Next Up - Virginia

17.02.2025 17:00

Feb 15, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils center Khaman Maluach (9) dunks the ball during the second half against the Stanford Cardinal at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Blue Devils won 106-70. | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

The Cavs have had a tough year since Tony Bennett retired, but lately, things have been looking up.

Date 2/17 || Time 8:00 || Venue John Paul Jones Arena || Video ESPN

Virginia has certainly had a tumultuous year. First, Tony Bennett, the best coach in the school’s history, resigned unexpectedly on October 18th. It was no surprise, at least not here: it was clear that the changes in college basketball would be profound difficult for coaches like Bennett and former Notre Dame coach Mike Brey. Coaches who like to mature their players slowly just seem bewildered by NIL and the new transfer rules.

Ron Sanchez took over and while he struggled a lot at the beginning, lately he’s done well.

Virginia took beatings early from Tennessee, St. John’s, Florida and narrowly lost to Memphis.

It was the scores that were surprising: Tennessee won 64-42. The Johnnies won 80-55. Florida scored 87 to Virginia’s 69.

Even though Bennett’s teams struggled with offense in recent years, the defense was a rock. And keep in mind that Bennett owned Pitino when he was at Louisville.

Coming into ACC play, Virginia was 7-5. Toss in a win over NC State and then the Cavaliers lost five straight and six out of the last seven.

Since January 25th though, Virginia is 4-2 and most of the wins have been convincing. So what happened? What changed?

Well as far as we can tell, what changed was Andrew Rohde hit his stride and took over point guard duties.

We haven’t watched Virginia closely, but in his last year at St. Thomas, we caught Rohde on TV and were blown away. The kid was really good.

That said, it was pretty far from the ACC and we weren’t sure he would translate, and last year, he did struggle and in particular, he has struggled with his shot.

Against SMU, he was 1-9. against Louisville, he was 3-10. Notre Dame? 1-8.

What he has done brilliantly is to get the ball to scorers and to do it without coughing it up.

Since the loss at Virginia Tech, Rohde has had 34 assists and just three turnovers. In his last three games - all wins - he has had nine assists in each.

Virginia’s margin of error is not that big so having discovered that Rohde can control the offense is huge.

It seems to have helped Isaac McKneely too. Toss out the Pitt game, where he was held to eight points, and in four of the last five games he’s hit for 26, 19, 20 and 22. He’s always been dangerous but lately he’s been more so.

From December 4th to January 29th, Dai Dai Ames didn't score in double figures. Since the first win against Virginia Tech on February 1st, Ames has scored 11, 27, 18 and 11.

Those two are the dominant scorers at this point although Taine Murray is also dangerous. He had 14 points against Memphis earlier, 20 against Miami and 10 against Virginia Tech in Game 1.

Virginia also has a bit of size to deal with. Blake Buchanan has shown some real potential at times and is a capable shot blocker.

Elijah Saunders (6-8/225) is no longer starting but he spent two years at San Diego State so he knows how to defend. Redshirt freshman Anthony Robinson (6-11/238) had 15 points, seven rebounds and to blocks against Virginia Tech in 18 minutes.

Then there’s true freshman Jacob Cofie (6-10/230) who has been starting. He’s averaging a respectable 7.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg although at 48.7 percent, he’s not shooting all that well (like most big men, his game is closer to the basket).

And of course, former Blue Devil TJ Power, who is 6-9, is in Charlottesville, but he hasn’t played since the win over Miami on the 29th of January (discrepancy: the Virginia Tech box score from Saturday doesn’t list him but ESPN’s game log has him down for four minutes). We’re not sure if that’s because of injuries or just because Sanchez has found a more workable rotation.

Other than Ames, who is 6-1, Virginia actually matches up fairly well with Duke’s size. And while we’ve talked about Virginia’s offensive improvement, what about the D?

Well, it’s not the same defense Bennett tormented the ACC with. Since the Miami game, Virginia is 4-1 and allowed 71, 74, 57, 61 and 70 points.

Shooting percentages:

Miami - 51/31.6 percent.
Virginia Tech - 48.1/34.8 percent
Pitt - 41.9/30 percent
Georgia Tech - 49.2/40.7 percent
Virginia Tech - 46/41.7 percent

So what happens with Duke in town?

Virginia has a lot to deal with.

Rohde, a slender 6-6 kid from Kon Knueppel’s hometown of Milwaukee, will see Tyrese Proctor and Sion James, 6-6 and 6-4 respectively first, then, as the defense switches, Knueppel, Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach and, when they’re in, Maliq Brown, Mason Gillis, Isaiah Evans and Caleb Foster.

And of course Flagg has emerged as the ultimate Swiss Army knife of college basketball. On one play he might bring the ball up, set up for a three, or drive to the basket if not dumping the ball off to a teammate.

Basically, there’s not really anything he can't do and it’s hard to double team him because Knueppel and, more and more often, Proctor will make you pay if you do. Malauch is becoming more reliable offensively and more aggressive defensively.

And now of course, presumably anyway, Flagg and Gillis are fully healthy after being ill for some time and Brown is fully recovered from his knee injury.

In short, it’s a tough matchup for Virginia. But the Cavaliers do have some advantages.

First, it’s at home and that never hurts. And second, Duke played on Saturday. Well, so did Virginia but it was a relatively short trip to Blacksburg. We assume they bussed over but they might have flown and if so, the travel was trivial.

Leaving that aside, Flagg and Gillis are both on the uptick, but a two-day turnaround might be pushing it, and who knows if the bug has hit anyone else?

Basically though, Virginia’s best chance is defense and while the Cavaliers have played markedly better since Rohde’s surge, Bennett’s defense, which often limited opponents to under 50 points, is no longer in place.

Rohde will get the first crack against Flagg, but he’s smaller and no one has been able to control Flagg one-on-one so far. He’ll likely need help from the Pack-Line and Flagg is highly adept at finding the open man.

That doesn’t mean that Virginia can’t win though. Even if they don’t catch Duke a little tired, the Cavs have had some success lately and that creates optimism. And if they can catch a wave, build on a little success and get the crowd fired up then who knows?

A few weeks ago, this game seemed trivial. We’re not saying that Virginia is likely to win. Pretty clearly they’re not going to be favored.

However, the game is always played on the court and unless and until Duke makes victory certain, Virginia has hope. And upsets are only possible with hope.

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