Market Musings 221125: H1 2026 Outlook

Outlook H1 2026
Weekly Podcast and Snapshot: Cooling of investors over-optimism
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Following the strong momentum led by technology stocks in the US and in Asia, concerns rose over the elevated valuations that tech stocks had reached.
Over the last week, a mini correction was seen, sending among others bitcoin down by 29% and tech giant Oracle by 34% from its September highs. This setback of global and US stocks should not worry investors as the Nasdaq 100 index has merely returned to the level it had reached in early October.
However, while more speculative names and the tech sector stumble, other sectors are taking over leadership of the global stock market. Pharmaceutical amp; biotech sectors are lately outperforming the Nasdaq Index. Another more surprising outperforming industry in November is Oil amp; Gas.
We maintain our positive 12-month view on global stocks and would suggest that now is a good time to look at sectors and stocks displaying relative strength outside of technology.

5 themes for H1 2026
Emerging market stocks to rebound further versus US on weaker USD, cheap valuation, lower interest rates, improving earnings. China to benefit from further government stimulus, ultra-low short- and long-term interest rates,...