What's at stake as Yemen's Huthis renew Red Sea shipping attacks?

The Iran-backed rebels allege that the two vessels they attacked earlier this week -- the Magic Seas and the Eternity C -- were linked to trade with Israel.

But their renewed campaign comes at a pivotal moment when Washington and Tehran are weighing talks following a devastating 12-day Iran-Israel war, while Hamas and Israel are holding truce negotiations in Qatar.

What's at stake for the rebels and why have they decided to resume attacks after a gap of more than six months?
Why now?
The rebels, who have also mounted direct attacks on Israel, have launched more than 100 attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since November 2023, according to the Joint Maritime Information Centre run by Western navies.

They paused their attacks during a short-lived Gaza truce earlier this year before renewing them last weekend.

The rebels say their aim is to support Palestinians in Gaza. Their political leader, Mahdi al-Mashat, told Hamas negotiators in Doha to "negotiate with your heads held high, for we are with you and all the resources of our people will support you" until the war ends.

But analysts say their resumption of attacks goes beyond support for Gaza.

It comes shortly after Iran fought a devastating war with Israel without support from its allies in the so-called "axis of resistance", which also includes Hamas and Lebanon's Hezbollah.

"This is a reminder from the Revolutionary Guard, through its most important ally (the Huthis), that what was withheld in the previous round (of fighting), if repeated, can be activated," said the chairperson of the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies, Maged al-Madhaji.

Noam Raydan, who tracks maritime attacks for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said the Huthis had continued to monitor ship movements throughout the pause in attacks.

"They’ve ensured that their presence is always felt", she said.
What are they hoping to achieve?
Although Iran is their main backer, the Huthis are not just a Tehran proxy: they have ambitions of their own and dreams of a broader regional role.

Farea Al-Muslimi, a research fellow at British think tank Chatham House, described the attacks as a "power move" that enabled the Huthis to "project more power regionally and internationally".

Israel's wars in Gaza and Lebanon have severely weakened both Hamas and Hezbollah, leaving the Huthis as the only member of the "axis of resistance" to emerge relatively unscathed.

The rebels have endured repeated air strikes by Israel in response to their drone and missile attacks.

Washington too carried out an intensive bombing campaign earlier this year before agreeing to cease fire in May in return for an end to Huthi attacks on international shipping.

"While the US campaign badly hit the Huthis' communication and some military capabilities, they still have huge stock and rebuilt their communications quickly," said Muslimi, adding that their maritime power "has been booming".

He said that in comparison with their attacks on Israel, which had had only limited success, the Huthis' attacks on shipping had proved "a very efficient way to make the entire West, and most of the east, bleed."
What are the risks?
The Huthis' campaign has caused major disruption to the vital shipping lane through the Bab al-Mandeb strait and the Red Sea that normally carries about 12 percent of global trade.

With insurance premiums skyrocketing, many shipping firms have opted to make the time-consuming detour around the southern tip of Africa instead.

"Transit via the Bab al-Mandeb strait remains low compared to 2023 – a drop by over 50 percent," Raydan told AFP.

She said the rebels had taken advantage of a decreased naval presence in the area to mount their attacks.

"The Huthis appear to have more freedom now to assault freedom of navigation," she said.

The future of a fragile ceasefire with the United States meant to ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea is now uncertain.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar called for action to stop further Huthi attacks.

"If the Huthis are not confronted, this problem will only grow," he warned.