Why Ryan Poles Could Finally Break His Rule And Trade Up In 1st Round
Chicago Bears general manager Ryan Poles has operated with a steady and predictable approach in the NFL draft since taking over in 2022. Part of it is not shifting away from the class’s strengths to chase ghosts. Another is being disciplined and patient in the 1st round. Over the past three drafts, Poles has yet to move up on the first night. His only movement of any kind was in 2023 when he traded down twice. In 2024 and 2025, he stayed put and selected the best player on his board.
It made sense at the time. Chicago was picking in the top 10 every year. They didn’t have to move up since the odds were favorable that they’d land a good player. Based on early returns from Caleb Williams, Darnell Wright, and Rome Odunze, this was a wise decision. Poles won’t have that benefit this year. Chicago is picking 25th overall in the 1st round, the lowest they’ve selected since 2011. However, that isn’t the only reason why Poles might be compelled to move up if the opportunity arises.
The other comes from the nature of this draft class.
Ryan Poles faces long odds of landing a true 1st round talent.
ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller does an annual breakdown of what he calls true 1st round players in a draft class. While 32 names are picked in the round, he identifies the ones who actually belong. Based on his tape evaluations to this point, the 2026 class is weaker at the top than any in recent memory.
“There’s a difference between going in Round 1 and being graded in Round 1, and now that we’re just over two months away from the opening of the 2026 draft on April 23 in Pittsburgh, I have identified the players who I believe are no-brainer Day 1 guys. The average draft class has roughly 15 players who are deemed “first-round talents,” though the number varies by team and scouting department. These special evaluations are reserved for prospects who would be Round 1 selections regardless of the year, and my own guideline is whether a player would have been a first-rounder in each of the past five classes.
I gave only 13 first-round grades in the 2025 class, the lowest number I’ve ever awarded. But the 2026 class actually has fewer at the moment — only 11.”
This should matter to Bears fans. Last year, two of those 13 players Miller graded as a true 1st rounder were Colston Loveland and Luther Burden. The same was true of Williams and Odunze in 2024. The only exception was Wright in 2023. Miller’s assessments have proven pretty reliable. Of those 13 last year, all but two of them didn’t make it out of the top 20. Now the margin for error is even thinner this year.
| True 1st round names | Where they were picked |
| Travis Hunter | 2nd |
| Abdul Carter | 3rd |
| Will Campbell | 4th |
| Mason Graham | 5th |
| Ashton Jeanty | 6th |
| Armand Membou | 7th |
| Kelvin Banks | 9th |
| Colston Loveland | 10th |
| Tyler Warren | 14th |
| Jalon Walker | 15th |
| Jahdae Barron | 20th |
| Luther Burden | 39th |
| Will Johnson | 47th |
Burden and Johnson didn’t fall by accident. One was surrounded by character concerns. The other had serious health issues following him from college. That isn’t likely to help the Bears this year. None of the 11 prospects named by Miller has glaring character or health issues. Put simply, it would be a shock if any of them made it out of the top 20. That is where the decision to move up comes in.
Poles understands that sometimes you can’t rely on the board to help you.
There was a reason he reportedly wanted to move up in the 2nd round last year. The Bears knew Ohio State running back TreyVeon Henderson wasn’t likely to reach their spot at #39. Unfortunately, their calls didn’t produce the desired results. Henderson went one pick ahead of them at #38. It worked out since they landed Burden, but the stakes are considerably higher this year. Chicago just made a strong playoff run. They have the look of a team that is knocking on the door to Super Bowl contention. They need another difference-maker to take on the NFC’s best.
As far as the distance they could climb, there is somewhat of a barometer they can use. The Houston Texans held the 25th pick in the 2017 draft. They traded their 1st rounder in 2018 to the Cleveland Browns for the 12th overall pick, allowing them to select quarterback Deshaun Watson. So if Ryan Poles were willing to give up a future 1st for one of those 11 players, the likeliest area he could reach is probably around #12. That would give them a virtual guarantee of landing one of those names. It would all depend on who they want.
Three players stand out as Bears trade up targets
This is about the process of elimination. We already know the Bears are set at quarterback, wide receiver, and running back. So Fernando Mendoza, Jeremiyah Love, Makai Lemon, and Carnell Tate are not in the discussion. So is tight end Kenyon Sadiq. Linebacker Arvell Reese is possible because of his potential to shift to edge rusher, but it’s beyond unlikely he falls out of the top five. Besides, trading up for a linebacker isn’t something Ryan Poles would do, since it’s not a premium position. So Sonny Styles is also out.
That leaves three players:
- Miami edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr.
- Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey
- Ohio State safety Caleb Downs
Bain and Bailey play a premium position, and the Bears have a desperate need for a dynamic pass rusher. Both are explosive and almost impossible to block in obvious passing situations. As for Downs, Chicago doesn’t have any of their top four safeties under contract. It is likely that either Kevin Byard or Jaquan Brisker won’t return. That means they will need a starter. Downs is widely viewed as one of the best safety prospects to come out of college in years. He would be plug-and-play immediately and could be the best talent to hit that position in Chicago since Mark Carrier over 30 years ago.
If one of those names reaches that #11-13 range this April, don’t be shocked if Poles works the phones to go after them.