Paul Finebaum Takes A Stab At Basketball

A bit out of his element but he’s got thoughts.

Paul Finebaum is an SEC football chauvinist and we all accept that. That’s his schtick - tell the world that SEC football is better than sliced bread and nothing can come close to his sacred Situational Ethics Conference. He’s the Nicolas Chauvin of college football.

And everyone accepts that because that’s who he is: sort of a dour, pigskin version of Dick Vitale, less the humor, charm, energy and vitality.

But it’s February in the greatest season of SEC basketball so, maybe needing to feel relevant, Finebaum weighed in on Auburn and Duke.

Surprisingly though, his football bravado isn’t quite translating to the basketball side.

He said on ESPN that in case of a tournament rematch that “I think you have to go with Auburn. And, I’m sure some folks in North Carolina are saying, ‘Didn’t they play back in December? And, didn’t Duke beat Auburn?’ Yes, they did. Auburn had a lead in that game. But, ultimately, I think Auburn has emerged.”

Thing is, so has Duke.

In fairness to his Paulness, the December game was in Cameron which is an immense advantage. And Auburn did had a lead but didn't know that Duke had a flamethrower on the bench in Isaiah Evans, who shot 6-8 from three point range. And without Evans, Duke probably would have lost.

Duke hit 9-22 in that game from behind the line for 40.9 percent.

Obviously only three were by someone other than Evans. Tyrese Proctor hit 2-5 and Caleb Foster was 1-2.

Cooper Flagg was 0-4. Kon Knueppel was 0-1. Mason Gillis didn't attempt one.

But it’s not just that. At that point, Duke had lost to Kentucky and Kansas, narrowly. Look at how much has changed since then.

Khaman Maluach has grown up as a player. Mason Gillis has emerged as a reliable force off the bench, who can not only score but defend bigger players when needed. Sion James has become a huge asset.

Duke’s defense is radically better. Against Stanford, we saw Maluach and Flagg chasing and trapping guards all over the court - and tormenting Maxime Raymaund as well. Knueppel has emerged as a real hardass on defense and his offense has been an asset from Day One.

Maliq Brown is an amazing presence defensively, as disruptive as anyone we can remember, especially in the passing lanes or poking the ball away from someone who lets him get his hand close to it.

Just as importantly, Duke has a sense of togetherness that is rare. You can see it in the ball movement, which is at times gorgeous. We refer you to the break from Saturday when Flagg stripped Raynaud from behind for Exhibit A.

None of this is meant to minimize the challenge that Auburn would present to anyone. Bruce Pearl has the team of his coaching lifetime and they are absolutely a threat to win the tournament. And the Tigers have non-conference wins over Houston, Iowa State, UNC, Memphis, Ohio State and Purdue. That’s a heck of a resume.

The thing about the NCAA tournament though is that first, you obviously have to be good to make a deep run. And you have to be lucky too, in a number of ways. When we saw the South bracket in 2000, it was almost like it had been seeded for UNC’s benefit. They got to the Final Four by beating Missouri, Stanford, Tennessee and Tulsa. It wasn’t intentional of course. It’s just they had an ideal bracket that accommodated them further with key upsets like Cincinnati and Ohio State going out early.

And then there’s health and injuries. Remember UVA having a team bout with Covid, then losing to Ohio? Going back further, in 1966 Duke was loaded for bear but Bob Verga, who would be a devastating three point shooter today, came down with food poisoning. And just last season, Duke and Houston had a great game going when Houston lost point guard Jamal Shead to an ankle injury.

Cincinnati had a brilliant team in 1999-2000 but Kenyon Martin broke his leg in the C-USA tournament.

And then, back to the bracket, sometimes you draw teams that are just a bad matchup. Take Tennessee for Duke in Jon Scheyer’s first season. Remember when Gonzaga got Baylor in the championship game? That didn't end well.

Some teams look like Superman until another team turns out to be kryptonite. ESPN currently has Auburn as the #1 seed in the South and Duke as the #1 team in the East. Auburn might face Gonzaga, Marquette, Michigan State, Illinois, Kentucky, Clemson or Houston under the current projection. All of those could be difficult, not least of all SEC mate Kentucky, let alone Houston.

And Duke could see Baylor with Jeremy Roach, Ole Miss with Jaemyn Brakefield, Michigan, Maryland with all the lingering resentments, a rematch with Arizona, Louisville or Tennessee.

So while Duke and Auburn are both tremendous teams, the odds of both making it to the Final Four are not great.

If they do both make it though, we’d like Duke’s chances. And Auburn’s too for that matter. It’d be a great game we’re sure.