Windows 10 deadline boosts global PC market despite tariff fears

The global PC market recorded a strong performance in the second quarter of 2025, with total shipments of desktops, notebooks and workstations rising 7.4 per cent year on year to 67.6 million units, according to the latest data from Canalys.

Notebook shipments, which include mobile workstations, reached 53.9 million units, up 7 per cent compared with the same period a year earlier.

Shipments of desktops, including desktop workstations, rose 9 per cent to 13.7 million units.

Commercial PC deployments ahead of the upcoming end of support for Windows 10 in October drove volumes during the quarter, while consumer demand was weaker as customers globally faced an uncertain macroeconomic outlook.

The Trump administration’s unpredictable and unclear approach to tariffs continued to generate significant uncertainty for the industry.

Although PCs were exempt from tariffs during the quarter, the indirect effects of the evolving trade policies threaten the recovery of the global PC market, particularly in the United States.

“The Trump administration’s evolving tariff policies continue to reshape global PC supply chains while casting significant uncertainty over market recovery,” said Ben Yeh, Principal Analyst at Canalys, now part of Omdia.

“US imports of PCs have dramatically shifted away from China toward Vietnam as manufacturers seek to avoid potential tariffs,” he added.

“Although Trump’s reciprocal tariffs have been delayed again, this time to 1 August, and PCs currently remain exempt from tariffs regardless of origin, the underlying uncertainty persists,” he said.

The recently signed US-Vietnam trade deal establishes a 20 per cent tariff on Vietnamese goods and a 40 per cent tariff on transshipped items.

“What began as straightforward China avoidance has evolved into a complex regulatory maze,” said Yeh.

“The key question is whether PCs manufactured in Vietnam using Chinese components or through Chinese-controlled operations will be classified as transshipments and face the 40 per cent tariff,” he added.

“With enforcement criteria still undefined, market players face the reality that supply chain diversification alone may not provide the cost stability they initially sought,” he said.

“Despite global uncertainty, the Windows 10 end of support deadline this October is providing essential market stability, but is affecting consumer and commercial segments differently,” said Kieren Jessop, Research Manager at Canalys, now part of Omdia.

“The commercial refresh cycle is providing vital momentum for the market,” he added.

“A June poll of channel partners found over half expect their PC business to grow year on year in the second half of 2025, with 29 per cent anticipating growth of over 10 per cent,” he said.

“While businesses are displaying a greater sense of urgency in reacting to the end of Windows 10, consumers are delaying purchases amid macroeconomic uncertainty,” he added.

“As those consumer purchases are pushed into 2026, we anticipate the consumer PC market to grow next year as it coincides with a potential refresh cycle of COVID-era devices, which are starting to reach their end of life,” he said.

In the second quarter of 2025, Lenovo retained its position as the global PC market leader, shipping 17.0 million desktops and notebooks, a 15.2 per cent year-on-year increase.

HP remained in second place with 14.1 million units shipped, representing a 3.2 per cent annual increase.

Dell ranked third, shipping 9.8 million units, a 3.0 per cent decline compared with a year earlier.

Apple secured fourth place with impressive growth of 21.3 per cent, shipping 6.4 million units and achieving a 9.4 per cent market share.

Asus rounded out the top five with 18.4 per cent growth, shipping 5.0 million units during the quarter.