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U.S. political ad market projected to reach record $16 billion in 2024
U.S. political advertising spend.
Annually; 2016-2023, 2024-2028 projected
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The advertising dollars spent on U.S. elections and advocacy issues will grow to roughly $16 billion next year, up 31.2% compared to the last presidential election in 2020, according to a new forecast.
Why it matters:
The U.S. political ad market has gotten so big that next year it’s expected to become the 10th largest ad market in the world, surpassing all of Australia.
Driving the news:
New projections from GroupM, one of the world's largest paid advertising agencies, suggest that political ad revenue will reach $15.9 billion in 2024, or $17.1 billion including direct mail.
• A majority of political advertising spend in the U.S. goes to local broadcast TV, but an increasing amount is moving toward digital channels.
• These figures are higher than projections from other firms that estimate political ad spend in the U.S. will total around $10 billion in 2024.
• GroupM's figures include a wider array of political placements across different channels, such as digital out-of-home billboard signs. Its numbers also include issue advertising spend from political action committees and advocacy groups.
What to watch:
Artificial intelligence is becoming a much bigger part of political advertising in the U.S., prompting concerns from regulators about deception and disclosures.
• The Federal Election Commission (FEC) in August opened up a public debate over whether and how campaigns should be allowed to use artificial intelligence (AI).
• Broadly speaking, in countries around the world that enforce stricter regulations around political ads, such as many European countries, the growth of political advertising is slower than in countries with fewer rules, such as India, Mexico, and the Philippines, per GroupM.
Zoom in:
Fueling the growth in political ads this cycle is the presidential race, which has so far seen record primary spend on the Republican side.
• More than $100 million was spent through September on Republican primary races, faster than any previous cycle, per political AdImpact, an advertising intelligence firm.
Zoom out:
The overturning of campaign finance restrictions in 2010 led to unprecedented investment in U.S. elections. New digital ad formats created more opportunities for campaigns to spend that money on paid marketing.
• One of the fastest-growing segments is Connected TV (CTV) advertising, or video ads that run on digital TV sets connected to the internet. They offer campaigns the ability to target their ads more narrowly to voters with certain interests, instead of just age and gender demographics.
• The phaseout of internet tracking cookies is forcing campaigns to rely more heavily on digital formats outside of traditional digital banner ads, such as streaming, keyword searches, and podcasts.
Be smart:
Historically, campaigns were limited to advertising opportunities on heavily regulated mediums with limited inventory, such as television, radio and print.
• Today, the internet offers infinite inventory for campaigns to place ads with few regulations. That has also contributed to the historic growth of political ad spend in the U.S.
The big picture:
The onslaught of political ads in the U.S. has widespread implications for industries outside of politics.
• Advertisers have been forced to adjust their marketing strategies during election years to avoid inventory competition on local broadcasts.
• Political ads tend to falsely inflate growth rates for traditional media channels like newspapers and television, helping them to stay afloat longer than they otherwise would.
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Political ads boost local TV
Local TV ad revenue
2005-2025
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Local TV stations are experiencing an advertising windfall this election cycle, thanks to a record amount of U.S. political ad spend.
Why it matters:
Despite an influx of new ways to reach voters online, local broadcast is still the top place campaigns spend their ad dollars, due to its effectiveness for voter persuasion and buying efficiency.
• While streaming ads make it easier for campaigns to target niche voting demographics, they often lack the scale necessary to persuade large amounts of voters in a particular region.
• Regulations around local broadcast ads meant to prevent bias also benefit campaigns, allowing them to unlock cheaper rates and protecting their ads from being blocked because of inaccuracies or misinformation.
State of play:
Local TV broadcast stations have historically benefited in even-numbered years from huge upticks in ad spending around congressional elections. Every four years, that number balloons even higher with the presidential election.
• For example, a whopping $2 billion was spent on local political ads in 2020, followed by just $208 million in 2021 and then $1.9 billion in 2022.
By the numbers:
This year, around $11.7 billion in political ad dollars are expected to be spent locally, according to BIA Advisory Services, up 21.3% from 2020. Political ads will make up roughly 6.7% of the total local ad market ($173.7 billion).
• Last presidential cycle, around 7% of all local advertising ($138.2 billion) was spent on local political ads, or around $9.6 billion.
