Brookings Warns Clerical Work Faces AI Displacement Risk

Clerical and administrative roles are expected to be among the hardest hit by AI-driven job displacement, according to a Brookings analysis. While artificial intelligence is forecast to affect millions of US workers, certain roles could be significantly more vulnerable due to a combination of economic and geographic factors.

Office clerks, receptionists, and secretaries are among the most at-risk occupations, largely because of their low adaptive capacity. Workers in these roles typically have below-average liquid financial resources, limited skill transferability, live in lower-density towns and cities, and face lower re-employment prospects if displaced.

These factors form the core of the framework used by the study’s authors, Sam Manning and Tomás Aguirre of the Centre for the Governance of AI, to assess whether workers are likely to transition successfully in a changing labour market.

Although these roles account for less than 30% of workers with high AI exposure, Brookings estimates they still include about 6.1 million people with both high exposure and low adaptive capacity, out of roughly 37.1 million of the most AI-exposed workers. Women make up 86% of that high-exposure, low-capacity group.

The remaining group, around 26.5 million workers, has above-average adaptive capacity. Even if AI displaces their roles, they are more likely to weather the transition and potentially secure better employment as a result.

The authors argue that governments should focus policy efforts on workers with low adaptive capacity, as they are the least likely to transition positively over the next decade. Support could include state-run retraining programmes or expanded access to further education.

AI experience becoming a requirement in certain roles

While many experts believe AI will eventually replace entire occupations, a growing number of job listings already list AI experience as a requirement. Workers who understand how to use tools such as ChatGPT and similar systems may be able to transition more quickly into new roles that use AI to boost workplace productivity.

As with the personal computer and the web, both of which were initially seen as job “killers”, AI may ultimately drive another productivity leap and give rise to entirely new careers and industries. Investment banking firm Goldman Sachs sees this as potentially the case, with a short-term pain for long-term gain. 

However, this offers little immediate comfort to the millions expected to be made redundant, much like typists and bookkeepers during the PC era, or travel agents and local journalists during the rise of the web.

A lack of entry-level roles

There is also concern that AI differs from previous technological shifts by targeting entry-level roles and human assistants more directly, rather than broadly improving productivity across entire industries. This risks devaluing a university degree, as many tasks once assigned to junior workers can now be handled by chatbots or AI agents.

While it is unlikely that companies will stop hiring graduates altogether, the labour market is currently in an awkward transition period. Many tasks traditionally given to new graduates are no longer required, leading employers to expect prior experience or skill sets equivalent to someone with two or more years in the workforce.

Also read: The AI employment paradox looks at how quickly AI is reshaping work, and how large the disruption could be.

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