Game Breakers

In recent weeks, Arsenal have won 5-1 away at Sporting, 5-2 away at West Ham and on Wednesday they beat Monaco 3-0, producing an XG of 2.2 (the third goal does not count towards the XG total since it was an own goal). So it feels strange to be writing about concerns around Arsenal’s attack. But the concern is entirely justified.

Because what we are seeing this season so far is very much what we saw last season. When Arsenal score first or when they really hit their stride, they are capable of running up big scores against either poor teams (cough, West Ham, cough) or when early pressure tells. Arteta’s team usually starts games well but they really rely on that early pressure counting.

91 Premier League goals scored last season doesn’t seem to illustrate a team missing something in attack but there are two facts I have repeated in these columns and on podcasts ad nauseam since June. Arsenal failed to score in five Premier League games last season. They also failed to score away from home in four consecutive Champions League away games.

Failing to score in four Champions League away matches before breaking the dam open with a five goal salvo in Lisbon is actually very illustrative. It means they averaged a goal per game away from home in the competition in 2024 but, clearly, that statistic masks some wrinkles just as last season’s 91 league goal haul did.

Essentially, what we can all see is that Arsenal lacks another game breaker. They have one in Bukayo Saka. They have another in Nicolas Jover. Arteta knows this. We can see that because, stand by for the second most repeated fact to emanate from my mouth / keyboard this season, the first thing they tried to do in the summer was sign Benjamin Sesko from RB Leipzig.

The squad has two slightly imperfect options at centre-forward, though they currently inhabit slightly different ends of the ‘imperfect’ spectrum. Kai Havertz is an elite player and he is of huge importance to the way that Arsenal play. But he is not an elite goal scorer nor an individual who can win a game with a moment of brilliance.

Then there is Gabriel Jesus. It is fair to say the team has moved away from him and Jesus is always a character who has lived a little too much inside his own head to be a killer in the penalty area. In Brazil, there is a meme about him always looking as though he is on the verge of tears and sometimes he plays like that too.

However, when he has started games against Southampton and Monaco recently, he has played reasonably well. He was fine / 6/10 against Southampton. Against Monaco we saw something more akin to the Gabriel Jesus of old. He was busy, engaged, winning the ball high up the pitch, missing presentable chances and he made a good assist. It was the Gabi Jesus set menu.

The problem came when Monaco began to wrestle the pendulum back in the second half and when that happens, Arsenal need Havertz to help relieve pressure. When Arsenal are on top, you would probably want peak Jesus upfront (though we have seen far too little of peak Jesus for the last two years) and when the game is more delicately balanced you probably want Havertz.

I think this explains the interest in Sesko, who combines the physicality of Havertz with the unpredictability and chaos Jesus provides when he is not clad in black eye shadow and gazing at his shoes. I think Arsenal have a similar issue on the left wing, where Gabriel Martinelli and Leandro Trossard operate a kind of job share.

They are very different players and their qualities tend to apply to different game states. The problem is that those game states can be difficult to predict and, as we saw against Monaco, they can shift in game which I think goes some way to explaining why both Martinelli and Trossard blow hot and cold within small timeframes.

Again, Arsenal know this. They tried to sign Mykhailo Mudryk in January 2023 but pivoted to Leo Trossard instead. We can consider that a bullet dodged in hindsight but it shows that Arteta believed the left wing was a position ripe for an upgrade. They pivoted to Trossard in that scenario but given he was 28 when he was signed and the purchase was pretty opportunistic, we can see it was not the long-term plan for the position.

Likewise, the reluctant deadline day signing of Raheem Sterling. The lateness of it suggests Arsenal had their doubts but given the player’s obvious talent and the generous terms of the deal, Arteta felt the attack needed reinforcement enough for him to bash the gamble button.

Sadly, to this point Sterling has showed no signs of restoring his previous standing and he has proved to be a Reiss Nelson replacement in the most literal sense, offering no real upgrade on the scant, often unimportant minutes assigned to Nelson with around the same level of output. Trossard / Martinelli and Jesus are all preferred as options from the bench and Saka isn’t coming off unless the game is done and dusted or he’s had a set of studs down the back of his achilles.

In short, Havertz wasn’t really meant to be a full-time striker, Trossard was a medium term sticking plaster, Sterling was a short term sticking plaster with little to no adhesiveness, Martinelli has not quite developed as we’d hoped and the market is dry for attackers. Manchester City did not replace Julian Alvarez this summer, Liverpool’s attacking signing was a cut price deal for injury ravaged Federico Chiesa who has managed 19 Premier League minutes since signing.

If we look further back, Liverpool’s attempts to replace Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino have yielded mixed results. In Diaz, Nunez and Gakpo they have a selection of hit and miss options, with only Diogo Jota providing undeniable value. Their attack is still hoisted by the significant flagpole of Mo Salah.

While it is true that Arsenal’s right side is a lot more threatening than the left side, I would argue the same is true of Liverpool (Trent and Salah) and even peak Manchester City, who would bunch Mahrez, Bernardo Silva and de Bruyne into that right sided pod. But even a Martinelli / Trossard hybrid on the left and a Havertz / Jesus hybrid upfront would significantly improve this squad and the level of threat it can produce.

It is true that margins have gone against Arsenal this season but it’s also true they need at least one other attacker capable of pushing those margins in their favour. Arsenal consistently play strong, dominant football and push opponents back. Even against Monaco, a top eight side in the Champions League, with an 18-year-old at left-back, a midfielder at right-back and a broken striker, Arsenal wiped the floor with Monaco. But they weren’t clinical enough.

The market is dry but having settled on some short term options, Arsenal are going to have to find an oasis in the desert somewhere. On the days when the opposition score from their first shot, or the referee conjures up an absurd red card, Arsenal need another solution, another game breaker other than Saka and setpieces to win games.

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