Deep-red Texas flip sparks alarm as data points to looming GOP midterm trouble

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis warned Republicans to take notice after Democrats stunned the GOP by flipping a deep-red Texas state Senate seat, and CNN data analyst Harry Enten said the numbers back up that concern. Union leader Taylor Rehment defeated Trump-endorsed conservative Leigh Wambsganns in a district Trump carried by 17 points in 2024 — only for the Democrat to win it by 14, marking a jaw-dropping 30-plus-point swing. While some Republicans blamed the loss on bad weather, Enten dismissed that excuse, pointing instead to a broader pattern of Democrats dramatically outperforming Kamala Harris’s 2024 margins in special elections nationwide. Historically, he noted, that kind of overperformance has reliably foreshadowed major midterm losses for the party in power, warning that Republicans ignore the Texas result — and the trend behind it — at their own peril.

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'My goodness gracious!' Expert makes jaw-dropping midterm prediction after Texas shock 'My goodness gracious!' Expert makes jaw-dropping midterm prediction after Texas shock