US recession probability now at a staggering 93%, says UBS - here's what you need to track, hard data analysis, warning signs, employment trends, consumer, industrial indicators, aggregate outlook

US recession probability has reached 93% according to UBS analysis of hard economic data. The bank finds signals from employment, industrial production, and credit markets pointing to stagnation. While a full recession is not forecasted, weak growth and potential stagflation remain major concerns for 2025 and 2026.