Moves During the Intermission of War

Fighting terrorists is like playing chess with an opponent who has no respect for the rules of the game to the point that whenever they find themselves losing, they flip over the board so they can start over again. We know from former Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s own mouth that in negotiations with Israel it has always been Hamas who has refused to accept whatever offer, no matter how reasonable, has been on the table.

But President Trump is the new sheriff in town and during the transition he declaimed that there would be hell to pay if the hostages were not released before his inauguration. So Hamas finally agreed to accept a hostages-for-ceasefire deal and now they are doing their best to make it work in their favor.

The first stage of the hostages-for-ceasefire deal is scheduled to last forty-two days. Some people think that this will lead into phase two and three with complete withdrawal of Israeli forces by the end of it and Hamas reasserting its rule over Gaza; in other words Hamas wins the war. Consequently, the West under Hamas’ tutelage will build Gaza back better so that the next time Hamas pulls off a 10/7 it will be better able to resist the Israeli counteroffensive and so on and so forth until time immemorial.

It is highly unlikely, unthinkable really, that this is how things will unfold. President Trump himself has said that he doubts that we will be seeing phase three and in the meantime as hostages are slowly being returned Israel is certainly not sitting on its hands.

Consider first what Hamas is doing or trying to do in Gaza. Part of it is what Richard Landes has popularized as Pallywood, making things appear to be other than the are. In this instance Hamas wants to appear to the world much stronger than it is. Careful observers who have looked closely at the Hamas celebrations have noted that the terrorists who poured out into the streets at the beginning of the ceasefire though well-fed, well-dressed and well-groomed were not well armed.

Some of them are carrying ancient Kalashnikovs manufactured in Romania, while others were not even carrying guns but some sort of wooden fakes. During the course of the war so far Israel has been very effective at capturing and destroying Hamas’ arms and, since the IDF went into Rafah and occupied the Philadelphi corridor, it has become very difficult if not impossible for Hamas to continue smuggling arms in from Egypt.

Moreover, the IDF has destroyed most if not all of the smuggling tunnels running from Egypt to Gaza under the Philadelphi corridor and, most importantly, remains deployed there. Some pundits have claimed that the present deal is no different from the deal that was offered to Hamas and rejected by them months ago but this is not entirely true. Many aspects are the same but not all. The crucial difference is that against Hamas’s strenuous objections — complete with last-minute threats to withdraw from the deal — Israel has insisted that it be allowed to remain there and there it remains.

Meanwhile Hamas having lost thousands and thousands of foot-soldiers by using bribes and threats has managed to recruit thousands and thousands more. But the new recruits, unlike those that they have replaced, are raw and poorly trained. They know how to shoot an AK-47 and plant an IED, and they know how to put a pistol to the head of Gazan civilians to make them comply and co-operate, but in other respects when hostilities resume, they will be cannon-fodder for the IDF.

This brings us to what the IDF is now up to. In the last couple of days, a number of key IDF commanders have tendered their resignations and will have been replaced by the end of phase one. In resigning they have admitted that they are doing so by way of taking responsibility for the shortcomings that led up to October 7. That is quite right. The disastrous intelligence failure and belated response to events as they developed that day is not entirely their fault. There is a lot of blame to go around, but some of it surely rests on their shoulders. The problem with them is that like many of their counterparts in the U.S. armed forces, despite their ranks, they are rather more politicians than warriors. And in the IDF the new minister of Defense will be replacing them with real warriors.

Nor in other ways is the IDF sitting around waiting for reshuffling and restructuring. Many observers have noted with alarm that the terrorists that have thus far been freed in exchange for hostages have been released into Judea and Samaria. This is a valid concern because for some time Hamas has been trying to build cells on that territory. And of course, the Palestinian Authority doesn’t like this. They know that Hamas is now more popular with their own people than they themselves are.

But the PA is rather pathetic at their own security.  It is well known that the PA got decimated by Hamas in the struggle to control Gaza and the same thing is happening in Judea and Samaria, particularly in Jenin where Hamas has been building up a stronghold. Recently the PA tried evicting Hamas from that city and not only did they suffer heavy casualties but were humiliated by being forced to sign a declaration of non-aggression against Hamas.

Israel is quite aware that Iran is desperately trying to arm Hamas in Judea and Samaria by smuggling in arms through Jordan, so the IDF is now taking matters into its own hands. They have been redeploying into those territories, have entered Jenin and are busy doing there what the PA was incapable of doing.

In another way, just as importantly, something else has been happening in that part of ancient Israel. During the course of the war another 12,000 settlers have moved there to Area A which is the part of the territory designated by the Oslo accords for total Israeli control. It is not hard to see where this is leading. Eventually Israel, hopefully with U.S. backing, will declare sovereignty over these areas, including, crucially, the Jordan Valley. And the Palestinians living in Areas B and C, which were designated by the Oslo accords for their control, will be granted autonomy up to but not including full-fledged status as a state, which is to say that they will not be allowed to militarize and ultimate security will remain in the hands of the IDF.

But preliminary to that Israel, perhaps with the help of the Trump administration, will have to finish taking out Iran’s nuclear facilities and cementing its relationship with the more benevolent Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia. The Jew-hating international community will not like it; they still hanker for a two-state solution.

But Israel is not the same nation that it was before this war, insofar as it cares less and less what the international community thinks of it and more about what it needs to do to survive.

What one sees now going on in Europe with the slow and steady takeover of the Continent by radical Islamist forces,  Europe will have enough trouble keeping its head above water. Scapegoating Israel for the troubles that it has brought upon itself will not help.

Jews are leaving Europe in droves, especially the UK and France, and a great many of them are ending up in Israel. Aside from feeling attached to their ancestral homeland, the calculus is that even if they feel somewhat unsafe there at least they will be in a country that cares about their safety and will do its utmost best to protect it. The same cannot be said of the countries of Europe.

So, this is how the new chess game is shaping out.

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