• Local broadcast stations are also expected to bring in a record amount ($2.2 billion) in "TV digital" political advertising this year, or advertising sold by local broadcast stations on their digital properties, like their websites or owned and operated streaming apps.
How we got here:
The 2010 overturning of campaign finance restrictions led to unprecedented investment in U.S. elections. The pandemic pushed more of those dollars into paid advertising, as campaigns pulled back their ground operations.
• This year, several highly competitive congressional races, combined with new fundraising energy around a close presidential election and a surge in state ballot measures, have driven huge ad opportunities for local broadcasters.
• While campaigns are experimenting more than ever with new mediums, like connected TV (CTV) ads on streaming, more video ad dollars are still flowing to local broadcast than any other medium, for now.
• BIA estimates more than $2.6 billion will be spent on CTV ads this cycle, and because CTV is growing faster than any other medium, more political ad dollars are expected to move into the category in the coming years.
The big picture:
One of the reasons local broadcast ads are still so competitive is because there's a finite amount of inventory.
• As such, ad experts don't anticipate the rise of CTV ads to eat at the share of local political broadcast ad dollars anytime soon. Instead, CTV will grow as a complement to local broadcast ads as inventory is squeezed
What they're saying:
Local broadcast executives are touting this year's election to investors as record breaking.
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E.W. Scripps,
one of the largest owners of local broadcast stations in the country, said it believes its 2024 local political advertising revenue will reach record levels, thanks to Senate races in Montana and Ohio, as well as controversial ballot issues in several states.
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Nexstar
saw political advertising double in the second quarter compared to the same three-month period in 2020. In its latest earnings call, Michael Biard, Nexstar president and COO, noted that the shift from Biden to Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket "kept the existing Biden-Harris fundraising in place, seemingly galvanizing both parties and driving meaningful incremental fundraising that ultimately will flow back into political advertising."
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Tegna
then-president Dave Lougee said in the firm's August earnings call that fundraising was suppressed when Biden remained in the race, but now with Harris at the top of the ticket, "it's going to keep the enthusiasm in all the Senate races and the fundraising there ... very, very strong."
What to watch:
Outside of political advertising, local broadcast faces pressure from digital alternatives, but there are some bright spots.
• Changes to local broadcast ownership rules by the Trump administration gave way to a record level of local broadcast consolidation, which has helped local networks reduce costs through synergies.
• More sports rights are moving out from regional cable networks and into local broadcast stations, boosting viewership.
• New technologies are also expected to make broadcast viewing more sophisticated, which executives believe will help local stations grow to become less reliant on cyclical political advertising.
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Download AdImpact’s 2024 Political Spending Projections Report
AdImpact projects the 2023-2024 election cycle will be the most expensive of all time, totaling $10.2B in political expenditures across broadcast, cable, radio, satellite, digital, and CTV. This would represent a 13% increase over the previous record of $9.02B set during the 2019-2020 election cycle. Through August 2023 we have seen $652M and are pacing 75% ahead of 2019 and 16% ahead of 2021. The off-year of an election cycle traditionally receives between 10-14% of total spending for the two-year cycle.
Presidential spending is projected to receive $2.7B in political ad spending this cycle. The contested Republican primary coupled with a concentration on seven key general battleground states will drive spending in the category. Senate spending, projected at $2.1B, and House spending, projected at $1.7B, will be driven by razor-thin margins in both chambers as both parties vie for control of Congress. Gubernational spending is expected to see a predictable drop-off compared to the 2021-2022 election cycle at $400M as there are only 14 seats up for re-election. The area projected to see the most spending on political advertising is what we call “Downballot.” This category consists of all political spending that is not Presidential, House, Senate, or Gubernatorial and is expected to receive $3.3B.
Download our full report to learn more about projected political spending in the 2023-2024 election cycle!
Background on the 2024 Presidential Election Cycle
One of the major drivers of spending in the 2023-2024 election cycle is the return of a Presidential election to the top of the ticket. The Presidential race is already off to record pace with Republican primary spending surpassing $100M by early September, faster than any previous cycle. The 2020 Democratic primary did not surpass $100M until October 2019 and the 2016 Republican primary did not surpass $100M until December 2015. With more than 120 days until the Iowa Caucuses, the well-funded and crowded field is expected to continue driving spending. We expect to see similar levels of spending in the general to the 2020 Presidential general as current polls indicate a rematch between President Biden and former President Trump could be on the horizon. General spending will be concentrated in seven key swing states: Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, and Wisconsin.
