College sports in 2026: NFL media deal, NCAA Tournament expansion, realignment whispers and more Hotline predictions
With a national champion crowned and the College Football Playoff format set for next season, it’s time to look ahead to 2026 with the Hotline’s fearless industry forecast.
The following 10 predictions largely involve off-the-field (and court) issues that will impact we see on the field.
Admittedly, our 2025 outlook featured hits and misses in what became a groundbreaking year. The next 12 months could offer another round of unprecedented change as college sports continues to evolve and time unfolds with accelerating speed.
The weeks feel like months, the months feel like years and the half-decade since COVID feels like an eternity.
Without further delay, let’s plunge into the forecast.
1. NFL flexes; college football reacts
The most significant event in college sports in the next 12 months will unfold outside college sports.
Five years ago, the NFL signed a $111 billion media deal that runs into the early 2030s, but commissioner Roger Goodell wants to renegotiate with the league’s broadcast partners, and he has all the leverage.
The revised deal will impact college sports in two ways:
— As part of the negotiations, the NFL will agree to add an 18th game, extending the regular season deeper into January and creating more competition with the college football postseason for eyeballs and oxygen. (With 18 games, the regular season would end after the CFP semifinals.)
— The deal will drain the bank accounts at Fox, ESPN, CBS and NBC, which are longtime NFL partners but also have agreements with college conferences. As a result, the Power Four will attempt to renegotiate their own media rights deals in a mad dash for the evaporating cash.
The Big Ten has an advantage in that its current deal is the first to expire (in the summer of 2030), while the SEC has little to fear given its status as a ratings machine. The ACC and Big 12 should be appropriately concerned.
2. Uniform patches arrive
Last month, Division I leaders approved the use of commercial patches on uniforms beginning Aug. 1, meaning some of the most famous jerseys in American sports will feature corporate logos.
Although jarring to the eye — nobody wants to see a Ford patch on Michigan’s iconic blue jersey — the endeavor will be lucrative for the schools. The biggest brands could fetch millions of dollars annually, helping to offset the cost of revenue sharing.
Thankfully, limits exist: There cannot be more than two patches per uniform.
3. March Madness expands
To be clear, the NCAA Tournament scheduled for next month will feature a 68-team field, as usual. But it likely will be the end of an era as college basketball powerbrokers push to expand the event to at least 72 teams and, more likely, 76.
Discussions are ongoing, with a final decision coming by April.
From here, the outlook is clear: There will be a 76-team tournament next spring — not because there’s a flaw in the current structure or the public is clamoring to watch a 12-loss Big Ten team play a 13-loss SEC team in the first round but because the schools want more money.
Reminder: They have plenty of revenue but are incapable of controlling expenses.
4. Pac-12, Mountain West settle
We expect resolution to both lawsuits in 2026: The $55 million poaching penalty case filed by the Pac-12 against the Mountain West and the (approximately) $100 million exit fee case filed by Colorado State, Utah State and Boise State against the Mountain West.
Nobody wants to risk a loss in court or the public reveal of embarrassing documents through the discovery process.
Our long-standing forecast hasn’t changed: The Pac-12 has the edge in the poaching penalty suit, and the Mountain West has an advantage in the exit fee suit.
Split the difference, and the Mountain West retains about two-thirds of the $155 million it had hoped to collect.
5. Transfer portal moves back
The single transfer portal window in January created a predictable level of chaos. After all, no other major sport allows its free agency period to unfold during the playoffs.
We expect another change for the 2026-27 offseason, with the portal moving to April or May.
(Notably, the Big Ten advocated for the single spring transfer window but was outnumbered by the ACC, Big 12 and SEC.)
And don’t be surprised if the portal change results in the elimination of spring practice. Coaches have no interest in conducting workouts with players who are dead set on leaving school a few weeks later.
6. Big 12 thinks creatively
Commissioner Brett Yormark’s relentless pursuit of exposure for his schools will lead to discussions about playing a smattering of conference games during the week — not only on Thursdays but also Sundays through Wednesdays.
We aren’t convinced the idea will become reality in time for the 2027 season, but the conference’s executive staff and media partners (ESPN and Fox) will make sure the issue receives a thorough vetting.
Broadcast windows for Big 12 brand expansion simply don’t exist on Saturdays. If the conference wants more eyeballs, it must take an unconventional approach.
7. LSU: the team to beat
After assessing all the roster changes, the Hotline has come to believe 2026 will close with Lane Kiffin and the Tigers as the top seed in the College Football Playoff.
The talent flowing to Baton Rouge this winter is overwhelming, with a 40-player transfer class that features the No. 1 quarterback (Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt), the No. 1 offensive tackle (Colorado’s Jordan Seaton) and the No. 1 edge rusher (Mississippi’s Princewill Umanmielen).
The cast of teams chasing LSU will include Oregon, Notre Dame, Texas, Indiana and Ohio State.
8. PE becomes commonplace
Utah was the first major college athletic department to take the private equity plunge. In December, the Utes partnered with Otro in a deal that will plow hundreds of millions into Utah Brands and Entertainment, a new commercial unit housing the athletic department’s revenue-generating arms (e.g., corporate sponsorships, ticketing, event-related revenues, etc.).
Look for at least a dozen FBS schools to follow in Utah’s tracks and create separate entities to maximize revenue opportunities.
What’s more, we fully expect the Power Four conferences to begin seriously considering ways to untether football from the traditional university and NCAA structures. The immensely challenging process would take years to play out, but if successful, it would make so many existing headaches go away.
9. A massive merger
Each month, it seems, the disparity between the Power Four conferences and the Group of Six leagues (including the new Pac-12) becomes more pronounced. And it’s not just the cash component. The chasm includes legislative and long-haul strategic issues, as well.
By the close of 2026, it will become abundantly clear that the Group of Six is stronger together.
Whether that reality eventually leads to an outright merger of two or more leagues (example: the Pac-12 and American) is uncertain at this point. But at the very least, the six conferences will discuss the creation of a unified leadership structure — a Group of Six commissioner, in other words — and seriously explore ways to collectively strengthen their competitive position relative to the Power Four.
10. Secret talks begin
The next wave of realignment is easy to spot on the horizon. In 2030, the Big Ten’s media rights deals expire, and the ACC’s exit fees plunge.
The next year, the Big 12’s agreements end.
Soon after, the College Football Playoff, NCAA Tournament and SEC contract cycles conclude.
But realignment waves typically form years before media rights contracts expire, and by the second half of 2026, we expect serious discussions to commence in back-channel fashion. Nothing traceable. Everything deniable. And all conversations motivated by the desire to join the SEC and Big Ten.
Which school is mostly likely to take the first step in a process that will take years to play out?
It’s not the ones you might think.
It’s not Florida State or Clemson, and it’s certainly not Notre Dame.
Our guess: North Carolina.
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