Kazakhstan factors a new oil price into the budget – what happened

Tengrinews.kz — In Kazakhstan's new budget, which accounts for oil revenues, the forecast price of oil has been raised by $10 compared to last year. Read the Tengrinews.kz report to find out what prompted this change, how price expectations have shifted, and what has happened in the oil sector over the past year.
$70 per barrel: The new budget figures
In the draft republican budget for 2027-2029, the price of oil is set at $70 per barrel. This is $10 higher than the figure used a year ago when planning the 2026-2028 budget.
The Ministry of Finance explained that the budget calculation was based on forecasts from international organizations.

"In determining the estimated oil price for 2027–2029, we considered the consensus forecast of international financial institutions, as well as the need to form the budget on a conservative and sustainable basis. Based on the analysis, the consensus forecast for the oil price in 2027 settled at approximately $70.3 per barrel. Consequently, a price of $70 per barrel was adopted for budget calculations in the baseline scenario of socio-economic development," the Ministry of Finance explained.

But what could have influenced the international organizations' oil price forecasts? Recent developments in the oil market likely played a significant role.
Here is a brief overview of what happened.
The Iran–US War: How the oil market survived the shock
At the beginning of 2026, analysts predicted an oil glut and a price of $60 per barrel. This price was initially factored into Kazakhstan's three-year budget.
However, a global oil shock began in late February. On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched large-scale airstrikes on Iranian territory. In the US, the operation was named "Epic Fury", and in Israel, "Roaring Lion".
Photo: US Navy
On the same day, Iran launched a retaliatory attack on Israel and US bases in Bahrain, the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait. Thus, a local geopolitical crisis in the Middle East escalated into a full-scale war that continues to this day.

In response to the airstrikes, Iran also completely closed the Strait of Hormuz — a key global artery through which about 20 percent of all oil supplies (approximately 20 million barrels per day) pass. This triggered the largest supply shock in history.
Global supplies instantly dropped by 10–14 million barrels per day. By March, the price of oil exceeded $100, and in April, following the imposition of a full naval blockade of Iranian ports by the US, Brent crude soared to $130 per barrel. At the same time, prices reacted sharply to reports of potential negotiations, their subsequent failures, and other factors, causing them to fluctuate wildly.
Nations faced severe disruptions in global energy logistics.
Parallel efforts were made to stabilize the market. Prices briefly declined after International Energy Agency member countries decided to release about 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves. An additional factor was the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran on June 17.
On the back of this news, Brent futures briefly dipped to $70 per barrel in early July. Overall, these combined efforts were aimed at cooling the overheated oil market and temporarily bringing prices down.
However, the fragile truce collapsed, and escalation resumed on July 7. By late August and early September, following new attacks on tankers and Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure, oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to critical levels — about 2 million barrels per day — leading to a new price spike.
Oil above $100: What is happening right now
Oil prices are rising once again. The price of Brent has climbed above $100 per barrel for the first time since July amid a fresh flare-up in the conflict between the US and Iran.
As of September 9, Brent November futures rose by 2.2 percent to $100.08 per barrel. US WTI crude rose by 1.87 percent to $94.77.
Oil price data for September 9. Screenshot from ice.com
Chronicle of attacks on the CPC
The series of attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) — the primary export route for Kazakh oil — has continued for a second year, creating ongoing transportation challenges.
Note:The Caspian Pipeline Consortium brings together major fuel and energy enterprises from Russia, the United States, Kazakhstan, and several Western European countries. Specifically, CPC facilitates the transportation of oil from three major Kazakhstani fields: Tengiz, Kashagan, and Karachaganak. Today, CPC serves as the primary export route for Kazakhstani oil, transporting at least 60 million tons annually, or approximately 80 percent of the country's total export volume.
2025
Attacks on CPC infrastructure in Russia began in February, with the Kropotkinskaya pumping station being hit; this was followed by attacks on facilities in the Krasnodar Krai.
Subsequently, in March, Kazakhstan reduced oil production in accordance with OPEC+ requirements.
Note:OPEC+ is an expanded alliance of oil-producing nations established in 2016 to jointly manage oil production volumes and maintain price stability in the global market. It comprises 22 states: 12 OPEC member countries (led by Saudi Arabia) and 10 independent partner countries (including Kazakhstan, Russia, Mexico, Azerbaijan, Oman, and others). The coalition members regularly agree on cutting or increasing "black gold" output, collectively controlling approximately 40 percent of global oil production.
Following a series of strikes in late March, the consortium temporarily decommissioned two of its three single-point mooring units. Attacks recurred throughout the year in June, September, and November—resulting in one loading facility being destroyed, while Kazakhstan began rerouting oil to alternative channels.
2026
In January, another attack led to lower exports and the loss of approximately 3.8 million tons of oil. In March, the tanker Maran Homer was attacked in the Black Sea.
In April, the government of Kazakhstan reported a sharp decline in production — down to 80.2 percent of last year's levels. Attacks on tankers continued through the summer: in July, the consortium briefly suspended shipments. Yet another strike occurred on September 8.
As a result, Kazakhstan lowered its oil production target for 2026 from 98 million to 96 million tons.
Read more on why our country is so dependent on the CPC pipeline – at the link.
Why the UAE left OPEC+
Back on April 28, the UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026. Emirati authorities explained the decision by citing plans to develop their oil industry, increase production, and attract investment. Following the exit, the UAE stated its intention to independently ramp up output based on demand and market conditions.
Abu Dhabi also pointed to regional instability and the expected growth in global energy demand.
Expert Askar Ismailov commented that while changes resulting from the UAE's exit will be noticeable in the near term, there will be no severe blow to the market. However, the influence of OPEC+ risks weakening over time.
OPEC+ increases production: the decision for Kazakhstan
In early May 2026, Kazakhstan and six other OPEC+ countries agreed to increase oil production. Starting in September, the total production volume of these countries will grow by 188,000 barrels per day.
For Kazakhstan, the September quota will be 1.628 million barrels per day.
Projected revenue for our country
In 2027, Kazakhstan expects to receive 3.78 trillion tenge from the oil sector into the National Fund. Calculations were made based on three key indicators: a production volume of 96 million tons of oil, a price of $70 per barrel, and an exchange rate of 480 tenge per dollar.
The largest contributions to the National Fund are expected in the form of:

corporate income tax – 30.4 percent;
Kazakhstan's share under production sharing agreements – 29.6 percent;
Mineral Extraction Tax – 24 percent;
rent tax – 10.5 percent.

Why this matters for Kazakhstan
Oil and gas industry expert Askar Ismailov noted that oil prices directly impact budget revenues, the status of the National Fund, and the tenge exchange rate. Consequently, sharp fluctuations in the oil market create additional risks for Kazakhstan's economy, potentially affecting inflation, investment, and financial markets.
Furthermore, Kazakhstan's budget for coming years is based on oil price per barrel and tenge-to-dollar exchange rate forecasts. These indicators determine calculations for export revenues, social payments, and government spending.