The competitive nature of the House and Senate maps will be a major factor in overall Congressional spending during the 2023-2024 cycle. Court-ordered redistricting has shifted the landscape of the House map and provided some races with the potential to be exceptionally more expensive than they have been historically. Previously safe Republican seats are now viewed as potential Democratic pickup opportunities, which has tightened the race for the House as they only need to flip 6 seats. The possibility of Democrats taking control is becoming more realistic outcome. An unfavorable Senate map for Democrats will also play a major role in political advertising spending. 23 seats held by Democrats are up for election compared to just 11 by Republicans. Several Democratic incumbents are running in more conservative states, such as Joe Manchin in West Virginia, Jon Tester in Montana, and Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Democratic Senate candidates will likely be on the defensive and will likely have to spend heavily to protect their slight majority. Gubernatorial elections are expected to receive much less focus this cycle, as only 14 seats are up this cycle compared to 38 in the 2021-2022 cycle.
Through the end of August 2023, the Downballot category has already seen nearly $440M in spending, pacing ahead of 2021’s 415M in 2019’s 238M over the same period. Abortion-related ballot measures will play a major role in Downballot spending this cycle. During the 2022 cycle, six states had abortion-related measures on the ballot with Michigan’s receiving nearly $50M in spending and Kanas’ seeing almost $14M Three states have already placed abortion-related measures on the ballot this Cycle: Ohio, New York, and Maryland. Ohio’s is the only measure that will be voted on this November and has seen more than $33M through the end of August. Seven states have proposals for an abortion-related measure to be placed on the ballot in 2024: Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, and South Dakota. If all the proposals make it to the ballot, Downballot spending could see a spike around this issue.
Political Media Advertising Background
Broadcast continues to be the dominant media type in political advertising as we project it to see over 50% of total cycle spend at $5.1B. Cable is projected to maintain its position as the media type receiving the second most spending with $1.9B, about 18% of overall spending. Spending on digital platforms such as Facebook and Google are utilized by campaigns and issue groups to reach a more target audience and as a major fundraising tool. From the 2020 Cycle to the 2022 Cycle, we saw a $700M drop-off in digital spending, from $1.7B to $1B with the absence of a President race at the top of the ticket. While we do not expect digital spending to return to 2020 levels, we do project to grow by nearly $100M during the 2024 Cycle.
To date in 2023, we have seen approximately $100M spent on Connected Television (CTV), or nearly 13% of the overall political spending landscape. We project CTV will total over $1.3B during the 2024 Cycle, a nearly $250M increase over the 2022 Cycle. This is a slight increase in share as CTV made up 12% of total spending during the 2022 Cycle. As voters continue to “cut the cord” and shift away from traditional forms of media, reaching them regardless of consumption habits has become a main goal of advertisers. We have seen rapid adoption of CTV advertising in the political advertising space and expect this category to continue to grow over the upcoming political cycles.
Political Spending Projections Methodology
We set out to build our projections from the ground up. Rather than dividing the topline numbers from previous years, we built a model to project spending at the individual race level and then rolled these numbers up to reach our topline conclusions. Spending levels in a race correlate strongly with the competitiveness of a seat, so we based our 2024 estimates on each seat’s previous spending levels and Cook Political Report’s race ratings (Lean D, Toss Up, Lean R etc.).
Historic spending levels come from our comprehensive database of political media expenditures. Our database includes $25B of spending, more than 15,000 elections, and 20 million ad airings. This baseline number is then adjusted by factors such as the price of a media market and candidate cash-on-hand reports. On average, a race in a very expensive market like Los Angeles, CA will see far more spending than a race in a cheaper market, such as Norfolk, VA, since it costs significantly more to reach the same relative audience levels.
These projections will also likely change as the landscape changes. Unexpected retirements, billionaire self-funders, strong fundraising, redistricting, and changes in the political winds can, and will, cause the spending landscape to shift. We will periodically update these projections as we see the political spending environment unfold.
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