Saudi Arabia and Pakistan just sealed a mutual defense pact. Is Riyadh moving under Islamabad’s nuclear shield? And what does it mean for the US?

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan’s new Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA), signed September 17 in Riyadh, pledges that aggression against one will be treated as aggression against both. It’s an unusual treaty-level step between longtime security partners and arrives amid Gulf doubts about US guarantees following the Israeli strike on Doha.

On the Three Questions podcast, Greg Priddy calls the deal what it is: “an actual mutual defense treaty,” noting its text “talks about treating an act of aggression against either state as targeting both states.” He adds that while it provides for consultations rather than an automatic response, it amounts to “a meaningful mutual defense commitment.”

Priddy argues the timing reflects a broader security rethink in Gulf capitals. “The magnitude of this really has not sunk in for a lot of folks in Washington,” he says, pointing to years of unease over US red lines and a new fear that Israel itself can be a source of risk for Gulf states. “One senior GCC official referred to this as a paradigm shift,” he notes. The agreement sends a signal to Washington and the region that Saudi Arabia is hedging.

The nuclear question looms in the background. With Pakistan a nuclear-weapons state, Priddy believes formalizing the relationship is meant as a deterrent, signaling to the region that the Saudis are “under someone’s nuclear umbrella, regardless of what the Americans do or don’t do.” There is debate over whether Riyadh now enjoys a de facto Pakistani deterrent, an implication officials in both countries have left ambiguous.

There are also clear risks for Washington. “Pakistan is problematic … because of the close Pakistan–China relationship [which] has questions over it when it comes to US military secrets and technologies,” Priddy says, particularly if Saudi and Pakistani air forces deepen their cooperation, with Beijing “hooked into that on the Pakistani side.” Islamabad hopes the deal will unlock Saudi investment as it seeks economic stability after years of crisis.

How far does the agreement actually go in practice? And does Riyadh’s hedge enhance Gulf stability or invite miscalculation?

Listen now on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

About the Speakers:

Paul J. Saunders is President of the Center for the National Interest and a member of its board of directors. He is also Publisher of The National Interest. His expertise spans US foreign and security policy, energy security and climate change, US-Russia relations and Russian foreign policy, and US relations with Japan and South Korea. Saunders is a Senior Advisor at the Energy Innovation Reform Project, where he served as President from 2019 to 2024. He has been a member of EIRP’s board of directors since 2013 and served as chairman from 2014 to 2019. At EIRP, Saunders has focused on the collision between great power competition and the energy transition, including such issues as energy security, energy technology competition, and climate policy in a divided world. In this context, he has engaged deeply in energy and climate issues in the Indo-Pacific region, especially US relations with Japan and South Korea. His most recent project at EIRP is an assessment of Russia’s evolving role in the global energy system.

Greg Priddy is a Senior Fellow for the Middle East at the Center for the National Interest. He also consults for corporate and financial clients on political risk in the region and global energy markets. From 2006 to 2018, Mr. Priddy was Director, Global Oil, at Eurasia Group. His work there focused on forward-looking analysis of how political risk, sanctions, and public policy variables impact energy markets and the global industry, with a heavy emphasis on the Persian Gulf region. Prior to that, from 1999 to 2006, Mr. Priddy worked as a contractor for the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) at the U.S. Department of Energy. Mr. Priddy’s writing has been published in The New York Times, The National Interest, Barron’s, and the Nikkei Asian Review, among others.

Image: Shutterstock

The post Why Riyadh Is Looking East for Security appeared first on The National Interest.