What do Man City need to guarantee qualification to the Champions League last 16?
MANCHESTER City may be established European juggernauts – but the new league format has made things trickier to navigate.
Following defeat to Paris Saint-Germain, the Sky Blues sit 25th in the League Phase table – just outside the play-off spots – on eight points with one more game to fight for.
Pep Guardiola’s side had the chance to put themselves in a reassuring position in their penultimate game in Paris, but the 4-2 capitulation – when they led by two – has given advantage back to direct rivals PSG.
City’s final game will pit them against fellow last 16 hopefuls Club Brugge at the Etihad on Wednesday.
Brugge, one of nine teams still in contention for a playoff spot, sit 20th on 11 points.
PSG and last playoff spot holder, Stuttgart, also clash on the final matchday.
What do Man City need to guarantee qualification to the Champions League last 16?
For City to progress they must secure a win due to goal difference of the teams around them.
The introduced eight-game ‘Swiss model’ has scrapped the traditional 32-team group stage of Europe’s top club competitions for a 36-team league phase.
The top eight automatically qualify for the last 16 and are joined by the winners of a play-off round between those that finished ninth to 24th.
Those that finish 25th to 36th are eliminated from all European competition – teams no longer drop into the Europa League.
According to Opta’s supercomputer – which simulates the 2024-25 UCL league phase 50,000 times to work out a team’s Champions League knockout likelihood – City have an expected points of 10.1.
According to that algorithm, City had an 84 per cent chance of reaching the play-offs prior to their defeat in the French capital.
The new tally of 63.8 per cent still gives them a chance of playoff qualification, but there is plenty of room for error with a 36.2 per cent chance of elimination.
Despite the array of permutations and the number of teams involved, City’s task remains simple – win and they qualify for the play-off round.