The Bright and Dark Sides of the Hostage Deal

Israeli headlines were bursting on Wednesday night with the dramatic news of a deal to bring home the remaining hostages and end the war in Gaza.

Over the course of six weeks Hamas will gradually release the “first phase” of hostages: 33 women, children, and elderly. Israeli intelligence believes that most are alive, but some will be returned as corpses. Yet phase two, during which Israeli men would be released, has not even been fully negotiated yet, and there is a disturbing possibility that it will never be.

To understand Israel’s bitter-sweet reaction, one needs to realize that there are two main representatives of the hostages’ families: the “Hostages and Missing Families Forum” and another called the “Hatikva Forum,” and they hold fundamentally different views.

The Hostages and Missing Families Forum is mostly comprised of families of women, children, and the elderly who would be released in phase one. This forum has long demanded a deal at any price, often through furious and ongoing public protests. On Wednesday night we saw Israeli families screaming for joy, breaking down in tears, and other heartbreaking and heartwarming displays.  Words like “catharsis” and “relief” have dominated Israeli headlines, and every Israeli feels this deeply.

The Hatikva forum, however, is not expecting to see their children any time soon, because their loved ones are mostly young men — in other words, hostages who will not be released in phase one. These families have long insisted on releasing all hostages at once, comparing a phased deal to the practices of the Holocaust, in which Nazis separated Jews into groups that would live or die. Indeed, Hamas’s previous demands with respect to a potential phase two have crossed all of Israel’s red lines, making a phase two appear highly unlikely.

Even more concerning is that after phase one, Israel will have given up much of its leverage and military momentum. If the deal fails after that point, the children of the Hatikva families might be effectively abandoned in Gaza, permanently. Over the past 24 hours the Hatikva families have been mostly ignored by Israeli media, and they describe the entire situation as a “betrayal.”

Israel is preparing to release approximately 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, including those who participated in the Oct. 7 massacre. The IDF will leave the “Netzarim corridor” which separates northern and southern Gaza, allowing Palestinians (and presumably also Hamas) to return to northern Gaza. Most of the attacks on Oct. 7, 2023 initiated from northern Gaza, making this area especially sensitive from a security perspective. Israel will also reportedly reduce (though not entirely end) its presence in the “Philadelphi corridor,” which connects Gaza to Egypt, and has long been a source of Iranian resupply to Hamas.

Finally, if we do reach beyond the first and second phases of this deal, Israel will announce a permanent ceasefire and Gaza will be subject to a flood of aid and reconstruction. Reconstruction is expected to be supervised by Qatar (one of Hamas’s main sponsors), Egypt (which is lately rumored to be preparing to open military hostilities against Israel), and the United Nations (which has long supported Hamas’s terror activities through its UNRWA organization).

Crowds took to the streets in Gaza to celebrate the news of a ceasefire, chanting, “We are the people of Muhammad Deif” (one of the architects of the Oct. 7 massacre). And just in case there was any doubt  about the prevailing sentiment in the Arab world, the late Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was recently declared the Arab world’s “Person of the Year” by Egypt’s Hurriyat news network, with 85 percent of the wide-ranging vote.

There is, however, cause for hope.

Israeli Cabinet Secretary Yossi Fox claimed Tuesday evening that the current deal “is the same deal as May 27” which Hamas had rejected. Hamas has long insisted that any deal begin with an immediate and permanent end to the war, immediate and complete IDF withdrawal from the entirety of Gaza, and a significant role for Hamas in post-war Gaza, along with binding international guarantees of the same.

In the latest deal, Hamas has achieved none of those goals, and there’s a reason why. Since Hamas rejected a similar deal in May, the IDF has defeated and dismantled the last of Hamas’s 24 formal battalions, it’s leadership, (including Oct. 7 architect Sinwar) has been mostly killed, Hezbollah has been reduced to a shadow of its former self in Lebanon, Syria’s Bashar al-Assad has fallen, Iran has been militarily humiliated, and the United States has elected a new president, Donald Trump, whose incoming national security adviser, Mike Waltz, said just this week, “Gaza has to be fully demilitarized, Hamas has to be destroyed to the point that it cannot reconstitute … Israel has every right to fully protect itself, [and] all of those objectives are still very much in place.”  This is a significant departure from the rhetoric of the prior US administration, giving Israelis hope of maintaining its military leverage through phase two and beyond.

There are other benefits to this deal: thousands of IDF reservists desperately need to return to their families and careers, and the IDF needs to redeploy its readiness to face new and emerging challenges (including a rapidly changing Syria and the possibility of a direct confrontation with Iran). Most importantly, Israelis have not been able to rest knowing that one of the principal goals of the war, the return of the hostages, had yet to be accomplished even after more than 400 days.

The promise to protect every Israeli is central to the covenant between Israel and its people. This means bringing home the hostages, but it also means protecting all Israelis — including those who could potentially become the next hostages or targets of future terror attacks. At times it seems difficult or impossible to accomplish both of these imperatives at once.  Yet the Middle East is a vastly different place than it was on Oct. 6, 2023, in many respects for the better.

The next six weeks of “phase one” will be a kind of emotional torture for Israelis, with highs and lows, terrible suspense, joyful reunions, and tragic disappointments. All the while, Israel’s young, male hostages will remain in captivity as their families hope against all odds that they too might eventually come home. Finally, the months and years to come will determine whether Israel and the Middle East become safer and more prosperous, or whether we will repeat the same long-term mistakes that brought us to this torturous year in the first place.

Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck, an organization dedicated to deepening public conversation through robust research studies and public speaking.

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