What role did arsonists play in the California wildfires?

Catastrophic wildfires ripped through Los Angeles over the last three weeks, leaving 28 people dead, countless homes destroyed and an estimated $250 billion in damages. Extremely dry conditions and unusually strong Santa Ana winds spurred the fires, in addition to water infrastructure problems. A Southern California rainstorm on January 26 provided much-needed relief for firefighters working on containment. But there may have been another culprit behind the conflagrations: Arsonists using the opportunity to sow further chaos.

Are arsonists responsible for starting the LA fires?

Most likely not, though it may take months before there are definitive answers. "To jump to any conclusions right now is speculation," said Ginger Colbrun, a spokesperson for the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, to the Los Angeles Times.

The agency is investigating the cause of the Palisades Fire, which has burned over 23,000 acres, and is now now 90% contained. It took more than a year to conclude the cause of the 2023 fire in Lahaina, Maui, which was "started by broken power lines," said Wired. Apparently "authorities never find the source of ignition for more than half of all wildfires in the Western U.S.," a "knowledge gap that can hamper prevention efforts."

"Fires break out in the wooded areas on the edges of Los Angeles all the time," said NBC News, many accidentally started by the city's homeless. In this case, it seems the "combination of ferocious winds and a parched landscape created ideal conditions for the fast-moving fires." While "copycat arson" is a known phenomenon and experts admit arsonists may have begun smaller fires that followed the Palisades blaze and the similarly destructive Eaton Fire (now 98% contained) in Pasadena, people are probably not responsible for the initial conflagrations.

"You don't need a gang of arsonists to go out there and be starting fires because nature is taking care of that for you," Scott Fischer, a retired federal law enforcement arson investigator, said to NBC News.

What kind of damage have arsonists done in LA?

At least eight people have been arrested so far in connection with setting small recent fires in Los Angeles, according to CNN. Such suspects have set "trees, bushes, leaves and trash ablaze," officials told the outlet. The truth is about 95% of fires in California are caused by humans, "whether through an intentional act of arson, a downed power line or a backyard barbecue party or fireworks celebration gone awry," Cal Fire officials said. A total of 109 arson arrests were made in 2024.

Last week, an arson suspect was arrested after a brush fire broke out in Griffith Park, the Los Angeles Times reported. He became "at least the ninth person across Southern California taken into custody for allegedly starting small fires in the wake of Eaton and Palisades infernos."

Why are people setting (more) fires in LA?

Conspiracy theories about the fires abound, as people search for more satisfactory answers than science provides. "Every wildfire is accused of not being a wildfire, but a planned attack to further sinister ends," said Mother Jones. These theories are a "mix of climate change denialism and attempts to pin the disasters on their usual and preferred villains."

Additional crimes happening in the wake of a natural disaster are common. "They think it's a perfect time to do it, because everybody's tied up," fire investigator Bob Duval said to CNN. Arsonists' motivations can include mental health issues, societal resentment, "trying to make a statement" or "mischief" and "blowing off steam." The people who set these fires may be more "attention-seeking" than malicious, said William Weinberg, a California criminal defense attorney with experience working on arson cases.