Breaking down 2025 Grammys Record of the Year race: Sabrina, Billie, and Kendrick take on the Beatles
With the 2025 Grammys due to be handed out on Sunday there’s much drama over several marquee races, including Record of the Year. Although the official Gold Derby odds favor Sabrina Carpenter‘s “Espresso,” it doesn’t mean she’s a lock, especially considering she’s up against a two-time previous winner of this category, the most awarded artist in Grammy history, and one of the most beloved bands in the history of recorded music.
Here is the case for and against each of the eight nominees:
“Birds of a Feather” by Billie Eilish
The case for: Eilish is loved by the Recording Academy. Of her nine career Grammys, six have been in general field categories: Best New Artist, Album of the Year for When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?, Song of the Year for both “Bad Guy” and “What Was I Made For?,” and Record of the Year for “Bad Guy” and “Everything I Wanted.” Those latter two victories came back-to-back in 2020 and 2021, and she was only the third artist to achieve that feat, following Roberta Flack and U2. And “Birds of a Feather” is one of the biggest hits of Eilish’s career, perhaps second only to “Bad Guy.” When she won for “Everything I Wanted,” it came as a surprise — to her as much as to anyone else — because the track was a fairly modest hit by her standards, peaking at No. 8 on the Billboard Hot 100 singles chart. If she could win for that, you’d think it would be much easier for her to prevail for Spotify’s most streamed song of 2024.
The case against: Too much too soon? Eilish is just 23, but she has achieved more awards success than musicians thrice her age, so there’s no urgency around “Birds of a Feather,” especially when there are other artists in this category who have never won before and come in with even bigger hits. On Billboard‘s year-end Hot 100, “Birds” ranked 15th, below Kendrick Lamar‘s “Not Like Us” and Carpenter’s “Espresso” at Nos. 6 and 7, respectively. Chart success isn’t everything at the Grammys, but it’s hard to win this category without popular support. For instance, last year’s champ was Miley Cyrus‘s “Flowers,” 2023’s second-biggest hit. So Eilish might have a better chance of winning the Song of the Year race with this love ballad.
“Espresso” by Sabrina Carpenter
The case for: The song never topped the charts, but it was the most popular hit overall for this breakout star. It’s the biggest pop hit in this category (see above re: Billboard‘s year-end list). It was quite possibly the most inescapable pop banger of the year, like “Flowers” last year and Lizzo‘s “About Damn Time” in 2023. And there are other precedents for upbeat, catchy hits prevailing here: “Get Lucky” by Daft Punk featuring Pharrell Williams and Nile Rodgers in 2014 and “Uptown Funk” by Mark Ronson featuring Bruno Mars in 2016. What’s more, over 50 percent of Gold Derby users are current picking this one to win. They may be onto something.
The case against: Is “Espresso” too lightweight for the Grammys’ top prize? Its lyrics are bright and infectious (“I know I Mountain Dew it for ya/That morning coffee, brewed it for ya/One touch and I brand-newed it for ya”), but mostly unserious. And when it comes to pop hits, voters often prefer weightier, more emotional themes. Consider the heartbreak of past champs like Gotye and Kimbra‘s “Somebody That I Used to Know,” Sam Smith‘s “Stay With Me” and Adele‘s “Hello.” This, in fact, may be why Carpenter and her team decided to submit a more sentimental song, “Please Please Please,” to Song of the Year.
“Fortnight” by Taylor Swift feat. Post Malone
The case for: Swift has won Album of the Year four times, more than any other performer, so her esteem among her industry peers goes without saying. But she has never won Record of the Year despite previous nominations for “You Belong With Me” (2010), “We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together” (2013), “Shake It Off” (2015), “Blank Space” (2016), and “Anti-Hero” (2024). So she may be considered due for this prize. The song also hit No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100, which only two other songs on this list can claim (“Not Like Us” and Beyoncé‘s “Texas Hold ‘Em”).
The case against: Three of the times she won Album of the Year, she was also nominated for Record of the Year (“You Belong With Me” with Fearless, “Blank Space” with 1989, “Anti-Hero” with Midnights), but she still wasn’t able to carry that momentum to a victory in the category. And those songs were markedly bigger hits than “Fortnight,” which debuted at No. 1, but didn’t remain at or near the top for very long, so it might be out of sight, out of mind. And though it comes from an Album of the Year nominee (The Tortured Poets Department) that was a blockbuster on the charts, it represented a step down for Swift in terms of critical acclaim. Plus, with that record-breaking fourth Album of the Year win in 2024, some Swift fatigue may be setting in. Perhaps most damning, though, is the fact that “Fortnight” couldn’t even secure a nom for Best Pop Duo/Group Performance, which suggests limited support from pop voters in the Recording Academy.
“Good Luck, Babe!” by Chappell Roan
The case for: This standalone single, which was released after her Album of the Year-nominated The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess, enjoyed a steady, organic rise to the top five on the Billboard Hot 100, building the kind of gradual word-of-mouth that’s rare in music these days. The subject matter is also unique, centering a same-sex romance with a woman denying her attraction to other women. That could appeal to queer and queer-allied voters and gives the song a modern, even political resonance at a time of rising anti-queer sentiment in the United States. Overall, Roan submitted to six categories on the Grammy ballot and was nominated in every one, including the big four (Record, Album, and Song of the Year, Best New Artist); she and Carpenter are the only artists this year with nominations in the quartet of general-field races, demonstrating just how much voters admired them both this year.
