Will 'One Battle After Another' ride the anti-ICE protest wave to Best Picture at the Oscars?
The film that's been praised by critics for its timeliness may be benefiting from the news cycle at the right time.
"One Battle After Another," Paul Thomas Anderson's politically-charged thriller, has maintained its frontrunner status for Best Picture at this year's Oscars since the fall. If you read my review, then you'd know I recommended it for those who are able to compartmentalize their personal politics because it's very left-wing.
It's about a group of self-described revolutionaries on the run from a cabal of white nationalist authoritarians. The opening scene literally depicts them freeing illegal migrants from a detention center — not to mention that they also bomb courthouses and offices of anti-abortion lawmakers. One man's revolutionary is another man's domestic terrorist.
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Putting that aside, "OBAA" is a well-made film. Despite its nearly 3-hour running time, it never lags. The performances from the cast led by Leonardo DiCaprio, the score, the editing were top-notch. Would I give it Best Picture? No. 2025 was a weaker year for films overall — I'd vote for "Hamnet" if I was a member of the Academy — nonetheless, a Best Picture win was always feasible.
Now, with all the turmoil that's unfolded in Minnesota, a Best Picture win may already be locked up.
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"OBAA" won the Golden Globe for Best Comedy or Musical (it's neither a comedy nor a musical. Don't even get me started on how films and TV shows are classified at the Golden Globes). It has since received 13 Oscar nominations, more than any other film besides Ryan Coogler's vampire thriller "Sinners," shattering records with its 16 nominations.
But the current political climate will likely propel "OBAA" in the Best Picture race. Liberal Hollywood isn't shy about making a statement. Just look at all the "Be Good" pins worn at the Golden Globes honoring Renee Good and the marathon ICE bashing at the Grammys last week. They'll use "OBAA" as a giant "F you" to Donald Trump and his administration despite the irony that "OBAA" would've been released regardless of whether Trump or Kamala Harris won the 2024 election.
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On top of that, many in the Academy probably feel that Paul Thomas Anderson is finally owed an Oscar. Anderson is now a 14-time nominee and was previously snubbed for films like "Boogie Nights," "Magnolia" and "There Will Be Blood." In other words, he'll get the same treatment as Christopher Nolan did two years ago with his Best Picture winner "Oppenheimer" after going decades without a win.
Between national politics and Academy politics, the wind is surely hitting the back of "OBAA."
Are there chances for there to be an upset? Of course, "Sinners" — surpassing previous record holders "Titanic," "La La Land" and "All About Eve" in total nominations — is clearly adored by the Academy and will likely nab a few trophies in the craft categories. But as we've seen before like last year with "Emilia Pérez," having the most nominations doesn't always translate to a Best Picture win. And the Academy may believe that since 39-year-old Coogler will likely have a long career ahead of him as a writer and director, voters will wait before giving him an Oscar and hand it to 55-year-old Anderson instead.
"Hamnet" may be the darkest of dark horses in this race. It did pull an upset over "Sinners" in winning Best Drama at the Golden Globes, though notably has an entirely different body of voters (mostly foreign press). However, the Academy has increasingly welcomed more and more foreign filmmakers and actors in recent years, which is why we've seen more and more foreign films being nominated for Best Picture. They may rally behind the Shakespeare family drama over the very America-centric "OBAA" and "Sinners." However, perhaps working against "Hamnet" is the fact that its writer/director Chloé Zhao just won two Oscars for her work on the 2021 Best Picture winner "Nomadland."
The only true indicators that will affirm the frontrunner status of "OBAA" between now and the Oscars are how the various guild awards play out in the coming weeks, mainly the Producers Guild Awards, the Directors Guild Awards, the Writers Guild Awards and the Screen Actors Guild Awards (now called the Actor Awards) since many guild voters are also Academy voters. If "OBAA" sweeps those, it will be incredibly likely a Best Picture win will follow. If other films like "Sinners" and "Hamnet" emerge as big winners, that could spice up the race.
With all of that in mind, "OBAA" still has the edge. And since the firestorm over ICE isn't likely to melt away anytime soon, "OBAA" will almost certainly be our next Best Picture winner.