So, which team will win La Liga?

La Liga title race is heating up

Barcelona convincingly won at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán on Sunday evening to make it seven victories on the trot against Sevilla, but most importantly to take advantage of Saturday’s 1-1 draw in the Derbi Madrileño and break the La Liga title race wide open. 

Despite failing to win at the Santiago Bernabéu for the first time since November and a 3-1 drubbing at the hands of Milan, Real Madrid are still leading the way on 50 points. Their cross-town rivals Atlético are a single point off the pace and Barcelona have climbed up to 48, making it the closest league title challenge in a decade. So, who will win it?

Real own the know-how

Some might argue that it’s Real’s to lose. They are, after all, the most decorated side in Primera División history with 36 titles to their name – and do have the added incentive to successfully defend their title: Spain’s biggest club have not won back-to-back league honours since the 2006-’08 period, when Bernd Schuster followed up Fabio Capello’s achievement. 

And they certainly have the means. Carletto Ancelotti has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal, with the likes of Vinícius Júnior, Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappé leading the line. However, Los Merengues have been hit hard by injuries and with only 23 first-teamers the Italian mastermind has drawn reinforcements from the academy, as (strangely enough) the Spanish champions did not buy a single player this January.

Injury setbacks have not seriously hindered their progress so far, as Real have won 13 of their last 17 matches. And as far as La Liga is concerned, eight of their last 15 games will be at home, with the visit of fourth-placed Athletic Bilbao looking like the toughest one. They do have some tricky ties on the road, though, including two visits to Seville. And of course a potential title decider at Barcelona on May 11.

Of course, there’s also the small matter of the UEFA Champions League, which may prove crucial. While both the other La Liga title hopefuls have made it through to the round of 16, Real will have to knock out Manchester City in the play-ins just to catch up. 

Red-hot Atlético

Should Real again beat the only side in the world more expensive than their own, there’s a 50% chance of a double header with… Atlético. Not very promising, as the Champions League holders are winless against their two main La Liga rivals this season, while Diego Simeone’s charges remain unbeaten in the respective fixtures. The Colchoneros last won the league on the final day of a dramatic 2020-’21 campaign by finishing a mere two points ahead of their Madrid neighbours – and they’re once again banking on La Liga’s meanest defence to repeat that feat. 

With 19 victories in their last 22 games Atlético are one of the in-form teams in the world, but they will have to avoid any more slip-ups like their 1-0 loss at Leganés as they visit a number of lowly sides in their title run-in. Eight of their 15 remaining games are away, but they do welcome Barcelona next month.

El Clásico to decide it?

And Barça will be out for revenge, after losing the respective fixture 2-1 at home just before Christmas to that Alexander Sørloth 96th minute strike. Unbeaten in their 11 matches since and having won nine of them, Hansi Flick’s team boasts the most brutal attack in the league this season and only has six away fixtures in its calendar – one of them at city rivals Espanyol, a few days after visiting bottom side Real Valladolid, who may have already gone down by early May. And yes, they do finish their campaign in Bilbao, but their nine home games until then include the aforementioned El Clásico. And it’s Real who should be wary, after being soundly beaten 4-0 at home in October and again 5-2 last month, in the Supercopa final in Jeddah.

All three La Liga title chasers are also involved in the Copa del Rey semis and it’s uncertain if and how the balance of power between them might shift after their inevitable clashes on that front too. It was Barcelona 91, Real 90, Atlético 88 points at the end of a memorable 2015-’16 Primera División. What will the top of the table look like come May 25? Most major betting firms still favor Real. But I wouldn’t bet on it. 

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