The case against: There are a lot of young female pop artists nominated in this category (Eilish, Swift, Carpenter, Roan, Charli XCX), so they may split votes. This song ranked 18th on Billboard‘s year-end list, so it might end up lost in the shuffle against more prominent hits. Her best bet is for “Good Luck, Babe!” to be carried along in a Roan clean sweep of the general field, but only two artists have ever achieved that: Christopher Cross and Eilish.
“Not Like Us” by Kendrick Lamar
The case for: It’s the biggest overall hit in this category per Billboard‘s year-end list. It was part of an epic war of hip-hop diss tracks between Lamar and Drake that sparked discussion across the music industry and music fandom, cementing it as one of the defining moments in music in 2024. The track was so powerful that Drake sued Universal Music Group over its allegedly inflated popularity, which probably only helped the song’s reputation. (Drake has since ceased his legal action.) But the song wasn’t just a blip in a rap battle. It was a fixture in the top 10 for months, and was in the top 20 as recently as last week. Lamar is also one of the Grammys’ most loved artists, scoring 17 wins out of 57 nominations to date. And boasting the only hip-hop track in this category, he could dominate the Academy’s R&B and rap blocs without risk of vote-splitting.
The case against: Only one rap song has ever won Record of the Year: Childish Gambino‘s “This Is America,” which was politically themed and thus may have been considered “important” enough to win. You don’t necessarily need the most gravitas to prevail here (“Espresso” is the odds-on favorite, after all), but rap seems to be held to a much higher standard by the Academy. Consider that Lamar managed to win a Pulitzer Prize for his album Damn and still couldn’t win a Grammy in the general field. So rap music has always faced an uphill battle in the top categories, and a diss track may be perceived as too petty and slight — despite its serious allegations against Drake — to hold up as the year’s best recording.
“Now and Then” by the Beatles
The case for: The Beatles haven’t actually won that many Grammys relative to their world renown. The band has only collected seven trophies, including Album of the Year for Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band. But they never won Record of the Year despite four previous nominations for some of their most famous songs: “I Want to Hold Your Hand” (1965), “Yesterday” (1966), “Hey Jude” (1969), and “Let It Be” (1971). So none of the whippersnappers in this category even come close in terms of overdueness. And veteran status has been known to benefit artists in this spot (Santana‘s “Smooth” with Rob Thomas, Daft Punk’s aforementioned “Get Lucky”), even when those songs aren’t prominent hits (Ray Charles and Norah Jones‘ “Here We Go Again,” Robert Plant and Alison Krauss‘ “Please Read the Letter”). The Fab Four is also the only rock act in this category, giving them a potential leg up against the slew of pop starlets who could divide support.
The case against: The veteran factor didn’t help ABBA, who were nominated twice in this category in recent years (for “I Still Have Faith in You” in 2022 and “Don’t Shut Me Down” in 2023). And they were even more overdue, having never won a Grammy in any category. Also, the creation of “Now and Then” could be controversial. It started as an unfinished composition by John Lennon, which the surviving band members tried to record in the 1990s. Paul McCartney and Ringo Starr, the last living Beatles, finally finished it in 2023 with the help of machine-learning technology. So voters may be impressed by the science that brought them one last Beatles hit, or they may be reluctant to reward a recording that incorporates any kind of artificial intelligence, which is a particularly controversial subject among creative professionals who fear that AI will be used to put them out of work.
“Texas Hold ‘Em” by Beyoncé
The case for: Beyoncé’s historic run at the Grammys is well known: more nominations than anyone else in history (99), and more wins too (32). She’s the most nominated artist this year with 11 bids, which means her Cowboy Carter has the most noms of any album in the awards’ history. She’s also the most nominated artist in the history of this category, now with nine bids. She hasn’t won it yet, but this year could be different because she’s competing with a country song. That opens her up to an entirely new audience — and voting bloc — who could push her over the top. She also has rap and pop nominations this year, so she’s clearly popular with those voters as well. This may be the year when everything lines up for Queen Bey.
The case against: Nothing ever seems to line up for Queen Bey, though, no matter how many times she wins in genre categories. The only time she has ever prevailed in the general field was Song of the Year for “Single Ladies (Put a Ring on It)” in 2010. And the fact that this country song and its parent album are so uncharacteristic in her discography could work against her as well as for her if she sheds her usual base of support as a result. Also, the real brass ring for Beyoncé is Album of the Year. Cowboy Carter as a cumulative achievement is more likely to be rewarded, unless voters want to make it up to Beyoncé so badly that she sweeps the top categories.
“360” by Charli XCX
The case for: Charli exceeded expectations overall with eight bids and was a surprise nominee in this race. She’s the only dance/EDM artist nominated in this category, so she stands out from the crowd, though she’s likely to compete for a lot of the same pop votes as her rivals. And her critical acclaim is through the roof: her album Brat was the best reviewed album of the year based on review aggregator Metacritic, giving her added prestige.
The case against: Charli has had a lot of chances to be nominated by the Grammys — Brat is her sixth album — but her only previous bids were as a featured artist on “Fancy” by Iggy Azalea in 2015. That may evidence a lack of Academy enthusiasm for her work in general. “360” is also arguably the most obscure track in this race. Though it was a top 10 hit on pop radio, it only peaked at No. 41 on the Hot 100 and didn’t make Billboard‘s list of the top 100 singles of the year. The lack of a Song of the Year nomination is also a sign of “360’s” relative weakness in this race. As with Beyoncé above, Charli probably stands a better chance of winning for her album as a whole than for this track on its own.