Consumers are still strong, despite rising debt delinquencies

Even though Procter & Gamble Co. has been selling a lot of dish soap and toilet paper, there’s a handful of warning signs regarding the health of the U.S. consumer right now. Interest rates are still high, and there’s a good chance they’ll stay that way for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, according to data from the New York Federal Reserve, delinquencies on credit cards and auto loans have been rising for over a year now.

That sounds like bad news for an economy that’s powered by consumer spending. But, not really.

“The credit metrics are looking great. The consumer’s in a great place,” said Richard Fairbank, CEO of Capital One, during an earnings call this week. Fairbank said the bank’s customer account balances are higher than before the pandemic.

Gerard Cassidy, a bank analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said the government relief aid that went out early in the pandemic is still helping people pay their bills.

“And I think it’s going to take at least another year or two before it’s completely washed out of the system,” he said.

The labor market is still strong too. Workers in many fields are hard to find. Income growth is outpacing inflation.

“For most people that have jobs, and particularly those that have investments, they have homes, and those values are going up, the credit situation for most households is pretty solid,” said Ben Ayers, senior economist at Nationwide.

But the emphasis there is on “most.” Ayers said plenty of households are struggling under the weight of high prices and high interest rates. In fact, he said it’s those households that are behind the recent increase in loan delinquencies.

“They’re falling behind on payments,” said Ayers. “They’re putting more of their day-to-day expenses on credit cards. And it’s that segment that we’re definitely concerned about.”

But those pockets of stress don’t pose much of a threat to the broader economy because wealthier consumers are still in good shape, said Shannon Grein, an economist with Wells Fargo.

“So the top 20% of consumers account for about 40% of spending in the U.S.,” Grein said. “So I think you can have these vulnerabilities surface without it causing a meaningful deterioration in consumer spending.”

Grein said the risk here is that the strong economy will mask those vulnerabilities. She said that’s something the Federal Reserve will have to keep in mind.

“They need to see a little more sustained progress on inflation, but I do think they’re also aware of the fact that higher rates are having an impact on certain areas of the economy, particularly these more vulnerable consumer groups,” said Grein.

Cutting interest rates, she added, could help those groups stay afloat.