Tariffs ‘threaten prices, supplies’

Barbados and other countries which are heavily reliant on the United States (US) market could face increased consumer prices and disruptions in global supply chains linked to a US-led trade war.

However, a United States (US) tariff war with China will not significantly impact Barbados’ potential to export more products to the US.

In addition, the Donald Trump administration’s imposition of higher tariffs on America’s importation of steel and aluminium products will have minimal fallout for Barbados’ potential sale of these items to the US.

These are the findings of a new analysis by the International Trade Centre (ITC), a Geneva, Switzerland-based joint agency of the World Trade Organisation and the United Nations Trade and Development.

Speaking in the House of Assembly recently during the Appropriation Bill Debate, 2025, Senior Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade Kerrie Symmonds said that with the changing use of tariffs Barbados had to defend and promote its commercial interests.

Economic diversification was also a must, he added, and this included a major role for the private sector.

Symmonds said the private sector’s “supply chains must be rethought and reconsidered the way in which the target markets must be reconsidered, and we must therefore do everything we can as a country, rather than only as a government, in order to make sure that this country as a whole can continue to benefit.”

The ITC analysis, titled Exploring President Trump’s Tariff Threats, found that the US implementation of higher tariffs, whether broad or targeted, “could have significant economic repercussions”.

“Potential consequences include increased consumer prices and disruptions in global supply chains, particularly in those heavily reliant on the US market,” it said.

“Additionally, retaliatory measures from affected trade partners could sharply escalate protectionism, heightening the risks of further global trade disruption.”

The ITC also simulated the impact a US ten per cent point increase on Chinese imports, and a 25 per cent tariff on imports of steel, aluminium, and derivative products would have on the export potential of Barbados and other countries up to 2029.

The analysis concluded that Barbados’ potential exports in that time could increase by $2.8 million (2.2 per cent).

Products included in the assessment were animals and animal products; apparel and textile products; beverages; cereals and cereal products; chemicals; hazardous products; horticulture; machinery and electronic equipment; manufactured products; mineral resources and minerals, metals and products thereof; processed food and animal feed; sea animal products; skins, leather, products thereof and footwear; textile (fabric); vegetal products; vehicles; and wood, paper, rubber, and plastics.

A separate simulation showed that the potential of Barbados’ export of steel and aluminium products to the US between now and 2029 would decline by about $1.3 million (47 per cent).

The ITC predicted that the US implementation of higher tariffs “will have effects beyond the suppliers targeted by the duties”.

“They will also alter the terms of trade of third countries, with the extent of the impact depending on the types of products these countries export and the new relative levels of protection they face in the US market,” it explained.

It said that while the tariff simulations do not account for possible retaliatory tariffs from affected countries, “they do incorporate recently implemented Chinese retaliatory measures”.

The report cautioned, however, that “potential retaliatory actions by trade partners could further alter trade dynamics”.

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