Machine learning and spatio-temporal analysis of meteorological factors on waterborne diseases in Bangladesh

by Arman Hossain Chowdhury, Md. Siddikur Rahman

Background

Bangladesh is facing a formidable challenge in mitigating waterborne diseases risk exacerbated by climate change. However, a comprehensive understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of these diseases at the district level remains elusive. Therefore, this study aimed to fill this gap by investigating the spatio-temporal pattern and identifying the best tree-based ML models for determining the meteorological factors associated with waterborne diseases in Bangladesh.

Methods

This study used district-level reported cases of waterborne diseases (cholera, amoebiasis, typhoid and hepatitis A) obtained from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and meteorological data (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and precipitation) sourced from NASA for the period spanning 2017 to 2020. Exploratory spatial analysis, spatial regression and tree-based machine learning models were utilized to analyze the data.

Results

From 2017 and 2020, Bangladesh reported 73, 606 cholera, 38, 472 typhoid, 2, 510 hepatitis A and 1, 643 amoebiasis disease cases. Among the waterborne diseases cholera showed higher incidence rates in Chapai-Nawabganj (456.23), Brahmanbaria (417.44), Faridpur (225.07), Nilphamari (188.62) and Pirojpur (171.62) districts. The spatial regression model identified mean temperature (β = 12.16, s.e: 3.91) as the significant risk factor of waterborne diseases. The optimal XGBoost model highlighted mean and minimum temperature, relative humidity and precipitation as determinants associated with waterborne diseases in Bangladesh from 2017 to 2020.

Conclusions

The findings from the study, incorporating the One Health perspective, provide insights for planning early warning, prevention, and control strategies to combat waterborne diseases in Bangladesh and similar endemic countries. Precautionary measures and intensified surveillance need to be implemented in certain high-risk districts for waterborne diseases across the country.