, -24, 58 PIMS, 5 PPG, 0 GWG, 187 shots, 25:33 ATOI
5 Year Averages
(Stats for 2020-21 and 2021-22 are extrapolated to an 82-game rate.)
GP: 68
Goals: 9
Assists: 26
Points: 35
+/-: +1
PIMS: 36
PPG: 1
GWG: 2
Shots: 141
2024-25 Role
There will come a time when Matheson isn’t Montreal’s undisputed number one defenceman. I’d go as far as saying that time is relatively soon in the grand scheme of things. But I don’t expect that to be the case this coming season, or at least for most of it.
At five-on-five, he should be on the left side of the top pairing once again. With just two right-shot options on the roster, Kaiden Guhle might have to move over, meaning that last year’s top pairing would remain intact. David Savard is the other partner option for Matheson but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him on the second pairing so the Matheson-Guhle duo is the likeliest one to start the year.
The power play is where things get a bit more interesting. If Lane Hutson is on the roster, it’s possible that he’d eventually get the spot on the top unit. Not right away as many fans would seemingly want but once he has his feet wet. If that’s the case, Matheson would anchor the second wave, giving them a boost after cycling through a bunch of options who frankly weren’t suited to run an NHL power play last season. But if Hutson starts in Laval, then Matheson’s spot on the top unit is secure.
Personally, I’m not convinced Matheson should be logging significant minutes on the penalty kill. It’s not his strong spot. On the other hand, on a defensive group bereft of viable and proven options shorthanded, it’s a safe bet that he will be getting a lot of ice time in that situation. Ideally, someone like Guhle eventually pushes him off the top pair but that probably won’t happen right away. And if Savard is ultimately traded at some point, Matheson will be back to top minutes there anyway even if Guhle passes him briefly.
Projected Stats
Last year, I forecasted Matheson’s point-per-game rate dropping but still landing on a career-high for total points. I got that half right. Now, I’m going to double down on the wrong part; his point-per-game rate is going to drop.
In particular, I think the power play points are going to come down. Matheson had 28 power play points last season. For perspective, that’s more points with the man advantage than he had in the rest of his career combined. That’s one of those ‘hard to repeat’ things. So too is the fact he had a hand in 64% of Montreal’s power play goals. That’s generally what a top forward gets, not so much a blueliner. Then there’s the possibility of Hutson siphoning off some minutes off the top wave from Matheson.
At even strength, I don’t necessarily see much changing there. If Montreal’s top line can play like they did in the second half of last season (with Matheson often with that group), he could produce at a similar rate in that situation. But again, a drop in power play points will bring the full-season total down and I have some concerns he’ll be able to play a full year for the second season in a row given the heavy workload he carries.
Having said that, this is still a pretty valuable player in a fantasy league. While it wouldn’t be realistic to expect him to play at a 62-point pace again, something around the 50-point range (in terms of pace) should be doable even if his prime power play minutes go down. Only 20 players hit the 50-point mark last season (and only a handful of others came in at that pace) so this is still a good group to be in.
Accordingly, if you’re in a points-based league, Matheson should be in the top 30 going off the board. If you’re in a league where hits or plus/minus count, drop him a few pegs but if shots on goal matter, move him up a bit as he was 11th in the NHL in that category last season. Even with a points drop, his shot rate should still be among the higher-end options.
GP: 77
Goals: 9
Assists: 43
Points: 52
+/-: -19
PIMS: 52
PPG: 3
GWG: 1
Shots: 183