Afghanistan’s Trade Via Alternate Routes Bypasses Pakistan Closures

Afghanistan’s authorities have intensified efforts to diversify trade corridors, gradually reducing dependence on Pakistan following repeated and lengthy border closures that have disrupted bilateral commerce. Major crossings such as Torkham and Chaman – which previously accounted for an estimated 40 percent of Afghanistan’s official trade – experienced extended shutdowns throughout late 2024 and into 2025 amid escalating allegations related to cross-border militancy and security incidents. These closures, often lasting several weeks, have reportedly inflicted monthly losses exceeding USD 200 million on Afghan exporters of perishable fruits, vegetables, and dried nuts. Imports of fuel, wheat, and pharmaceuticals were also delayed, contributing to domestic inflation and periodic shortages. In response, Kabul has increasingly prioritised alternative routes, including India via Iran’s Chabahar Port and new air links, alongside expanded overland connections with Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan, aiming to build a more resilient, multipolar trade network less vulnerable to sudden disruptions.

The deterioration in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations since 2021 has intensified tensions. Islamabad’s concerns regarding Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) activities inside Afghanistan and Kabul’s objections to Pakistan’s visa restrictions have compounded mistrust. The situation escalated in October 2025 during border clashes that prompted indefinite closures under counter-terrorism justifications. Prior to these developments, annual bilateral trade was estimated between USD 2.5 and 3 billion, with Afghanistan exporting around USD 1.5 billion in agricultural produce while importing fuel and basic commodities through Karachi and Gwadar ports. That figure is now believed to have fallen below USD 1 billion. Afghan agricultural products, such as grapes, have reportedly sold for significantly higher prices in Pakistani markets amid supply volatility, while hundreds of Afghan and Pakistani cargo trucks were left stranded near border points. Analysts suggest that although Pakistan sought to pressure Kabul regarding militant sanctuaries, the interruptions have also reduced Pakistan’s leverage as Afghan traders increasingly rely on costlier yet more predictable alternative routes.

A central component of this shift is the Chabahar International Transport and Transit Corridor, where India has maintained a long-term investment strategy. New Delhi’s USD 500 million contribution to Chabahar, operational since 2018, offers Afghanistan direct access through Iranian ports without requiring Pakistani transit. During Afghan Acting Industry Minister Nooruddin Azizi’s visit to India in November 2025, the sides discussed streamlined visas, lower air-freight tariffs, and expanded cargo flights from Delhi, Amritsar, and Mumbai to Kabul, with the objective of raising bilateral trade toward USD 1 billion. Chabahar has already facilitated the delivery of 1.5 million tonnes of Indian wheat and pulses since 2022. More recently, Afghan pomegranates and raisins have reached Indian markets within days rather than weeks. Although U.S. sanctions complicate Iranian port operations, Chabahar’s reduced docking fees and quicker customs processing have reportedly increased cargo volumes by 30 percent year-on-year.

Northern trade corridors to Central Asia also present expanding opportunities. Trade with Uzbekistan was estimated at USD 1.1 billion in 2024, supported by the Hairatan rail terminal and the Termez bridge, with 2025 targets approaching USD 2 billion across commodities including Uzbek flour, machinery, and Afghan minerals. Turkmenistan’s Torghundi crossing has seen fuel and construction material volumes rise, while Kazakhstan has proposed a USD 3 billion regional transport roadmap focused on road upgrades and dry ports. Afghanistan’s participation in the Ashgabat Agreement since 2018 underpins multimodal rail-and-road connectivity extending toward the Caspian region and aligning with segments of China’s Belt and Road Initiative through the Wakhan Corridor. Taliban officials, including Deputy Prime Minister Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, have encouraged Afghan traders to prioritise alternative routes, describing Pakistan’s measures as economically restrictive. Supporters of diversification argue that Afghanistan could gain a more central role as a regional transit hub, including potential energy import and export projects such as CASA-1000.

The diversification approach, however, faces significant constraints. Infrastructure limitations – including inadequate road quality, insufficient cold-chain storage, and limited rail connectivity – raise transportation costs by an estimated 20 to 40 percent for time-sensitive exports. Security risks persist on northern routes, while fluctuating Iranian transit regulations and tariffs in Central Asia add additional challenges. Afghanistan’s projected economic growth of around 2.5 percent in 2025 remains closely tied to imports, and customs revenues have reportedly fallen by roughly 25 percent due to border disruptions. Humanitarian concerns persist regarding wheat imports, particularly during drought periods. Nevertheless, analysts argue that forced diversification may create opportunities in value-added processing of Afghan agricultural products, expanded mineral exports to Asian markets, and joint logistics ventures that could gradually narrow the country’s approximately USD 6 billion trade deficit.

These evolving trade patterns also carry broader geopolitical implications. Pakistan risks strategic isolation as Afghanistan deepens economic cooperation with India and Central Asian states, while emerging transit alternatives potentially dilute the influence of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). For Afghanistan, long-term success will depend on sustained infrastructure investment and diplomatic engagement, including efforts to secure sanctions relief for Iranian-linked ports. If diversification strategies continue and logistical barriers are addressed, Afghan officials estimate that non-Pakistani trade could rise to USD 10 billion by 2027. While the current shift has been shaped by prolonged border tensions, policymakers emphasise that a broader network of trade partners may offer Afghanistan greater economic resilience and stability in the years ahead.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Khaama Press.

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